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I said top-top 400NL

  
 
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Deanglow
Old 10-14-2011, 05:09 AM     Post subject: I said top-top 400NL #1 (permalink)  
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 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($400)
Hero (MP1) ($421)
MP2 ($605)
CO ($503)
Button ($135.50)
SB ($714.25)
BB ($713.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
1 fold, Hero bets $10, MP2 calls $10, 4 folds

Flop: ($26) 8, 6, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, MP2 calls $16

Turn: ($58) A (2 players)
Hero bets $42, MP2 raises to $114, Hero calls $72

River: ($286) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $465 (All-In), Hero

Dude is 21/17 who 3bets about 3% in this spot and 7% overall. Call open is 6% in MP and 9% overall. Fold flop cbet 48%, raise flop 17%. Fold turn 54%, raise turn 13% and has won when raised 4/5 times.

I'm 18/14 with 20% of hands pre and a high fold to 3bet.
 
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caddie444
Old 10-14-2011, 05:05 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I think the turn is the most interesting street here. Calling turn and folding this river is bad, since he likely has little to no 8's in his range after the turn raise (barring 88, and A8 which you are blocking) I mean you're basically calling turn b/c you think he has more Ax's/floated semibluffs than he does 6x or 88. If that's true you can't fold river unless he likes to semi-bluff raise turns and not jam blank rivers.


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Micro2Macro
Old 10-15-2011, 12:26 AM #3 (permalink)  
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 10-15-2011, 01:34 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 How long did he take on the both streets before raising/betting?
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 10-15-2011, 01:35 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 The right thing to do in my mind is to fold the turn and fold river but I can imagine you seeing bluffs in this spot and I think timing is very important because of that.
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Deanglow
Old 10-15-2011, 05:51 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 His timing was standard, 10 seconds on the turn maybe 3 on the river.
 
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acg123
Old 10-17-2011, 03:19 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 i think by raising turn hes setting up a river jam for almost any river. this is a very tough spot for hero and i think villian knows this which is why hes setting up the hand that way, its almost a min-raise on turn which makes his river bet slightly over pot, which means you have to be right when you call a higher % of the time. i think he has Ax,floated overs that maybe turned a FD, or a S.C. like 56,67 type hand that maybe picked up a FD to go with trips. this is the range im giving him on turn:
---
1,100 games 0.005 secs 220,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 6s 6d Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.909% 54.64% 01.27% 601 14.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 44.091% 42.82% 01.27% 471 14.00 { 88, 66, AQs-A8s, KQs, T9s, 76s, 65s }

maybe im an idiot but i think all those hands can make that play on the turn. If not please correct me as i have trouble in spots like this as well.

oh and if he barrels river with same range i did the numbers for that as well.

22 games 0.005 secs 4,400 games/sec

Board: 8c 6s 6d Ac 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.182% 68.18% 00.00% 15 0.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 31.818% 31.82% 00.00% 7 0.00 { 88, 66, AQs-A8s, KQs, T9s, 76s, 65s }

even if you drop a few of the Axs hands if hes EVER semi-bluffing i think this is +EV call right?

17 games 0.005 secs 3,400 games/sec

Board: 8c 6s 6d Ac 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.706% 64.71% 00.00% 11 0.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 35.294% 35.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { 88, 66, AQs-AJs, KQs, T9s, 76s, 65s }
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pocketfours
Old 10-20-2011, 12:57 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 wtf 66?


 
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acg123
Old 10-26-2011, 07:07 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
wtf 66?
Does he not call 66 pre? Or not raise turn to get value from our Ax hands?
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aka_red
Old 10-26-2011, 09:57 PM #10 (permalink)  
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assuming he does in fact call 66 pre (arguable) raising the turn is probably the worst thing you can do.
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pocketfours
Old 10-27-2011, 04:07 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reDZill4 View Post
assuming he does in fact call 66 pre (arguable) raising the turn is probably the worst thing you can do.
Looks like a fine way to get value from two pair.


 
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Razvan729
Old 10-28-2011, 08:12 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 why would he call 88 and not 66 pre? if we discount 66, then we can discount 6x,8x type hands and so the turn becomes a 3bet shove over his AQ,AJ,88. right?
All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
 
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aka_red
Old 10-28-2011, 05:49 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
Looks like a fine way to get value from two pair.
also a fine way to get them to fold any semi bluffs that you can stack on the river
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lancelott_
Old 11-05-2011, 07:53 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 some regs always call with 8x+ here on the turn allowing you to bluff/vbet worse to jam most rivers, and only raise bluffs. Some do balance.
No other options, but to call it down some % time, with top part of your range and make a note on the showdown, that is - if knowing more about this villian tendencies in common spots is importnant for you for future hands (wouldnt calldown vs unknow or reg whom i wont be playing much in the future fwiw)
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BankItDrew
Old 11-08-2011, 08:34 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 88 looks like the most sense here.

As played river is a fold.

There might be some merit to check calling turn then leading river/fold.


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Old 01-20-2012, 07:49 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 01-20-2012, 08:19 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Results? I feel like you have to call
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Deanglow
Old 01-21-2012, 11:10 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 He had 8888
 
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BankItDrew
Old 01-21-2012, 07:17 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Micro2Macro
Old 01-21-2012, 07:26 PM #20 (permalink)  
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 no one overbet jams double paired boards on river as a bluff...especially when it only took this guy 3 seconds to do it on this river

honestly find me a hh where this has happened that isn't fake.
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