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flopped 3rd best flush 50NL

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Da GOAT

03-05-2007, 05:25 PM Post subject: flopped 3rd best flush 50NL

#1 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Feb 2006

Location: Dublin

Posts: 4,308

very first hand. no reads or converter with everest

EverestPoker Game #1201651162: Table Berlin-8 - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:08:50 - 2007/03/04
Seat 1: DaGOAT ($50.00)

Seat 10: guappo ($68.86)

Peter512 posts the small blind of $0.25
nestee posts the big blind of $0.50
DaGOAT posts $0.50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DaGOAT[Ts 7s]
AntoneH folds
Dotterbart folds
quintepro calls $0.50
cristo71 calls $0.50
good_fish calls $0.50
guappo calls $0.50
DaGOAT checks
iblufyoufold calls $0.50
Peter512 calls $0.25
nestee checks
*** FLOP *** [4s Qs Js]
Peter512 checks
nestee checks
quintepro checks
cristo71 checks
good_fish checks
guappo bets $1.00
DaGOAT raises to $4.25
iblufyoufold folds
Peter512 folds
nestee folds
quintepro folds
cristo71 folds
good_fish folds
guappo raises to $9.50
DaGOAT ??????????????????????

Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.

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jyms

03-05-2007, 05:33 PM

#2 (permalink)

Tilting Mod

Join Date: Feb 2006

Posts: 4,837

He could have the As, KTo or QJo, so he thinks your bluff repping the flush and he has a shot at the nuts. Odds of the higher flush are slim. What were you hoping to accomplish by raising his bet?? You got it, now what. I push or fold, depending on Villian. Without reads, I push.

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swiggidy

03-05-2007, 06:08 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Waiting in the shadows ...

Posts: 3,777

There is $40 behind and a $20 pot. Pushing seems extreme, maybe there aren't enough donks in my games. I call flop and push over his turn bet, or bet $15 if he checks. If a spade comes c or f.

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Erudito

03-05-2007, 10:11 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2006

Posts: 150

Why did you raise on the flop?
Unless you raised to find out if your Villain has a higher flush than you.
If this was your intention, then fold when re-raised. You got the information you wanted.
Oh wait, maybe, Villain is bluffing?
Nay! I doubt many players would reraise without having at least an Ace high flush. He is probably protecting his hand against a straight flush draw. Therefore, his reraise is correct. If you have a straight flush draw, would you lay down your hand?

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-05-2007, 10:29 PM

#5 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

The first thing that would've come to my mind was how are you going to play the turn and river if we decide to just call.

There are as a lot of "scare" cards that can come on the turn. (any Q, J, 4, or spade) That is a lot of cards - potentially 15 (assuming villain is holding 2 of the actual 17 cards villain could be holding (2 higher spades, two pair/ set combinations). We want villain to go away now, since our hand is potentially vulnerable.

Still, if we cold call this bet villain may think we have a hand weaker than a flush and come swinging on the turn with a hand weaker than yours, most likely a set type hand. Basically cold calling the flop won't tell us whether we are beat or not and we need to know because there are two more streets to come and villain could easily bet on both of them with a weaker hand than ours.

A raise is best because while villain will usually fold hands weaker than ours, we will find out if he has higher flush if he decides to call/ raise over our raise. There aren't a lot of players who won't lay down 2 pair or a set if you stick in another raise, and i am going to assume that all players would lay those hands down for my equity calculation.

So, Equity wise... (There is $13.50 in the Pot)

If you raise to $15 and villain folds... Probability: 66%
($13.50 x .66) = $8.91

If you raise to $15 and villain calls/ raises... Probability: 33%
(-$6.50 x .33) = -$2.45

Total Equity: $6.46

If you were instead to call villain down to the river, he would show you a higher flush 33% of the time and a full house probably ~11% (since he had 2 streets to potentially pick up one of his 4-6 real outs). We are assuming villain did not have a hand that was still drawing to a higher flush for this calculation.

You call two streets worth of bets (1/2 ($11) and 1/3 pot ($15). We can ignore the flop raise because you would've called it anyways if you were going to raise him there and i eliminated that variable from both equations.

If villain has a higher flush... Probability: 33%
($26 x .33) = -$8.58

If villain has a full house... Probability: 11%
($26 x. 11) = -$2.86

If villain has only a set by the river, he will bet both streets (in this example, but you may be able to get more out of him if he checked and you made a slightly larger value bet). Probability: 55%

($26 x .55) = $14.3

Total Equity: $2.86

Raising on the flop saves you from calling down 2 streets with a worse hand, and you don't compensate enough from weaker hands that go to showdown with you.

Erudito

03-05-2007, 10:50 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2006

Posts: 150

Vi-Zer0Skill wrote:

Quote:

Raising on the flop saves you from calling down 2 streets with a worse hand, and you don't compensate enough from weaker hands that go to showdown with you.

Hero did raise on the flop, Villain re-raised. How can this be a positive EV? Are you saying that Hero should re-raise Villain?

zook

03-05-2007, 11:22 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 3,676

I push. There are a lot of weaker hands that call (44/QJ/any flush/Asx), esp since it's your first hand at the table.

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-06-2007, 04:43 AM

#8 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

I was aware that Hero would be sticking in the 4th raise on the flop.

Da GOAT

03-06-2007, 09:24 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Feb 2006

Location: Dublin

Posts: 4,308

just to finish here, looking now i think my raise is horrible at $34. dont know WTF i was thinking

*** FLOP *** [4s Qs Js]
Peter512 checks
nestee checks
quintepro checks
cristo71 checks
good_fish checks
guappo bets $1.00
DaGOAT raises to $4.25
iblufyoufold folds
Peter512 folds
nestee folds
quintepro folds
cristo71 folds
good_fish folds
guappo raises to $9.50
DaGOAT raises to $34.25
guappo raises to $68.36 and is all-in
DaGOAT calls $15.25 and is all-in

Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-07-2007, 04:42 AM

#10 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

Erudito: "I doubt many players would reraise without having at least an Ace high flush. He is probably protecting his hand against a straight flush draw"

This is an overly conservative approach to this hand.

Da GOAT

03-07-2007, 07:47 AM

#11 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Feb 2006

Location: Dublin

Posts: 4,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

precisely the dileema Vi-zeroskill. 2 pair and sets will play the same way

Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.

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