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Hand Analysis: No way to win???

  
 
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Soothsayer
Old 04-13-2008, 05:26 PM     Post subject: Hand Analysis: No way to win??? #1 (permalink)  

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Soothsayer
Ok so bad beats are one thing but this hand really bothered me. I'm no pro, so I probably could've played it better. But I can't think of any way this could've ended in my favor. So this has been stewing in my brain for a while.

This was maybe 10 hands into the tourney so everyone had near $3000 in chips.

I was dealt QhKd in middle position with one limper already on the table.
Raise to 60. (3xBB)
4 callers including both blinds.

Flop Qc 3s Qc
Checked to me where i bet $120. One caller.

Turn 8h
Villain checks to me. At this point I'm thinking either he's desperate chasing a flush, has the last Q, or thinks I'm bluffing and is calling me out with any PP.
I raise $200. Villain calls.

River Jd
Villain bets $860.
At this point I am not pleased. If he came this far without the the last Q, he's a damn fool that missed his flush and is clinging to his chips; or he flopped the nuts holding 33. I thought that either option was quite unlikely as 33 would've played much stronger on the turn since I'm apparently aggressive and going no where. My fear was of AQ or QJ. But this wasn't a situation I could lay down. So in 3 bet and he shoves.

Villain shows QJ and a full house to my three of a kind with KQ.


Now what bothers me most isn't that I was very much ahead until the river. Suck outs happen, big deal. What bothers me is that I couldn't have played this hand any other way. Even if I shoved on the flop or turn, there's no way he would've folded QJ with three of a kind on the flop. My best hope would've been to develop psychic powers and realize that my plan to get all his chips in the pot would've backfired and muck the hand early while I was ahead.

I don't know. Oh knowledgeable community, shed some light on this situation.
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spoonitnow
Old 04-13-2008, 06:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 You said there are two Q 's on the flop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

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I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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martindcx1e
Old 04-13-2008, 06:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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This is what is known as a cooler.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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swiggidy
Old 04-13-2008, 06:44 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 welcome to FTR.

Maybe you know the table, but I probably don't raise KQo in MP. If you do raise, raise more. Rule of thumb is 3bb + 1/limper, so 80, that deep I prob use the cash rule 4bb +1/limper and go to 100 (if I decide to raise).

4 callers, so pot is 240 on the flop, bet at least 200. 1/2 PSB are for rainbow flops HU, not 4-way pots with the essential nuts.

Turn is 480, you bet 200 giving him huge odds to call, make it prob 2/3 pot (which if you had bet like a man on the flop, the pot would be 650 so your bet would be 400. now pot is $1500 on river and it's a trivial call when he open pushes.) Even though he catches his 3 outer you're happy he called.

As played, why push the river if you think you're behind? Is he ever folding AQ/QJ/33? What hand calls that you beat?

All in all this is a terribly played hand. Things you don't appear to understand:
pot odds
implied odds
starting hand selection
value betting
position

Read all the stickies here, get Harington on Holdem I and read that.

gl
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Seabass
Old 04-13-2008, 08:53 PM     Post subject: Re: Hand Analysis: No way to win??? #5 (permalink)  
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Welcome.
swiggidy made some good points.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Soothsayer
River Jd
Villain bets $860.
At this point I am not pleased. If he came this far without the the last Q, he's a damn fool that missed his flush and is clinging to his chips; or he flopped the nuts holding 33. I thought that either option was quite unlikely as 33 would've played much stronger on the turn since I'm apparently aggressive and going no where. My fear was of AQ or QJ.

But this wasn't a situation I could lay down. So in 3 bet and he shoves.
So on the river you put villan on a missed flush draw or a better hand, AQ/QJ/33? So why do you 3bet? Your hoping he is holding a worse Q? He check called twice, what does his river bet size tell you?
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aka_red
Old 04-14-2008, 12:05 AM     Post subject: Re: Hand Analysis: No way to win??? #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seabass
what does his river bet size tell you?
sucker punchhhhh

dont be mad that v is luckier than you and dont shove on river also i can see jj floating you like this so
[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
 
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Soothsayer
Old 04-14-2008, 12:06 AM #7 (permalink)  

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Soothsayer
Thanks Swiggidy and Seabass but not feeling too welcome.

Sorry, Spoonitnow. The second Q is an s.

My thought process was that I wanted a call on the flop to extract some more chips. Otherwise I'd scare everyone away.

Thought process on 5th street was that I had a likely win excluding 3 possible hands and he was desperately bluffing out his missed flush. I thought the probability of all 4 Q's being on the board was slim and I took a jab at it.

Swiggidy, you mentioned starting hand selection. Are you saying the I shouldn't have even openned with KQ at all and folded it preflop?
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aka_red
Old 04-14-2008, 12:28 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soothsayer
Thought process on 5th street was that I had a likely win excluding 3 possible hands and he was desperately bluffing out his missed flush.
then call hes its sooo unlikly that a busted flush draw will shove over you.
also your shove is prolly only gonna get called by better hands. i cant really see a pp or qt calling a shove which are pretty much the only hands you can beet.
[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
 
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d0zer
Old 04-14-2008, 12:50 AM #9 (permalink)  
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d0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the rough
 Yeah call river. His lead after all that calling screams bluff, slowplay finally trying to cash in, or less likely (but as in this case) the river hitting.

None of the above calls for a river raise.

Oh, and I ain't no SnG expert, but in 1st round tourney I play tighter than raising KQo in MP after a limper.
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