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I'm sorry, but is this happening to me for a reason?

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LeFou

07-19-2004, 03:38 AM Post subject: I'm sorry, but is this happening to me for a reason?

#1 (permalink)

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Synopsis:
yeah, i call a little bet from the SB with AXs. But on the flop I've got four to the nut flush, top pair, and a backdoor straight. $18 to call on a $34 pot.

And I get wiped out. Again.

I need to know -- yes or no -- Am I supposed to fold to a big bet unless it's in the bag? 'Cause I keep hearing advice about making calls on the odds and it'll pay off in the long run, and I keep getting wiped out. Details below. NuWere is me.

Seat 1: checksplayed ($20.40 in chips)
Seat 2: acemanxx ($44.20 in chips)
Seat 3: microterf ($11.45 in chips)
Seat 4: 2AcesHigh ($19.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Making83 ($18.60 in chips)
Seat 7: NuWere ($25 in chips)
Seat 9: olivert ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 10: rulamj ($15 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
NuWere posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
olivert bets $1, rulamj folds, checksplayed calls $1, acemanxx calls $1, microterf folds, 2AcesHigh folds, Making83 folds, NuWere calls $0.75.

FLOP [board cards JH,2H,AS ]
NuWere bets $6, olivert bets $23.75 and is all-in, checksplayed folds, acemanxx folds, NuWere calls $17.75.

TURN [board cards JH,2H,AS,6D ]

RIVER [board cards JH,2H,AS,6D,4C ]

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LeFou

07-19-2004, 03:41 AM Post subject: by the way

#2 (permalink)

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based on his early position preflop raise, i put him on a big pair -- kings or queens. Should I have been watching for jacks?

Fnord

07-19-2004, 05:17 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

What exactly is your hand?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Toasty

07-19-2004, 07:21 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

What exactly is your hand?

hehe was thinking that myself, hard to give an answer without it.

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

Legendash

07-19-2004, 12:46 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: May 2004

Location: Crypto 6max 100NL

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he said he's drawing to the nut flush so it must be Ah Xh

"[This theory] is only useful for helping to calculate your luck odds. If you have a good read that you have a numerical advantage against your opponent, that your hand is "luckier"..."

Copyright, Youngdro 2007.

LeFou

07-19-2004, 01:18 PM

#6 (permalink)

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sorry

Ah4h

Toasty

07-19-2004, 02:33 PM

#7 (permalink)

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I think this is an easy fold on the flop.

Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .

Humphrind

07-19-2004, 03:03 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LeFou

sorry

Ah4h

So what did the other guy have?

You missed your flush, but caught 2 pair.

Did he have trips? A bigger 2 pair?

I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.

maxxscam

07-19-2004, 03:11 PM

#9 (permalink)

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he said the other guy had jacks

johnnyawe

07-19-2004, 04:44 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Sorry dude, but you had a nut flush draw and a top pair that was obviously outkicked. Forget the crap about runner runner straight draw. Do you realize that some people call an inside straight draw a "miracle" straight draw? I don't even know what the nickname is for a runner runner straight draw.

With the other guy betting the way he did, you need to put him on AK, AQ, or AJ. He ended up having JJ, which would have caught me by surprise, but its still an easy fold. With the guy betting like that, you have to figure he had top pair high kicker or better. You were clearly 35% to win and you called a bet that was 400% of the pot.

The call was definitely not in line with the pot odds. Granted, he may have been semi-bluffing a King high flush draw if he was a maniac player, but that is unlikely.

Humphrind

07-19-2004, 05:52 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by maxxscam

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeFou

Should I have been watching for jacks?

he said the other guy had jacks

Is this were he said it? This is the only place I saw a hint toward what the other guy had.

I wouldn't have put the other guy on Js specifically, but I would have feared the trips. There is no made straight or flush on the board, and he obviously doesn't have the nut flush draw, you do. But this guy is confident in something. He's not short-stacked in a tournament. He's not going to bluff when you already overbet the pot. He pushed all in because he thought you'd call.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNatural

I don't even know what the nickname is for a runner runner straight draw.

I don't know is this is official, but I call it a lucky-ass-son-of-a-bitch straight. Same name for runner-runner flush or runner-runner anything.

I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.

Fnord

07-19-2004, 06:49 PM

#12 (permalink)

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I wouldn't lay this down either given the size of the pot relative to amount of money you had left. Tough beat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

johnnyawe

07-19-2004, 07:25 PM

#13 (permalink)

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One other thing: it was not $18 to call a $34 pot. Nuwhere was only eligible for $28 in the main pot.

So that is calling 64% of the pot.

Right?

Fnord

07-19-2004, 07:37 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNatural

One other thing: it was not $18 to call a $34 pot. Nuwhere was only eligible for $28 in the main pot.

So that is calling 64% of the pot.

Right?

The pot math here is f'd up. The final pot is certainly larger than $34 or some other number is off.

Given the stack sizes, flush+ (in this case with top pair) is a reasonable hand to take to the felt or I have a big leak in my game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

koolmoe

07-19-2004, 07:46 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNatural

One other thing: it was not $18 to call a $34 pot. Nuwhere was only eligible for $28 in the main pot.

So that is calling 64% of the pot.

Right?

NuWere had olivert covered (if only by a quarter), so he was eligible for the entire pot, which was $33.75 before he called the all-in.

johnnyawe

07-19-2004, 08:19 PM

#16 (permalink)

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phhh.

nevermind. I have no clue what I'm talking about.

Nuwhere: ignore everything I've said.

Except the stuff about the miracle of miracles straight draw.

michael1123

07-19-2004, 10:54 PM

#17 (permalink)

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JJ vs. A4h with that flop:

JJ had a 69.6% chance to win. This is less than the possibility of a flush coming because of the odds of the board pairing and making a boat.

Lets say you put him on A high kicker instead, though.

AK vs. A4h with that flop:

AK has a 53% chance of winning, A4h has a 45.76% chance, and there's a 1.21% chance for a tie.

Finally, if you put the opponent on top two pair:

AJ wins 64% of the time.

As far as pot odds, by my math you have a $33.75 pot in front of you on the reraise, and have to call $17.75. So you're getting two to one on your money.

If you put them on A high kicker, you have to call. Big winner here. Against AJ its a coinflip in terms of pot odds, and against a set, you're going slightly against pot odds.

But overall, looking at the math, if you don't have a good read on your opponent, and he can have any of the above hands (or maybe worse), then you should call.

johnnyawe

07-20-2004, 12:17 AM

#18 (permalink)

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Michael, thank you for the correct analysis.

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