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JeffreyGB
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05-26-2007, 03:01 AM
Post subject: Gutshot + Flushdraw (NL$200)
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Assuming villian has an ace, I'm 45% or better to win on the flop. Should I be betting that harder after the min-raise or does being OOP make just calling a better play? Do you lead the turn? As played, do you check/fold or bet/fold on a blank river?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($84.80)
SB ($148)
BB ($105.40)
UTG ($55.20)
Hero ($206.70)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($218.85)
CO ($189.75)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K , Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, MP1 calls $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, 3 folds.
Flop: ($21) 4, J, A (3 players)
Hero bets $14, MP1 raises to $28, CO folds, Hero calls $14.
Turn: ($77) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks.
River: ($77) J (2 players)
Hero bets $40, MP1 calls $40.
Final Pot: $157
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I like 3-betting this flop b/c you're oop and these flop minraises often don't mean shit. I make it $100 and call a push. The only hand you don't have decent equity against is Asxs. Gambooool!
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dsmrolla06
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: South Bend IN
Posts: 724
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I like 3-betting this flop b/c you're oop and these flop minraises often don't mean shit. I make it $100 and call a push. The only hand you don't have decent equity against is Asxs. Gambooool!
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i agree completely here. I dont really like just calling because he then takes control of the hand and you arent putting him to any decisions.
As a side note, how come your are only raising 3x pf?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Yea, in 3betting the flop just assume he was a man and made it $40 to go. Then you can make it around $100. On the turn you'll be committed to any bet he makes so you can push and gain some FE to make the play more +EV.
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dsmrolla06
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: South Bend IN
Posts: 724
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Also by just calling, its going to be harder to get all your money in when the spade or gutshot hit.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsmrolla06
As a side note, how come your are only raising 3x pf?
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No particular reason...that's my standard raise. What's yours, and why more?
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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In full-ring I like 3.5xbb in the first two positions and 4xbb+1bb/limper everywhere else.
Also, I didn't mention in my first post, but with the right read (passive nit) I don't mind folding to the minraise.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Folding is worse than pushing because if we have 40% equity in the pot there is enough dead money to push isn't there?
It would end up being a push of $166 to win $234
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I believe it's $180 to win $229 which means pushing isn't good unless he has a really wide range. By raising to $100 you're just creating a situation where you have to call a push even though you're almost always behind if you do. That's why this is a tough decision and you should consider folding (or calling if he's really bad) if you don't think he has a wide range here.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I believe it's $180 to win $229 which means pushing isn't good unless he has a really wide range. By raising to $100 you're just creating a situation where you have to call a push even though you're almost always behind if you do. That's why this is a tough decision and you should consider folding (or calling if he's really bad) if you don't think he has a wide range here.
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Could you elaborate on this a bit more? How tight are you thinking? I thought there was very very little chance that villian was doing this with less than an ace. If that's the case, shouldn't I at least be calling for the 25% chance of hitting on the next card?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I just shove the flop.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
I believe it's $180 to win $229 which means pushing isn't good unless he has a really wide range. By raising to $100 you're just creating a situation where you have to call a push even though you're almost always behind if you do. That's why this is a tough decision and you should consider folding (or calling if he's really bad) if you don't think he has a wide range here.
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Could you elaborate on this a bit more? How tight are you thinking? I thought there was very very little chance that villian was doing this with less than an ace. If that's the case, shouldn't I at least be calling for the 25% chance of hitting on the next card? |
Ignore me, I'm a moran. No reason for folding here ever. It's call or raise. Pushing is bad imo b/c there isn't much dead money and it probably has less fold equity than a pot-sized raise.
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Cocco_Bill
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 1,254
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i dont like your river bluff
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sejje
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 883
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Your fold equity is very important in this hand. Try and win the pot on the flop. I 3-bet push.
As played on the flop, I'm not betting the river. If I do bet the river, it's not for that terrible amount.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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i like a 4x raise in early position at low stakes.
You can 3bet the flop or you can call. In this situation I think they are both about equally good in different ways.
Im not good enough to tell you exactly which one is better in this spot, but I definitely like calling here a lot. He's giving you ridic good pot odds, your hand isn't a favorite over his range, and he doesn't fold to a threebet that much considering he raised multiway on this board.
On the river you need to lead strongly or check/fold. I like check/fold best. It would appear that you were aiming for him to fold exactly a busted draw, cuz thats all he folds to that bet; and given that you have KsQs and that theres an offsuit ace out, a busted draw is highly unlikely.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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trying to get all in as a dog is foreign to me. why exactly do you like this? do you think there's enough FE that the play makes money overtime without factoring image changes, or do you think the image it produces is valuable? the latter doesn't seem likely since it's not mentioned to be against a regular.
is this recommened at lower stakes? i play this hand a little more passively, but i also am not that good and dont play against aggros. i imagine playing these type of situations more aggressively provokes greater swings.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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getting all in as a dog is fine if you are getting the right pot odds to do so, and almost any pot odds are good enough to justify getting all in with 12 outs.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
trying to get all in as a dog is foreign to me. why exactly do you like this? do you think there's enough FE that the play makes money overtime without factoring image changes, or do you think the image it produces is valuable? the latter doesn't seem likely since it's not mentioned to be against a regular.
is this recommened at lower stakes? i play this hand a little more passively, but i also am not that good and dont play against aggros. i imagine playing these type of situations more aggressively provokes greater swings.
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Learn to play your draws more aggressively. At your level do this against passive opponents where you do have some fold equity. That coupled with a 12+ out draw means there doesn't need to be much dead money in the pot for it to be a profitable play.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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thanks.
i actually did play a hand very similar to this (twelve outs) and bet/reraised all in on the flop in a 3-way pot and was against a set and didn't draw out, so it's not completely foreign to me. just haven't been successful with it in the past since my experience is that deep stacks dont like to get it in without monsters.
i'll work on it. kinda figured it's something to do at higher, more aggressive stakes where players play marginal hands fast and heavy, and more metagame is needed.
the odds situation is weird, though. i see how we're getting odds to call, but to raise? if we're a dog then raising can only be correct if FE odds and/or image alterations are enough.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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I think either you push the flop, or call/check turn and then decide what to do on river based on outcome of cards. I pass on the bluff, villain showed strength on flop and you checked the turn.
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