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Miffed22001
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04-25-2006, 10:51 AM
Post subject: Gulp....almost
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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100NL
Btn hasnt done anything i wouldnt expect from a 100nl. Made a transparent bluff when a scare card hit at which point i pushed and showed him i could read him. But this was close.
Important factor i thought was his range which is why i had to think, for once i didnt think this was a no brainer with effective stacks.
(6 max table cant find the hh so apologies)
Btn $350
Miffed (bb) $390
Dealt to Miffed  
Btn raises to $2
Miffed reraises $10
Btn raises to $25.
(miffed thinks damn hard then calls)
Flop  :Ks:  (pot $50~)
Miffed bets $35
btn pushes the the lot
Miffed thinks even harder and calls... 
What do you think?
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ville18
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Yo mama
Posts: 223
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NICE RIVER FISH
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ville18
NICE RIVER FISH
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shhhhhhhhh
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AHiltz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Coldbrook, NS
Posts: 1,589
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You are ahead of a flush draw, AA and QQ. The likelyhood that he has KK and you both flopped your sets is minimal. Unless you can put him on KK for whatever reason, call.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AHiltz
You are ahead of a flush draw, AA and QQ. The likelyhood that he has KK and you both flopped your sets is minimal. Unless you can put him on KK for whatever reason, call.
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300bbs stacks, pot size
You think he pushed AA/QQ ?
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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omigod
this situation SUCKS.
If I am your villain here, I have exactly KK every time. I guess I should say that I probably wouldn't play it like this, but if I did, I'd have cowboys. The only other thing that would even remotely make sense would be AsQs, but the only time I'd ever put in a 3rd raise preflop there was if you were an absolute maniac and you were repopping me every time preflop or something. But very unlikely, plus there's only 1 card combo of AsQs. Againt me, you should pass.
If villain's range expands beyond that with any significance, you should call. Sorry for not being much of a help.
Quote:
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You are ahead of a flush draw, AA and QQ. The likelyhood that he has KK and you both flopped your sets is minimal. Unless you can put him on KK for whatever reason, call.
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Lol what flush draw is possible when miffed calls the 3rd raise preflop? And how often does a hand like QQ that can't even beat top pair push >300bb in the pot? Same applies for such a miserable board if he has AA. Also, I want to Fix part of your post.
Quote:
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The likelyhood that he has KK and you both flopped your sets is very probable, given the action.
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There, FYP.
Miffed I think this is a judgement call. Really depends on what you think about the guy at the time. From my past experience with solid players at NL100, this will be kings every time. Against those types, it's not worth 3 stacks here, and I really don't think it's close.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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easy call against a bad player.
easy fold against a good player.
don't forget about AK.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I put him on AA or KK. Pushing AA there is ballsy and borderline EV at best, but since you led out he's not putting you on a set, so it's possible that he's just trying to protect his hand.
No other hands make any sense to me. QQ wouldn't play the flop that way unless the player was an idiot; AsQs probably wouldn't put in a third raise pre-flop unless there's something about your table image you're not telling us. One possibility no one has mentioned is AK, but it doesn't seem like AK with a deep stack like that would be wanting to get a giant pot going with another very deep stack.
AA or KK it is. Folding your set there would be a hell of a fold, nonetheless. You've already put $60 in the pot, and got the flop you wanted (although jack high would clearly be better, and rainbow better still). You're not pot-committed but in the moment, you're psychologically committed.
I think given an hour to think this over, I'd fold it. In the heat of battle, I'd probably call, and if he had kings it would be no great surprise.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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I think given an hour to think this over, I'd fold it. In the heat of battle, I'd probably call, and if he had kings it would be no great surprise.
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I agree with this.
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r8ed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,524
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
don't forget about AK.
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Some people will play AK this way at 100NL Even AQs is possible and he would have tons of outs. Not sure about this guy but I call. That's why you have an adequate bankroll. Plus, you may suck out.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
easy fold against a good player.
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Middle set (even bottom set) on a flop that isn't three to the straight or flush is never, ever an easy fold.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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a good villain never pushes 4 stacks without the nuts here, because he has just as much to fear about hero. Both's players' play in this hand is extremely consistant with KK.
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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if i had K K in this situation i wouldn't push all in on the flop i wouldn't be pushing all in until the turn if you're getting into me like that..
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
a good villain never pushes 4 stacks without the nuts here, because he has just as much to fear about hero. Both's players' play in this hand is extremely consistant with KK.
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Depends how good this villain is, exactly. Hero's lead-out on the flop is right out of Super/system... flop a set against a raiser out of position, and lead out to get paid off. Yet despite the fact that Brunson wrote about this forever ago, it's still not a common move at most levels of no limit. A lot of pretty good players still fall back on the check-raise because it's so easy, and when someone re-raised you before the flop, you know you're getting another good-sized bet out of them no matter what the flop is, if you check.
So if villain is solid but not advanced, he sees a guy betting into him, thinks to himself "He's got a good pair, maybe AK or KQ" and then comes over the top of him with his AA. That's common. ...But for 4 buy-ins? Maybe not so much. That does seem a little too heavy to be strictly a protection bet. But then again, why is he betting so hard if he has the nuts, and has no good reason to put his opponent on a monster as well? He doesn't know hero has a set of jacks - why push so hard with a set of kings? He would scare off QQ and even AK here most of the time. Only JJ is near-guaranteed to give him action. His bet is very risky if he has AA, but strangely over-aggressive with top set.
I think you could make a compelling argument either way, depending just how good we're going to say he is, hypothetically. If it was Barry Greenstein, I think I'd fold the jacks. If it's just your average pretty good player on the internet, I think it's a close decision.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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This reminds me a lot of the hand i posted last week where I called a reraise preflop with a small pair and the read that villain had AA, flopped the set, and just open pushed, and he called for the stack.
The difference between that hand and this one, is that I had a strong AA read, whereas that doesn't quite exist here. Is this guy capable of fourbetting with the second best starting hand? Wouldn't KK have just called the reraise?
I think he has AA a majority of the time here. He's obviously a poor player (he minraised preflop), and poor players always slow play monster hands. I think this is a clear call, now that I have reanalyzed it a little bit.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Besides the min-raise, we also should remember this is 6-max. Players acting with comical aggression to protect hands is pretty common.
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bigredhoss
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 127
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there are some players who simply won't push on this board with anything but KK (as Lukie pointed out) and you can make a tough but solid fold vs them.
however vs the majority of players call is good here, esp. considering 6max you should see AA here a lot.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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So wha' happened?
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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HE had KKK and miffed rivered a jack.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ville18
NICE RIVER FISH
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I'm guessing he quite obviously had KK and he hit his 1 outer.
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