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Fruck you t\/\/0 pair, critique want3d

  
 
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lolzzz_321
Old 04-10-2005, 09:54 AM     Post subject: Fruck you t\/\/0 pair, critique want3d #1 (permalink)  
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***** Hand History for Game 1869908970 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Saturday, April 09, 15:57:01 EDT 2005
Table Table 37265 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: CargoCultist ( $24.75 )
Seat 3: Triptan3s ( $36 )
Seat 4: Dutsdrac ( $21.1 )
Seat 5: gforce17 ( $16.9 )
Seat 6: headninja111 ( $16.8 )
Seat 7: AthensSot ( $9.5 )
Seat 8: armie88 ( $20.8 )
Seat 2: COBRA326 ( $9.3 )
Seat 9: dgdave ( $34.2 )
dgdave posts small blind [$0.1].
CargoCultist posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Triptan3s [ Qh Th ]
COBRA326 folds.
Triptan3s calls [$0.25].
Dutsdrac folds.
gforce17 folds.
headninja111 calls [$0.25].
AthensSot calls [$0.25].
armie88 calls [$0.25].
dgdave calls [$0.15].
CargoCultist checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Qd, Td ]
dgdave checks.
CargoCultist bets [$1].
Triptan3s calls [$1].
headninja111 folds.
AthensSot folds.
armie88 folds.
dgdave folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8c ]
CargoCultist checks.
Triptan3s bets [$3].
CargoCultist raises [$6].
gr8_set has joined the table.
Triptan3s calls [$3].
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
>You have options at Table 37639 Table!.
CargoCultist bets [$5].
Triptan3s folds.
CargoCultist does not show cards.
CargoCultist wins $19.75

Check on the turn?
Confizzled on what this guy had... Flush, flopped straight?
T|-|a|\|k$
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Cocco_Bill
Old 04-10-2005, 11:13 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Glaring mistake here is that you didn't make a big raise on the flop! Don't slow play 2 pair on a dangerous board like this!
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-10-2005, 03:42 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Agreed. Find out where you're at on the flop and either let it go or take it down. I'm guessing he had Jx and the 8 completed his straight.
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allLiving
Old 04-10-2005, 03:48 PM #4 (permalink)  
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You let him take control of the hand by not shoving a huge re-raise into his face on the flop... Don't be so passive.

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ensign_lee
Old 04-10-2005, 05:21 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Other than what's already said, I think you have to fold to his raise on the turn. Exactly what do you have him on that doesn't own you?

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lolzzz_321
Old 04-10-2005, 08:51 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Other than what's already said, I think you have to fold to his raise on the turn. Exactly what do you have him on that doesn't own you?
Wanted to fill up on the river
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-10-2005, 09:23 PM #7 (permalink)  
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You have 4 outs (two Ts and two Qs), giving you a 9% chance to fill up. That's no where near the odds you need to call this bet. It's only barely a close decision if you can count on him calling a push for implied odds (and even then my math says no).
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Cocco_Bill
Old 04-10-2005, 09:31 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
You have 4 outs (two Ts and two Qs), giving you a 9% chance to fill up. That's no where near the odds you need to call this bet. It's only barely a close decision if you can count on him calling a push for implied odds (and even then my math says no).
Actually its really close. He needs to call 3$ on the turn for what would need to become a pot of 33$ to have odds to call. Had he called the 5$ river bet the pot would be 25$, instead he would have raised him at least 5$ and probably got called which would have become a pot of more than 35$.
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-10-2005, 09:39 PM #9 (permalink)  
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The only problem I see with those figures are that you're including the bets that he hasn't yet made in the size of the pot he's potentially winning with this bet. That's a mistake, I believe.
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-10-2005, 09:47 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Ex. This plays out 100 times:

9 times he wins it, profitting by $12.50 each time (excluding river bets).

The 91 times he doesn't win it, he's losing $3 each time.

I'll assume that the opponent will make the same $5 bet each time and that he'll call the raise. That brings his winnings up to $22.50 ($10 more of his opponent's money) for the times he wins it.

In total then:
9 * 22.50 = $202.50 profit
91 * 3 = $273 loss

Net: loss of $70.50
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Cocco_Bill
Old 04-10-2005, 09:59 PM #11 (permalink)  
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You are right!

I still think that you were wrong in saying that he had no where near odds to call. Its not unlikely that his opponent would call a push on the river. Most people don't like folding straights even if the board does pair!
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-10-2005, 10:10 PM #12 (permalink)  
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It was closer than I thought. Even if the opp calls every time he pushes, it's at best marginally profitable, given their stack sizes...if my quick in-my-head addition is correct, opp had $7.50 more he could have called on the river, meaning it'd be $30 in winnings the 9 times that happens...still a net of -$3.

All of this would have been a moot point if the flop reraise had occurred. We'd know if he was way behind and the odds would either be clearly in favor (with a large pot) or behind (due to a large bet).
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lolzzz_321
Old 04-10-2005, 11:29 PM #13 (permalink)  
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THanks for your input!
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a500lbgorilla
Old 04-10-2005, 11:30 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Check on the turn?
Why check?

Why bet?

-'rilla

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You mean the revolver, sir?
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lolzzz_321
Old 04-11-2005, 04:35 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Check behind, avoid check raise.
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