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I suck at AK -- Pt. 3

  
 
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holdin2
Old 07-12-2006, 08:32 PM     Post subject: I suck at AK -- Pt. 3 #1 (permalink)  
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holdin2
Line please.
Villian is 23/5/2.3
From memory I think I've seen him play aggresively like this before, but never to showdown.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($8.90)
CO ($9.80)
Button ($78.80)
SB ($23.70)
Hero ($24.85)
UTG ($45.85)
UTG+1 ($10)
UTG+2 ($6.40)
MP1 ($57.10)
MP2 ($36.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K.
3 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 raises to $1.1, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.85, MP1 calls $0.85.

Flop: ($3.40) 2, Q, A (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $3.4, Hero calls $3.40, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($10.20) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $10.2, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $20.40

Bear with me while I try to think through this. Against a 5% preflop range of his...

Board: 2h Qs Ah

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 69.7348 % 61.45% 08.28% { AcKc }
Hand 2: 30.2652 % 21.98% 08.28% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }

So in general I'm ahead a lot of the time. Looking back given he was checked to and the size of his bet does this most likely say:
a) "I've got a weaker ace or pocket pair and want to take this down now"
b) "I've got AQ and you're gonna pay to draw"
c) "I'm tricky/donky and gonna play my set super fast"
d) Any of the above, "I'm hiding behind my position and your weakness"

On the flop with the pot-size I want to throw out QQ/AA and the turn bet seems a bit excessive for a set too. I'm leaning towards KK/JJ/AK/AQ/AJ/A10+s.

The turn bet does't make as much sense for KK/JJ.

Leading the flop didn't seem the thing to do....shoud I have CR the flop or turn? Edumacate me, please.
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freechus9
Old 07-12-2006, 08:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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WEAKsauce. Reraise PF. Lead flop. As played, raise flop, fold to a 3-bet. If called, lead turn, fold to a riase.
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holdin2
Old 07-12-2006, 09:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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So good amount $10 on the raise? If called lead the turn for 1/2-2/3 pot?

Pre-flop. Reraising preflop doesn't seem like my best play. I either take down $1.70 or I am playing OOP in a raised pot against a caller who likely is ahead of me.

Is my reasoning off?
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freechus9
Old 07-12-2006, 09:08 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Sounds about right. About reraising PF, I don't think that many people would be ahead of you. If you spike an ace or a king on the flop, you have a money hand. If you miss, you can c-bet accordingly and if called, check fold the rest of the hand (unless you hit your A or K).
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holdin2
Old 07-12-2006, 09:16 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I guess in my experience I don't see a lot of calls to a reraise by the BB like that ($3 atleast) . Just barely implied odds for set hunters.

On the other hand, the two hands you would be behind would more often than not 3bet/push over you.
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freechus9
Old 07-12-2006, 09:20 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I'd reraise to 4 PF. Just cause I like to bet a lot, I guess.. But I don't like giving odds to set hunters.
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holdin2
Old 07-12-2006, 09:37 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Expert EV people....reraising AK in the BB here, is:

taking down a $1.70 pot + times weaker hands call and you catch A or K or successfully CBET > abandon PF to a 3 bet/push + stacked by a set when A or K hits + CBET is raised + flop bet is raised and abandon?
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Miffed22001
Old 07-12-2006, 10:14 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 reraise preflop, if opp wants to play a big postflop pot we fold because AK no goot.
btw, he pots two streets with a flush draw on board and a flop of AQx after raising preflop. Guess what he looks to have?
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