|
taipan168
|
05-19-2007, 01:19 AM
Post subject: How's my bet sizing on this hand? (50NL)
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 10,441
|
|
No real reads, opp just joined the table.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($30.15)
SB ($90.40)
BB ($48.75)
UTG ($13.90)
UTG+1 ($60.60)
Hero ($79)
MP2 ($26.05)
MP3 ($54.55)
CO ($25.25)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A , A .
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 5 folds, BB calls $1.50.
Flop: ($4.25) 9 , 2 , K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4.
Turn: ($12.25) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10.
River: ($32.25) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
ShowMeAtlas
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 393
|
|
If he''s going to call big bets then by all means bet the shite of it! nh
EDIT: What would you have done if he had CRAI on the turn?
|
|
|
|
Miffed22001
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ShowMeAtlas
If he''s going to call big bets then by all means bet the shite of it! nh
EDIT: What would you have done if he had CRAI on the turn?
|
turn is an easy fold if he does that.
i like this, he looks you up lot with tp on the turn more than he has a flush IMO.
|
|
|
|
zook
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
|
|
I take a chance and push river. He has pot behind and could easily look you up with a worse flush.
|
|
|
|
Vi-Zer0Skill
|
|
Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by zook
I take a chance and push river. He has pot behind and could easily look you up with a worse flush.
|
I agree with this. If he will call anything more than a small value bet on the river, i think you gain value by pushing this river as opposed to a 2/3 PSB.
(EV Analysis...)
Assume villan has TP or a flush, K or Q-J high) The flush hands make up 50% of his range, TP makes up the other 50%.
Villan will call 1/5PSB 100% (never folding a hand he called with on the turn)
Villan will call 2/3PSB 75% (never fold flushes, sometimes fold TP. This % may actually be a little high)
Villan will call PSB 50% (he will sometimes fold his Q-J high flush, but sometimes Hero call with TP)
$6 x 1 = $6
$20 x .75 =$15
$32 x .5 = $16
Even though the %'s are approximate, 2/3PSB vs AI is close. However it is likely that pushing AI is even more +EV since the likelihood of villan calling 2/3PSB with a hand like TP is probably less than 50%, the % i used for my rough EV calculation.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Carroters
Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
|
|