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I hope this was a good fold

  
 
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drtofu66
Old 03-13-2006, 02:30 AM     Post subject: I hope this was a good fold #1 (permalink)  
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"Two pair is not a license to print money".

Villain is 17%/0%/1 over only 30 hands. Maybe he caught a set. Probably weak on my part (again). I just had that familiar feeling of "you are so not making money on this hand. Fold and get out while it's cheap." Does Axs, AJ, AQ, or AT raise the turn like that? I'm thinking he caught a bigger 2 pair (but then again I'm paranoid with the bad beats lately). I only have him showing down 3 hands-- one was cold calling AK, another was 43s in the BB, the last was QTo in the CO after 3 limpers.

Damn-- after looking this over, if he put me on a king, I can sort of see him reraising.

Argh.


Cryptologic
Pot Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.125/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with 8 4
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Button calls $0.25, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: 8 4 K ($1.00, 4 players)
Hero bets $0.75, UTG calls $0.75, 2 folds.

Turn: A ($2.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $4.25, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $2.25 returned to UTG.

Results:
Final pot: $6.20
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Renton
Old 03-13-2006, 02:39 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I'da called.

You are getting nearly 4:1 on your money. If your two pair is the best even 21% of the time, you produce a profit from this play. You're probably beat here more often than not, but with the dead money this is a clear call, IMO.

In a tourney I can see making this fold, but not in a cash game where you should exploit every edge you can.
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Pelion
Old 03-13-2006, 02:48 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
You are getting nearly 4:1 on your money. If your two pair is the best even 21% of the time, you produce a profit from this play.
You are ignoring river betting. Hero is out of position and will probably end up losing alot or winning a little on the river.

I might call to see what he does on the river but I think this is one of my new leaks.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

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drtofu66
Old 03-13-2006, 03:11 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
You are getting nearly 4:1 on your money. If your two pair is the best even 21% of the time, you produce a profit from this play.
You are ignoring river betting. Hero is out of position and will probably end up losing alot or winning a little on the river.

I might call to see what he does on the river but I think this is one of my new leaks.
That was where I was stuck-- the pot was getting out of control. I was sorely tempted to call, but then what do I do on the river? It'd be $4.50 for a 1/2 pot bet to lead out. I'm not sure how much I'd be willing to call on the river if he bet. Maybe less than $5, definitely not more than that.
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WildBobAA
Old 03-13-2006, 03:14 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I just push the turn.
 
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Lukie
Old 03-13-2006, 07:02 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 Stack sizes and any reads past 17/0 over 30 hands would really help those giving advice on this hand.

Especially stack sizes. First impression was to call turn, block river. But I'm usually not a big fan of the block.

I can't see myself folding to such a weeeeeeeeeeak turn bet without an uber-read. Maybe call and c/c any reasonable river bet?

Stack sizes plz...
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bearing
Old 03-13-2006, 10:05 AM #7 (permalink)  

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If the villian is as tight/weak as you say (cold call of AK etc) then what could he possibly be raising here that you beat?

If you think about it theres not many hands if any he'd do that with, especially with his mere call on the flop. If he had AQ or something he'd probably raise here IMO. A4, A8, AK, 44, 88, all hold with his play of a smooth-call and turn raise.

If he is this weak then he's not gonna suddenly get over-confident with AJ or KQ or that is he?
you cant handle the truth!
 
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drtofu66
Old 03-13-2006, 04:03 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Stack sizes and any reads past 17/0 over 30 hands would really help those giving advice on this hand.

Especially stack sizes. First impression was to call turn, block river. But I'm usually not a big fan of the block.

I can't see myself folding to such a weeeeeeeeeeak turn bet without an uber-read. Maybe call and c/c any reasonable river bet?

Stack sizes plz...
We were both ~$24. Sorry-- I keep forgetting that the convertor for Crypto doesn't include stacks.

The table had been more of the call-fold, call-call-fold, call-call-call table. Obviously I hadn't seen much of this one guy, but his raise-- which was more than the minraise, even if it was only $0.25 more-- just struck me as odd. I had the feeling I was getting milked. I probably should have called down just to see if my read was correct, even if it ended up costing me $10. I'd been taking down a few orphan pots from the blinds with nondraw heavy boards without much fight. Maybe he did slowplay AA or KK UTG to combat that.
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biondino
Old 03-13-2006, 04:35 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I have a feeling I'd have re-raised to about $10 here. But I am a reckless donk these days and he probably did have a set or, possibly, AK/KK/AA. Meh.
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drtofu66
Old 03-13-2006, 04:53 PM #10 (permalink)  
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If you reraise $10, you're ready to push on the river or to a reraise, right? Any reason not to just push AI instead of reraising $10?
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