|
daven
|
01-14-2008, 07:16 AM
Post subject: flop bottom pair and nut flush - push the re-raise?
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,814
|
|
Villain is like 30-12 and I think range is broadway, pairs 88+, most aces.
I think villain could be re-raising with loads of hands, but is folding anything but a set if I push. So what is the best play? min 3-bet? bet pot? call? I can't fold.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($9.75)
MP3 ($24.80)
CO ($67.25)
Button ($42.30)
SB ($19.55)
Hero ($51.05)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($56)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , 3. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP3 raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold.
Flop: ($2.50) K, 7, 3 (4 players)
Hero bets $2.5, MP3 raises to $5, what are your thoughts?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
|
|
Call because this guy sucks at bet sizing and will likely make a mistake on the turn. I think your mistake equity here is greater than your fold equity.
|
|
|
|
wufwugy
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
|
|
Fnord put it perfectly.
|
|
|
|
d0zer
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,527
|
|
"Mistake Equity"
I like that 
|
|
|
|
daven
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,814
|
|
ok, now what. Folding is tempting, pushing is perhaps silly - but also tempting - but villain is probably calling. Note stack sizes.
Flop: ($2.50) K, 7, 3 (4 players)
Hero bets $2.5, MP3 raises to $5, Hero calls $2.50.
Turn: ($12.50) 5 (4 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $7.5, now what?
|
|
|
|
yuenjai
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 43
|
|
ur hand lost most of its value on the turn. i like a flop push instead. as played i fold the turn. or maybe u could rep 64h 
|
|
|
|
pokerfan
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
|
|
i might call on the turn given that we had like 10-14 outs and he seemed to give us good calling odds. The problem is we don't really have good implied odds considering that his stacks is not that deep.
|
|
|
|
freechus9
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: IN UR BOX HAXXING UR FILEZ
Posts: 1,000
|
|
I like to push the shorty. You have about 12ish outs to a winning hand if sometimes he has a set and sometimes not. Need about 3 to 1 odds to call. You're getting that now, but push and maximize your EV here, not to mention some FE (not much at all).
|
|
My sig is too much for you to handle.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
|
|
Call the turn too
|
|
|
|
Pelion
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
|
|
pushing the turn seems silly. We know we are behind. We know he will call. We are pretty sure hes going to call any river with so little left in his stack, so we can call turn and then shove when we hit/ fold when we miss. We win the same when we hit and lose less when we miss.
|
|
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
|
|
daven
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,814
|
|
looking at the hand again I think the best play might have been to bet $3, villain seems the type to just press the raise button ($3 more) with no thought of bet-sizing and then it's an easy call to see the river.
Pelion, your comment makes complete sense - now that you pointed it out it seems obvious that I had zero fold equity so nothing to gain by pushing. I somehow hadn't realised that!
|
|
|
|
d0zer
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,527
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by daven
Pelion, your comment makes complete sense - now that you pointed it out it seems obvious that I had zero fold equity so nothing to gain by pushing. I somehow hadn't realised that!
|
I've been slowly learning this lesson the hard way at 25NL. When the pots start building vs all but the tightest of players, your FE has been reduced to nil, and even vs tight players you've hardly got any because they generally won't let a pot build with a marginal hand that they'll fold on later streets.
I've been burned pushing draws on the turn vs 35/5 types so much that I'm convinced the play is -EV -- only worth the draw, which misses most of the time 
It's easy to get that blinder-vision "yay semi-bluff" kinda thinking, which ignores the dynamic aspects of this game...
|
|
|
|
wylted
|
|
|
|
i find that when people do those type of raises its ussually a bluff because they are abot to tilt you have outs to the nuts and probably the lead right now i say push all in and when he folds show your cards so if he does have something like a small pair he starts to fume
|
|
|
|
nutsinho
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
|
|
"I think villain could be re-raising with loads of hands, but is folding anything but a set if I push"
I dont really agree with this but if this is anywhere near true its a trivial 3-bet/call on flop.
Also, I disagree with Fnord. Since we are out of position, we have poor implied odds on hitting a heart or an ace, and no fold equity if villain makes a decent bet on turn.
|
|
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
|
|
Our opponent sucks and will often make very loose calls for the rest of the money on the river. It's it's a bad turn call, then not by much. Also we probably have 1-2 extra outs for when it goes check/check and we're good on the river.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
06-01-2012, 11:03 AM White House Responds to Poker Players Alliance's Petition
Linear Mode
