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An interesting look at drawing odds

  
 
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DoGGz
Old 12-24-2005, 11:44 PM     Post subject: An interesting look at drawing odds #1 (permalink)  
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Here's a hand I came across yesterday. The turn is really the interesting part of the hand.

***** Hand History for Game 3252606466 *****
0/0 Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) - Sat Dec 24 01:10:14 EST 2005
Table Table 72427 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: sniper808808 ( $24.20)
Seat 2: mMagic_Cards ( $112.60)
Seat 3: CJCvet ( $86.60)
Seat 4: jaypizzaman ( $326.35)
Seat 5: GetMoney2325 ( $51.50)
Seat 6: wnkandgun ( $96)
CJCvet posts small blind (0.50)
jaypizzaman posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mMagic_Cards [ 7d, 5d ]
GetMoney2325 folds.
sniper808808 folds.
mMagic_Cards raises (4) to 4
CJCvet calls (3.50)
jaypizzaman folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6h, 4c, 2d ]
CJCvet checks.
mMagic_Cards bets (6)
CJCvet raises (12) to 12
mMagic_Cards calls (6)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ad ]
CJCvet bets (30)

So right here it's 30 into just over $60 for me to call. He leaves himself with 40. I have 9 diamonds that are definately good, and 6 other straight outs. Because of the hidden nature of my hand, I don't think he will be able to fold the river when I make my hand. If I'm making my hand here, I'm in on the river, if not I muck with no futher losses.

A lot of times I'd fold here, but this that in mind I'm calling 30 to win 100 at about 33% odds. I decide to call here.

mMagic_Cards calls (30)
** Dealing River ** : [ Qs ]
CJCvet bets (40.60)
CJCvet is all-In.
mMagic_Cards folds.


So, while I didn't make my hand, I still like the decision to make the turn call. Thoughts?
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Miffed22001
Old 12-25-2005, 07:15 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think this is a great post.
I guess you are adding implied odds to the real odds here on the asumption (although i'd certainty) that if you hit opp cannot put you on the hand, that is unless he really can fold!
Therefore while the math possibly is a little shaky i agree the call is correct because you can be almost certain opp will call river.
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fade177
Old 12-25-2005, 07:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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well thought out. A lot of newer players (including myself, but i'm working diligently on it) forget about implied odds. Or about the idea that a call now will cost you more further down the hand. However, I really like the play, to call 30 on the turn, normally I would have folded only thinking that I'm calling 30 to win 60 and not getting the odds, but i would have forgotten about what he would likely do on the river. I think keeping this kinda hand in mind will help me out. Good post.
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Symbolic
Old 12-26-2005, 04:59 AM #4 (permalink)  

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I agree.
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