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Good line? 200 NL 10-max Party

  
 
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spino1i
Old 01-27-2006, 09:08 PM     Post subject: Good line? 200 NL 10-max Party #1 (permalink)  
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Location: 25/50's f'in hard!
Posts: 893
spino1i
Villain is TAG.. do you like my line here or not and why? Do you agree with turn cold call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($215.70)
SB ($538.05)
BB ($355.13)
UTG ($198)
UTG+1 ($204.40)
MP1 ($189.25)
Hero ($159.80)
MP3 ($215.55)
CO ($162.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K. SB posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($21) 8, 6, 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($21) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12.

River: ($45) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $22, Hero raises to $60...
BR now: $106900
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dsaxton
Old 01-27-2006, 09:38 PM #2 (permalink)  
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dsaxton
It's clear he probably is not folding if he has a straight or better, so I think the question becomes, how likely is it that he can't beat a straight when he bets $22 on the river (since I think these are the only hands which you can expect to profitably bluff out here)? I think against a typical tight aggressive opponent, the likelihood is too low for bluffing to make sense.

The turn call is not bad, as there are many cards you can catch which will allow you to bluff the river, given his likely range of starting hands (plus the fact that you might even have the best hand), but once he bets $22 on the river, I think you have to fold.
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