|
wonderland
|
09-23-2008, 08:54 AM
Post subject: The future of online poker - to fish or not to fish
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 478
|
|
Hi chaps.
So, i'm new to online poker, been playing for a few months now and breaking even. As a noob i've been doing a lot of reading, mainly articles here and in 2+2 etc.
Man if i had a buck for every time someone wrote: "back when it was fishy" and talked about the golden age of online poker (like two years ago).
So, we can assume that, as EVERYTHING in this day and age to do with making money is, online poker will contain less and less fish. Or can we? This is what i propose to discuss. What are the implications of the 'pond drying up' so to speak.
How does online poker look in the future and what would happen if skill was very similar per table (hypothetically speaking of course).
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
daven
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,807
|
|
fish is relative - there are always barrels full of them
|
|
|
|
Keilah
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
|
|
erm. I disagree. Top players will spank me like no tomorrow, but not nearly as bad as I'll spank the Sunday donk who 'bankrolls' himself with $67 and gives online poker a try.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Online poker will always be profitable. Do you not read the posts here?
|
|
|
|
The_OG_Rocco
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by daven
fish is relative - there are always barrels full of them
|
Actually, If you saw that one episode of 'Mythbusters'.
Shooting fish in a barrel is not quite as easy as you would think. Because the water usually stops the bullets from actually hitting the fish.
|
|
|
|
wufwugy
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
|
|
im suspicious that 'back when it was fishy' was no more fishy than now.
|
|
|
|
Stacks
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by The_OG_Rocco
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by daven
fish is relative - there are always barrels full of them
|
Actually, If you saw that one episode of 'Mythbusters'.
Shooting fish in a barrel is not quite as easy as you would think. Because the water usually stops the bullets from actually hitting the fish. |
Actually it's just "God" protecting the fish from the bullet. He's a good man.
|
|
|
|
Deanglow
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
|
|
Nothing compares to the old 2004 Party Poker. It used be worse (late 06 and 07) but the games have gotten better since.
|
|
|
|
badgers
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
|
|
Internet poker might become a lot more difficult in the future and a lot less profitable. As the games get harder sometimes the winning regs aat one level become the fish, and then they need to move down and have halved their income. Just a random badly worded example.
Just work on your game and get better and try and make as much money as possible without worrying about the future. It is important to note that internet poker playing making sacks full of cash without much skill (there are some cringeworthy 100nl regs that I'm sure are winning) may not always be possible so we don't have much job security.
Cliff notes: stay in school.
|
3k post - Return of the blog!
|
|
cardsman1992
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Being enjoyed at Jack's Bar since 1397
Posts: 1,065
|
|
I am one of the cringworthy ones, I'm afraid 
The games were much softer pre-UIGEA, then got considerably more difficult for about a year or so. In the last 3-6 months I have noticed some re-softening.
Bottom line is, a competent player still has an edge, but it may not be the 6-8ptbb/100 edge that some of the middling players were claiming back pre-legislation. Some of the competition has left, some of the competition has simply gotten better due to more widespread strategy discussion.
|
|
Operation Grind For Education:
Current BR: $10080(04/06/2009) BR Goal: $15000--I LOVE RB!!!
End date: 31aug2009
Current stakes: $100/200NL FR
|
|
badgers
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
|
|
cman i dont mean you  His name begins with E and ends with toi that's who I was thinking of when I wrote that comment. The dude is taking shots at 200nl atm :S
|
3k post - Return of the blog!
|
|
Miffed22001
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
|
|
the average knowledge of any player is much improved than it was 2 years ago. It doesnt mean the fish arent there anymore, it just means they are different.
However, id argue the absolute numbers of complete donks isnt as big as it was, AIGEA has had that effect
|
|
|
|
wonderland
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 478
|
|
i'm from the UK so don't know much about the UIGEA thing. Just looked it up briefly.
So... i'm a little confused, it says something about not being able to transfer funds to online gambling sites? and also says it sets up the framework for taxing it!
How did it affect people? I must be missing something because it seems that all US citizens can't play online poker if that's the case.
I have a pretty good grasp on how government thinks in terms of finances and ANYONE earning a living without paying tax is fucking doomed. They will not take kindly to it.
|
|
|
|
Keilah
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
|
|
I think that's basicaly the idea, USAers aren't supposed t be playing... but he ones who really want to play find ways around it.
Dude they're so rich and stupid... we need the American public!
PS I effing WISH a guy could average 6-8ptbb/100. That's so much money =[
|
|
|
|
spoonitnow
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Keilah
I think that's basicaly the idea, USAers aren't supposed t be playing... but he ones who really want to play find ways around it.
Dude they're so rich and stupid... we need the American public!
PS I effing WISH a guy could average 6-8ptbb/100. That's so much money =[
|
The bold is what people are supposed to think but there's no federal law against it. It is illegal to gamble on poker in certain states, however.
The average NLHE player is better than they were a few years ago, but many people forget that NLHE is only one out of a few dozen poker games you can play online. Also, micro and low stakes players are still pretty bad so you shouldn't be discouraged from learning to play.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
|
|
|
badgers
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by wonderland
i'm from the UK
...
I have a pretty good grasp on how government thinks in terms of finances and ANYONE earning a living without paying tax is fucking doomed
|
have you looked into what the UK government does?
|
3k post - Return of the blog!
|
|
wonderland
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Nottingham, UK
Posts: 478
|
|
shit... nope... ??
this seems ok though:
http://www.out-law.com/page-4087
just says the obvious stuff like you need a license to provide etc. to protect under 18s and stuff. Unless you know something i don't?
edit: oops, that article is 2003
|
|
|
|
badgers
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
|
|
That's for businesses. Individuals do not have to pay tax as far as I am aware (and I have looked into it a lot, don't have any links to hand though.)
wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
|
3k post - Return of the blog!
|
|
cardsman1992
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Being enjoyed at Jack's Bar since 1397
Posts: 1,065
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Keilah
PS I effing WISH a guy could average 6-8ptbb/100. That's so much money =[
|
There's a reason I said "claim"
|
|
Operation Grind For Education:
Current BR: $10080(04/06/2009) BR Goal: $15000--I LOVE RB!!!
End date: 31aug2009
Current stakes: $100/200NL FR
|
|
BankItDrew
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
|
|
Internet poker will be available for many many years to come... just not in every country. So, what I may have to do (if Canada follows suit with the US is move my place of residents. Possibly Europe, which would be nice because I've never been.
Regarding the quality of players: It will continue to improve for every existing player that plays today, this week, or this month. In order for there to be a large gap in skill - requires a new pond to fish in ie. Asian market. This is a newly tapped area for the likes of Party and Stars. Take the APPT for example: This is a brand spanking new tournament that began this year in Asia and it was a big hit. I'm optimistic that online poker will survive because of Asia (specifically China).
If you want online poker to survive and continue to keep the fish coming in then we need to collectively promote the game as much as possible.
|
Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
|
|
wufwugy
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
|
|
i believe that a decade or so from now it is likely that online poker wont really even exist. this will be due to AI and computer advancements.
the games are 100% solvable, yet they're not solved now because of the colossal amount of effort it would take, but as computer power increases exponentially and very dramatically, what it takes to solve the games will become rather easy. an example of this is (i dont know the exact dates and im not gonna look it up, but im close) the human genome project of sequencing one human genome took like a decade in the 90s, but now scientists are embarking on a cancer/genetic project which is equivalent to approximately 14k human genome projects, and they estimate that could be achieved in five years. this is solely due to the exponential and rapid growth of computer power.
even if the game doesnt become solved within a few decades, a different thing that will likely happen is that the gap between the top and bottom end of players will increase almost exponentially due to 'intelligence' chips. probably a decade from now brain chips that improve just memory will be underground. thirty years from now brain chips in intellectual arenas will have more of an effect than steroids do in high impact sports.
you can be damn sure that if AI doesnt take over before the end of the century then humans will become biotech machines.
also, it's likely some of us will live to see a handful of centuries due to what are now becoming exponential advances in medicine due to human genome sequencing and computers' role in biology, but thats a different topic.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
