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Flush and straight draw on the Flop

  
 
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Kalhaldren
Old 08-20-2007, 04:42 PM     Post subject: Flush and straight draw on the Flop #1 (permalink)  

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Kalhaldren
I've been lurking here for a while, gleening what I could from everyone's posts, poker books, etc. I consider myself a fair player, but would like to get some feedback on a recent hand from a full ring $1/2 NLHE game.

The table was a mix of players from loose to tight, no one showing any overly agressive tendencies, with one execption who played a tight, agressive game (I'll call him "TAG").

I was in the BB and seven players, including TAG and the SB limped in. I had 5c 3c, so I check. ($14 in the pot after drop and rake)

Stacks (after the flop) of the 8 players who limped were approximately:
SB $80
BB (Hero) $88
UTG $60
EP1 (Villan) $150
TAG (who was in MP) $150
MP2 $100
LP $50
CO $75

Flop came in Ac 10c 4d

SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Villan bets $20, TAG calls, MP2 calls, LP calls, CO folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

All the players still in the pot have been playing fairly tight, but none are a rock by any means.

Pot ($110)

Turn comes in 10h

Hero checks, Villan bets $50, everyone else folds back to me. I put Villan on trip 10s, as I believe he would have raised PF with A 10 (or better) and I don't think he would have limped in with 10 4. He might have limped in with Ax, so two pair is possible, but I don't think he would have bet the flop as strongly as he did with A x in his hand.

If I bet the turn, I'm pushing, as a call leaves me with $18. I figure I have 12 outs to make the flush or straight (discounting the 10c) on the river.

Comments on play up to this point, and do you push or fold here?
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Khabbi
Old 08-20-2007, 07:43 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Pot odds are $68/$178 = 38%
Odds of making your hand 12/47 = 25%
You have basically no fold equity and you can't beat even a total bluff here.

This is a pretty clear fold on the turn.

You could have pushed the flop, since you would have had fold equity as well as the proper pot odds even if he did call.
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martindcx1e
Old 08-20-2007, 07:45 PM #3 (permalink)  
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get out fast on the turn
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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Kalhaldren
Old 08-20-2007, 08:13 PM #4 (permalink)  

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Kalhaldren
Khabbi, help me out on the pot odds calculation.

As I understand it, to get pot odds, I compare the current pot and the amount to call the bet. In this case it would be 178:68 or approximately 2.67:1. To convert that into percentages, I'd take (2.67+1) and divide by the call (or 1). Using this formula, I get approximately 27%, not 38%.

Is this incorrect?
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Khabbi
Old 08-20-2007, 09:31 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalhaldren
Khabbi, help me out on the pot odds calculation.

As I understand it, to get pot odds, I compare the current pot and the amount to call the bet. In this case it would be 178:68 or approximately 2.67:1. To convert that into percentages, I'd take (2.67+1) and divide by the call (or 1). Using this formula, I get approximately 27%, not 38%.

Is this incorrect?
No... help ME out on the pot odds calculation. Yours is right, mine is wrong.

The odds are closer than I thought, but not in your favor. It's a fold because you have no fold equity.
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spoonitnow
Old 08-20-2007, 09:36 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Immediate pot odds are 110:50 or like 2.2:1 while you have 12 outs making you around 3:1 to hit your draw. Not only this, but sometimes your opponent will improve to a boat on the river and you'll lose anyway (or your read could be wrong and you're drawing dead), so you're pretty screwed on a call here.
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Kalhaldren
Old 08-20-2007, 09:44 PM #7 (permalink)  

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Kalhaldren
Spoonitnow -

Actually, I believe the immediate pot odds were 160:50 or 3.2:1 as the pot was at $110 before Villan bet his $50. Regardless, at the time I didn't consider the boat possibility ... and should have.

As you may have guessed, I went all in for the additional $18 in my stack and hit a 6c on the river making my flush. I'm not so much interested in the results (though I'm definately not complaining!) as I am in whether the play was the right one.
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spoonitnow
Old 08-20-2007, 10:03 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalhaldren
Spoonitnow -

Actually, I believe the immediate pot odds were 160:50 or 3.2:1 as the pot was at $110 before Villan bet his $50. Regardless, at the time I didn't consider the boat possibility ... and should have.

As you may have guessed, I went all in for the additional $18 in my stack and hit a 6c on the river making my flush. I'm not so much interested in the results (though I'm definately not complaining!) as I am in whether the play was the right one.
Durr, *beats chest like a retard*. That's what I get for posting while 12-tabling.

So your pot odds are about even but you have to consider the boat, it messes your odds up considerably

Edit: Also I think call > push (fold still being best play) because a push has no point here since you're behind and don't have fold equity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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