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I have to call this, don't I...

  
 
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Warpe
Old 07-04-2006, 11:55 PM     Post subject: I have to call this, don't I... #1 (permalink)  
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 Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($96.65)
Hero ($111.80)
UTG ($101.85)
UTG+1 ($245.10)
MP1 ($72.29)
MP2 ($109.85)
MP3 ($85.72)
CO ($87.19)
Button ($97.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 8. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
4 folds, MP3 calls $1, 2 folds, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3) 6, 2, 7 (3 players)
SB bets $1.5, Hero calls $1.50, MP3 raises to $4, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($15) 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $9, SB calls $9, Hero raises to $27, MP3 calls $18, SB calls $18.

River: ($96) 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $50, SB folds, Hero ???
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Knytestorme
Old 07-05-2006, 12:37 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Pretty much.

You have the nut straight, there is no flush possible so the only thing you are worried about is quads or fh.

You could be looking at quads, as villan could have read your turn raise as a flush draw and called hoping to see a non-diamond or board pairing diamond on the river.

It could be someone playing 74 and again calling your reraise hoping to hit their FH card or see a non-diamond on the river to lead out at your busted draw.

It's hard to tell without stats but you're getting close to 3:1 on your call and if you don't put 74 in your opponents range then I'm paying quads off here. Hell, even if I put 74 in his rane from MP3 I'm paying him off here if he has me beat.

The one thing I'm not doing is laying down a nut straight with a raggy non-flush board

My thoughts on stuff
 
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benny999
Old 07-05-2006, 12:40 AM #3 (permalink)  
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why no block bet on river?

as played, i can only think of it being a definite fold when mp3 is a nit. calling is hoping for an overpair/two pair/trips/bluff at least 1/4 the time, but you'd think most of those would check behind the river, and it looks like a "please call" bet. still, i guess i'd call for those odds.
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Knytestorme
Old 07-05-2006, 12:51 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Benny, do you think those overpair/trips/etc would really check behind on the river after the way hero has played it?

He doesn't raise out of BB so you can't put him on high cards, he purely calls the bet, and then the raise on the flop so you can't put him on anything there.

He check-raises on the turn when the flush draw comes out (and that is more apparent then a really well-hidden straight here).

Then he checks the river again when no diamond hits to complete the draw.

With this play I think any one with A4, 67, JJ, TT, etc is making this bet on the river and at 3:1 with only being scared by villan having 44, 64, 74 as a starting hand I'm paying this off.

In fact, given MP3's re-raise on the flop, I'm putting him on 67.

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Warpe
Old 07-05-2006, 01:25 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benny999
why no block bet on river?
To be honest, I don't do that very much. It's area of my game that needs improving, after reraising preflop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knytestorme
Benny, do you think those overpair/trips/etc would really check behind on the river after the way hero has played it?

He doesn't raise out of BB so you can't put him on high cards, he purely calls the bet, and then the raise on the flop so you can't put him on anything there.

He check-raises on the turn when the flush draw comes out (and that is more apparent then a really well-hidden straight here).

Then he checks the river again when no diamond hits to complete the draw.

With this play I think any one with A4, 67, JJ, TT, etc is making this bet on the river and at 3:1 with only being scared by villan having 44, 64, 74 as a starting hand I'm paying this off.

In fact, given MP3's re-raise on the flop, I'm putting him on 67.
Nice analysis.

I should have raised more on the turn with two opponents...more like $36...but that's a quibble.

I almost used my time bank up thinking about this one and it came down to being afraid of a set, and if it were me I think I'd be: a) betting the turn harder multi-way with the flush draw there, and; b) reraising me a/i.

So, yeah, I called.
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benny999
Old 07-05-2006, 01:29 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Yea, the check/raise, check line looks really weird to MP3, and he could definitely put hero on some sort of a missed draw, which increases odds of a bluff.

But as for MP3, I don't think trips/quads are likely (or anything with a 4 actually) because A4 or 44 wouldn't raise the flop usually. A flop raise usually represents at least top pair and usually above a 4 kicker. So I could be off, but IMO villain's line fits with 22/66/77, but about as much as a flopped overpair/2pr/bluff.
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Warpe
Old 07-05-2006, 01:37 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 Results:
Hero shows [ 5d, 8h ] a straight, four to eight
MP3 shows [ Qd, 7c ] two pairs, sevens and fours.
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benny999
Old 07-05-2006, 02:09 AM #8 (permalink)  
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nice...i dunno what he was doing on the river, but he probably wouldn't call 50 on the end and you got 50 out of him still. his bet seems dumb to me though. i think usually a block bet gets you more value+info, but what do i know, still stuck on 50nl...
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Miffed22001
Old 07-05-2006, 02:52 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 why check the river?
If he has a boat he lets you know pretty quick
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Muxy
Old 07-05-2006, 04:13 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
why check the river?
If he has a boat he lets you know pretty quick
my thoughts exactly.
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Renton
Old 07-05-2006, 04:47 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 The average fish doesn't raise a set on this flop. I am looking to get this all in on the river if my villain in any way exhibits fish-dom.
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Warpe
Old 07-05-2006, 02:12 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muxy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
why check the river?
If he has a boat he lets you know pretty quick
my thoughts exactly.
How much should I have bet?
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Fnord
Old 07-05-2006, 09:20 PM #13 (permalink)  
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I like a crying push here.

Worse hands call a bet but don't often bet. With less than pot behind, folding sucks. I see no reason to put him on a hand without showdown value.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 07-05-2006, 10:14 PM #14 (permalink)  
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i wrote a reply but its not here.

nothing scares me about the board pairing 4s, its not like it paired a flop card and now maybe 2 pair got there.

I think you're losing a lot of value here not raising this.

And i dont see why you checked in the first place, though it seems to have worked out for you.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Fnord
Old 07-05-2006, 10:16 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
I think you're losing a lot of value here not raising this.
Check stack sizes. If $50 isn't all of the money, it's really close.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Miffed22001
Old 07-05-2006, 11:46 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 as played id call, id like to push but id have to have a real feel opp has no boat and he'll call the push.
You had to bet this river for value though, to that i agree. I think its difficult for a set to not 3bet/push the turn because your holding is rather unlikely and it is party afterall.
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