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Good river spot to shove bluff? 100NL

  
 
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
Old 05-13-2009, 02:20 AM     Post subject: Good river spot to shove bluff? 100NL #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 10/9/3.4 over 2.3k hands. No reads. He doesn't see me as a crazy player, prlly a TAGG with a little bit on the nittier side.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) -

BB ($20.50)
UTG ($102)
UTG+1 ($18.50)
MP1 ($83.20)
Hero (MP2) ($101.90)
CO ($144)
Button ($17)
SB ($195.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
UTG bets $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 4 folds

Flop: ($9.50) , , (2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($21.50) (2 players)
UTG bets $16, Hero calls $16

River: ($53.50) (2 players)
UTG bets $21, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $75.90 (All-In)
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ZwiFT
Old 05-13-2009, 02:36 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Just gonna drop by and say i fold this 100% of the time preflop
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mixchange
Old 05-13-2009, 03:00 AM #3 (permalink)  
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You need a read to make this bluff. I wrote my post then looked up again and realized you have 2.3K hands with him.At what point are you going to be picking up reads on him? I think you must have some already... I definitely have a bunch of notes on every player I have 1K+ hands on, plus memory reads. how many tables are you playing?

He is gonna show up with 2p or a set, so you are asking him to make a pretty big laydown. I find it hard to evaluate whether or not someone will make the laydown until I have a decent amount of hands with them. It is a good spot to bluff if he can make a big laydown


i'm interested in the PF discussion, as I like a call considering people will 3bet UTG raises less and be more likely to flat. KQs is good multiway.

Also, a very tight UTG range is basically pairs and AK, maybe AQs. You will be able to bluff him if you do end up HU on a lot of Q, K, or A high flops. If there's only one high card, everyone auto cbets and then many people just check/give up turn. If they check flop they are doing so to a) fold b) call get value from your air when they have a pair just under the TP (JJ on Q high board) and eventually fold to pressure if you continue betting
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JinxT4
Old 05-13-2009, 03:46 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Just gonna drop by and say i fold this 100% of the time preflop
Nit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mixchange
It is a good spot to bluff if he can make a big laydown
+1. I would think even most nits would fold any non-J hands here, but players' hero calls never cease to amaze me.
[04:18] <+Bbickes> do u has teh agoraphobia?
[04:18] <+fat> im agressive yes
 
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pokerfan
Old 05-13-2009, 04:09 AM #5 (permalink)  
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fold preflop in this position all day vs 10/9 UTG opener. Its just a little risky to bluff/shove on this river when villain already put half stack in the pot. Hmmm, why did you call on the flop vs his top range dominating hands??
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mcatdog
Old 05-13-2009, 05:20 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Why did you call the turn? This seems terrible.
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mixchange
Old 05-13-2009, 06:34 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Why did you call the turn? This seems terrible.
This is really important. I just responded to the bluff, I agree vs. a 10/9 we are against possible: top 2, and of course a ton of set combos. He can have JJ too and will just snap river.
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Miffed22001
Old 05-13-2009, 07:13 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 i think every street is poor - horrible reverse implied odds
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ZwiFT
Old 05-13-2009, 09:46 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I mean i fold AQ here and im not a nit

What is his range, 77+, AQ, AK

edit: preflop
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badgers
Old 05-13-2009, 10:11 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
I mean i fold AQ here and im not a nit
+1

I really don't like this...
3k post - Return of the blog!
 
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Old 05-13-2009, 10:16 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JinxT4
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Just gonna drop by and say i fold this 100% of the time preflop
Nit.
Two bad things can happen:
1. CO/BU call and you're stuck in between someone who has a strong hand (UTG) and someone who has position on you (BU)
worse, you're acting right after the preflop aggressor so you have no idea wtf the button will do
2. one of the four players after you 3b because they are getting better odds on their bluff since it looks like you have a shit hand that you're going to fold to a 3b

now if you flat AK or QQ against a tight UTG raiser I have no problem with that because you're not that worried about getting squeezed since you can backraise the squeezer

One bad thing already happened:
you are in the pot against someone with a range something like AK,AJs+,KQs,77+ and you have reverse implied odds
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Old 05-13-2009, 11:23 AM #12 (permalink)  
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I don't think there are a lot of Jx hands in your range after the flop, so I guess you're repping the flush/hoping he can't handread.
Unless you call preflop with AJ and he knows it, which i'm pretty sure isn't the case.
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