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Irisheyes
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02-04-2006, 04:08 PM
Post subject: Guess his hand
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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50nl, full stacks.
I call UTG with 99. 2 callers in MP and Button makes it 7x which is a pretty standard raise. Me and other limpers call. Flop comes 49Q rainbow. Checks round to button who bets $2 into a $12 pot. I raise to $7. Folds back to button who reraises to $25.
Its obvious what the villan has?
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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My instinct says QQ because $2 seems a very strange bet for AQ or even AA (but only if he seems like a solid player). It is a rainbow flop without much chance of a straight draw so i guess he could have AQ (or KQ since he is button) or an overpair. He could also be raising 44 from the button.
From his point of view a huge % of the time you will have either a missed low PP or a set (or maybe overcards) so he needs to bet small value bets with those hands. When you raise he hopes you have hit your set in which case all the money is going in so he reraises.
If he has an overpair or AQ I think he probably bets out at least half pot or goes for a checkraise if he expects you to minraise his cbet with any 2.
With no reads at all at 10NL I am never laying down middle set on a rainbow, unconnected flop. If this guy seems solid then it could be a fold. If he seems crazy or no reads then its always a call/push.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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QQ makes the most sense (not that I'd play it like him), but I'm still paying it off...
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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... He's playing it exactly like he has QQ... That's so hard to laydown, I think either way, push or fold, is fine here.
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Gareth
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: FlopTurnRivered
Posts: 246
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QQ is the first thing that jumps to your mind - his bet is just screaming out to be raised.
He could also of done this with an over pair though, since he raised preflop he would expect someone who caught part of this flop to check to him - so he bets $2 hoping that even a marginal hand will raise him here.
I would have lead out here with a bet of about $8 - hoping he has an overpair and reraises me - and look to get all the money in.
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"To see what is right, and not to do it, is want of courage or of principle." - Confucius
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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I might pay it off because that is probably the worst possible way to play QQ. If he makes a play like that I just consider him a dipshit thus making it possible he is doing this with KK-AA.
But maybe that's just what he wanted me to think....
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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I've never folded a set at the flop.
So pay off QQ here, it might be AA/KK too. With that 2$ donk bet, his range might even include AQ/KQ.
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