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Deanglow
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09-25-2008, 01:36 AM
Post subject: its a tough game out there guys 400NL
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Villain is 10/5 or so. No real history, but he is a reg. I stoved me v his range and was not happy. But I can't fold right?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($450.70)
Hero (MP2) ($413.70)
MP3 ($767)
CO ($485.05)
Button ($394)
SB ($396)
BB ($400)
UTG ($607)
UTG+1 ($414.20)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A , K
3 folds, Hero raises to $16, MP3 calls $16, 4 folds
Flop: ($38) 5 , 5, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $24, MP3 raises to $64
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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i'm happy to felt this all day vs 10/5 in a 3 bet pot  As played, i just snap call and see what happen in later streets.. Caution is recommended vs uber nits.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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this is a 3bet pot like i am a good poker player
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,524
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I wonder how well (or badly) a 10/5 nit runs at 2/4.
*scratches chin*
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Keilah
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
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Eh, I have him on 55,66,TT+ against which you're about 40%. That's not terrible.
As far as how to play, this spot sucks ;[ He's only folding a real small part of his range and will shut down a lot if you hit your A or K and may slow down on a club. Oh and you could be drawing dead.
As long as he doesn't have the boat, you've got expressed odds on the FD alone, so probably call.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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I don't think he raises the flop with JJ ever, probably not QQ
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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you know this looks ugly, but a fold may be mega correct. he's so tight that his range could v easily be almost completely boats, and your hand then becomes worse than trash.
and guys calling sucks, it's raise or fold
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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looks standard
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Keilah
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
I don't think he raises the flop with JJ ever, probably not QQ
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Seriously? I would assume that for him not to lose his bankroll in a week, he'd at least have to be aggressive.
If you believe that, then fold fold fold.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Unsure as to whether i like a c-bet on this board as more and more im seeing it get raised, however i dislike a c/c or c/r a lot more.
I think you underestimating his ability to call pre and raise this with AA-77 IMO although id expect to see more AA-KK from the 11/5 numpty's
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,813
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what about see if he's good enough to fold to min-raise yeti?
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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seems like a pretty straightforward call. u raise or fold ppl are being silly. We definitely have enough equity vs his range to continue, and our fold equity vs non-air hands is 0% so its a very standard call.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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i think there's a lot of fold equity to be had here vs non air hands. lots of over pairs will make this play to question the strength of their hand.
potting it here with a 3bet will show more strength than a shove because a shove probably looks more like a draw than potting it might.
yup i pot it
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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I agree with Renton, folding would be horrible given we're 3-1 and we're only a dog to a boat/quads. Shoving here would be just as bad because when called we're maximum 33% equity, and only 24% if he never has QQ here.
Without QQ: He'll have to fold 60% of the time for a shove to be profitable
With QQ: He'll have to fold 50% of the time for a shove to be profitable.
(Check my math, I included 78s, 55, 66, QQ+ in his call allin range on this flop for the latter, no QQ for the former)
I just dont think he has enough bluffs in his range on this flop for it to be +EV, and no where near as much EV as calling getting 3-1. He'll check back all his pairs (even QQ) fearing you have the nuts and you'll get to see both cards a lot.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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yeah fwiw its either call or fold, raising is imo the worst option for sure, and theres an amount where it becomes just a fold (maybe 78?)
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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if calling is correct then raising is better. if we call and hit then most everything we beat shuts down, and reverse odds are huge enough to neutralize implied odds. a hand like this is very rarely a call since if there are enough hands in villains range to warrant continuing, we must raise since it's for value, we dont have showdown strength, and we're oop.
if ip then call might be an option, but being oop it's just burning
also imo villains range gravitates heavily towards 55 66 and AA, and vs that we're shit oh dear
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
if calling is correct then raising is better.
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n, its possible (and likely) that our equity in the pot is less than 50% but greater than 30%, in which case mathematically calling is better than raising.
Also even if our implied odds are zero then it still can be a call (and not a raise), since we are getting the correct price to continue even with little expectation of winning big win we hit.
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