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If this is the right move, why does it feel so wrong?

  
 
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grnydrowave2
Old 06-03-2005, 04:53 PM     Post subject: If this is the right move, why does it feel so wrong? #1 (permalink)  
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This is the most I've ever lost in a single hand. It was absolutely devestating, but I think I made the right move.

***** Hand History for Game 2148201372 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Friday, June 03, 12:36:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 37100 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: kimeddie ( $157.83 )
Seat 3: grnydrowave2 ( $66.96 )
Seat 5: nlisthegame ( $79.1 )
Seat 1: Poker_Vybes ( $52.95 )
Seat 4: ByAThread ( $9.75 )
Seat 10: stfuhure ( $27.65 )
Seat 7: mueppo1 ( $35.05 )
Seat 6: CamperElkman ( $17.23 )
Seat 8: rugball ( $20.4 )
Seat 9: kingmax111 ( $10.3 )

CamperElkman posts small blind [$0.1].
mueppo1 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to grnydrowave2 [ Ah Qh ]
rugball folds.
kingmax111 calls [$0.25].
stfuhure folds.
Poker_Vybes folds.
kimeddie folds.
grnydrowave2 raises [$1].
>You have options at Table 36687 Table!.
ByAThread folds.
nlisthegame calls [$1].
CamperElkman calls [$0.9].
mueppo1 folds.
kingmax111 calls [$0.75].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 9h, Jh ]
>You have options at Table 36687 Table!.
CamperElkman checks.
kingmax111 checks.
grnydrowave2 bets [$3].
nlisthegame raises [$10].
CamperElkman folds.
kingmax111 is all-In.
kimeddie: nice bet
grnydrowave2 is all-In.
>You have options at Table 36687 Table!.
nlisthegame calls [$55.96].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Tc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 3c ]

nlisthegame shows [ 9d, 9c ] a full house, Nines full of tens.
kingmax111 doesn't show [ 6d, 8d ] a pair of tens.
grnydrowave2 doesn't show [ Ah, Qh ] a pair of tens.
nlisthegame wins $111.92 from side pot #1 with a full house, Nines full of tens.
nlisthegame wins $30.55 from the main pot with a full house, Nines full of tens.
ty

A 21 outer is about 84% to complete by the river right? And assuming an Ace or a Queen doesn't give me the best hand, that's still 15 outs which is 60%. Isn't it always correct to push with better than 50%, or should I have just called to see the turn?

Sorry, I couldn't get the hand converter to work.
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dalecooper
Old 06-03-2005, 05:40 PM #2 (permalink)  
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You did the right thing, which sadly does not guarantee victory. Sorry it didn't work out.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 06-03-2005, 06:21 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Not to nitpick, but 15 outs to hit turn+river is 54%, which is a lot closer to a coin flip then 60%.

While still technically a +EV play, I wonder if there's merit to seing the turn and cutting your losses if not given proper pot odds on the remaining draw. I'd doubt by the size of his raise that nlisthegame is going to be folding to much post-turn.
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dalecooper
Old 06-03-2005, 06:31 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts
Not to nitpick, but 15 outs to hit turn+river is 54%, which is a lot closer to a coin flip then 60%.

While still technically a +EV play, I wonder if there's merit to seing the turn and cutting your losses if not given proper pot odds on the remaining draw. I'd doubt by the size of his raise that nlisthegame is going to be folding to much post-turn.
If the king of hearts comes down, he might. Terrible card as far as he's concerned.

This is actually a very +EV play. There's a decent pot by the time kingmax goes all in, which means no matter how much you go in for, pot odds are healthy - much better than the coinflip (1:1) that you have with 15 clean outs, assuming those are all the outs you have & that they're all clean.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 06-03-2005, 06:52 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I didn't say there were *no* cards that would cause nlisthegame to fold, but a large majority of cards, even the ones that make his hand, I don't think would induce the fold if not bet into. Of course, I have no read on how he plays...if you can't put down a made hand regardless, I feel call is a superior play.

And yes, the raise is a +EV play (roughly $10EV, or 15%ROI), but my curiosity is that a call might result in a situation with even better +EV -- reducing your losses while maintaining the gains.
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TylerK
Old 06-03-2005, 07:20 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Not all of your outs are necessarily clean. You have to be pretty sure that the 3rd guy is going to call if you call this allin.
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
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dalecooper
Old 06-03-2005, 07:43 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TylerK
Not all of your outs are necessarily clean. You have to be pretty sure that the 3rd guy is going to call if you call this allin.
True. But conversely, if you just call and don't raise all in, you have to be pretty sure that the other player left to act won't raise - which in this case, with a vulnerable set, he very well might have.

Personally I think the best move here, as the probable favorite in the hand, is the aggressive move. I'd rather not leave it up to the other guy to decide my fate. Say you just call here and then the third player raises enough to put you all in - would you want to call, at that point? You don't know he's on a set - he could potentially have a made straight, and now your outs are looking more suspicious and you might have to let it go.

With this strong of a draw and a short stack already all in, I would much rather be the first person of the remaining two to get all his chips in the pot. If he has a stronger hand than you realized or you don't draw out, tough break.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 06-03-2005, 09:41 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Is the motivation of the all-in raise here to push nlisthegame out of the hand? By what you're saying dale, it sounds more like you'd just want the hand over with.

What I mean is, if your intention is not to push him out, there's functionally no difference between him making the bet that puts you AI and going AI yourself. Perhaps you even get to see an extra card in there that lets you make a cleaner decision.

A similar situation would be holding AA pre-flop against a pure calling station. You're high % to win, but if you're under the conditions where your AI will be called regardless of when you drop it, you're better off winning the hand first then dumping AI...same winnings, smaller losings.
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PokerPatNEU
Old 06-03-2005, 09:54 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I'd prefer to get AI on the flop with OESD + flush draw. If you just call there and a 3rd heart shows, you're opponent will have the opportunity to get away without paying you off. If you get AI every time on the flop when you're odds on favorite to catch (15 outs), you're opponents can't avoid paying you off in the long run. Especially against more than 1 opponent.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 06-03-2005, 10:08 PM #10 (permalink)  
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54% just seems like a very slim margin to push this hard. You're getting $.08 for every dollar you put in...rake takes a serious chunk out of that even.

Against more then one opponent this play becomes extremely clear...54% to win the hand gives you $.54 more per dollar per opponent.
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Greedo017
Old 06-04-2005, 02:06 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 i think a big mistake you all are making is saying that he is a favorite to win the hand on the flop. an OESFD vs. a set only wins ~40% or less. the guy with the lower straight draw really doesn't change your odds of winning, all he's doing is lowering the odds for the guy with the set. So, you're 38% to win this pot...

you'd actually be more likely to win against any made straight than you are to win when he has a set, but your odds would still only be in the 40's.

If i were you, i would call that raise, hope he calls to see a card, if he reraises hard i'd fold to the made straight or set.
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