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mxiu
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06-26-2009, 09:09 PM
Post subject: how is this
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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villain is a 12/10/2.6 half stacker over 1.1k hands, 70% c-bet. preflop is kinda meh i know
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($117.90)
BB ($156.40)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($427.50)
MP1 ($70.60)
Hero (MP2) ($106.30)
MP3 ($52.20)
CO ($149.90)
Button ($103.20)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6 , 6
UTG bets $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 5 folds
Flop: ($9.50) 7 , 5 , 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero raises to $22
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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I don't hate it but it's not great. I'd just call and probably fold turn considering he's unlikely to get committed without a pair on the turn. Also he's utg so he's repping strength. As you said, pre is pretty bad unless blinds are fishy.
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because he's 1/2 stack he will shove qq-aa for value (and sets if he has them) and probably call,check/call JJ and maybe TT for bluff catch, only fold 88-99 usually.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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The semibluff bluff needs to work 56% of the time based on FE alone. If his preflop range is 55+, AQ+ you fold out 32 combos of ovecards and 49 combos of pairs/sets/SDs stay in, which is 40% of his range, plus our 36% equity when called, so this is a +EV bluff.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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this is bad vs half stack UTG opener. If you dont feel comfortable stacking off on the flop, then you should not raise and bloat the pot in position. Just call and see his turn action.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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fold preflop, as played call, with only 50 bbs i doubt he'll fold an overpair.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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just call, we can show this down if he's not too interested
and if he has us crushed we can suck out
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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w/e it can't be that bad
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
The semibluff bluff needs to work 56% of the time based on FE alone. If his preflop range is 55+, AQ+ you fold out 32 combos of ovecards and 49 combos of pairs/sets/SDs stay in, which is 40% of his range, plus our 36% equity when called, so this is a +EV bluff.
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This is assuming a 100% cbet though, which is a bad assumption.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
The semibluff bluff needs to work 56% of the time based on FE alone. If his preflop range is 55+, AQ+ you fold out 32 combos of ovecards and 49 combos of pairs/sets/SDs stay in, which is 40% of his range, plus our 36% equity when called, so this is a +EV bluff.
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This is assuming a 100% cbet though, which is a bad assumption. |
His EP range is stronger and probably more likely to be cbet. If you don't think he cbets any non-pair hands then obviously just call, but if you leave out AQ of his cbetting range this is still a +EV bluff. You would have to assume he c/f all overs here for the bluff to be bad.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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I agree his cbet is going to be higher from utg but not 100%.
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
I agree his cbet is going to be higher from utg but not 100%.
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Alright well we only need his cbet range to be >20% air here to bluff raise profitably.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
I agree his cbet is going to be higher from utg but not 100%.
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Alright well we only need his cbet range to be >20% air here to bluff raise profitably. |
not if he sticks it in here with hands that beat us
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