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Fishy or pot odds?

  
 
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r8ed
Old 10-06-2005, 02:16 PM     Post subject: Fishy or pot odds? #1 (permalink)  
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r8ed
I think this is a suckout on my part. Since he only had $12, I didn't mind taking the hit if I missed.

***** Hand History for Game 2833210978 *****
0/0 Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) - Thu Oct 06 00:25:48 EDT 2005
Table Table 37574 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: pineconeking ( $33.15)
Seat 2: klout ( $17.85)
Seat 3: WHOWHODAT ( $26.25)
Seat 4: PIPOGESTITOS ( $7.40)
Seat 5: BenjiBlue ( $23.30)
Seat 6: Antilect ( $29.65)
Seat 7: InvAsian316 ( $33.25)
Seat 8: jandje ( $25.90)
Seat 9: tastyfish ( $25.48)
Seat 10: blue4u ( $12.97)
InvAsian316 posts small blind (0.10)
jandje posts big blind (0.25)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jandje [ Ah, Kc ]
tastyfish calls (0.25)
blue4u raises (2) to 2
pineconeking folds.
klout folds.
WHOWHODAT folds.
PIPOGESTITOS folds.
BenjiBlue folds.
Antilect folds.
InvAsian316 folds.
jandje calls (1.75)
tastyfish folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3h, 4h, 8h ]
jandje checks.
blue4u bets (10.97)
blue4u is all-In.
jandje calls (10.97)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 6c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Ac ]
Creating Main Pot with $24.99 with blue4u
** Summary **
Main Pot: $24.99 | | Rake: $1.30
Board: [ 3h 4h 8h 6c Ac ]
pineconeking balance $33.15, didn't bet (folded)
klout balance $17.85, didn't bet (folded)
WHOWHODAT balance $26.25, didn't bet (folded)
PIPOGESTITOS balance $7.40, didn't bet (folded)
BenjiBlue balance $23.30, didn't bet (folded)
Antilect balance $29.65, didn't bet (folded)
InvAsian316 balance $33.15, lost $0.10 (folded)
jandje balance $37.92, bet $12.97, collected $24.99, net +$12.02 [ Ah Kc ] [ a pair of aces -- Ah,Ac,Kc,8h,6c ]
tastyfish balance $25.23, lost $0.25 (folded)
blue4u balance $0, lost $12.97 [ Jc Jd ] [ a pair of jacks -- Ac,Jc,Jd,8h,6c ]
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PokerPatNEU
Old 10-06-2005, 02:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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His PFR + Obvious protection bet on a 3 suited board = over pair. Soon as i saw his all in i thought 99-QQ. That gives you 14 clean outs (9 hearts, 3 A's, 2 K's that are not hearts) to make a 10$ call into a 14$ pot. Pot odds = Win..As long as he's not holding KK/AA. But its just barely.
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 10-06-2005, 03:08 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
That gives you 14 clean outs (9 hearts, 3 A's, 2 K's that are not hearts) to make a 10$ call into a 14$ pot. Pot odds = Win..As long as he's not holding KK/AA. But its just barely.
No... it's not. Even assuming he doesn't have AA or KK you're calling ~$11 into a $15 pot. You were a 52.4 % favorite and were only getting 1.36:1 on your money. That's a losing play.
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PokerPatNEU
Old 10-06-2005, 03:26 PM #4 (permalink)  
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How is getting 1.36:1 with 14 clean outs a losing play?
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edudlive
Old 10-06-2005, 04:48 PM #5 (permalink)  
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14 clean outs = 56% chance of hitting

1.387 to 1 odds on the flop

for everyone 100 times this happens, you're going to lose 44% of the time

44 x 10.97 = $482.68
56 x 10.97 = $614.32

614.32 - 482.68 = +131.64

131.64/100 hands = +1.3164

So everytime you do this, you're winning 1.32 big bets

or using % to win on the flop (not sure which of these ways of doing this is correct)

according to card player's calculator you were a 52.4% to 47.6% favorite on the flop

52.4 x 10.97 = $574.83
47.6 x 10.97 = $522.17

574.83 - 522.17 = 52.66

So something like half a big bet in this situation...really not worth it

In either case, its only marginally +EV
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Rondavu
Old 10-06-2005, 05:40 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Don't you have to take into account that sometimes your opponent is on a stone cold bluff here from a desperate lowstack? How does that effect the theoretical odds? Sometimes you need no outs to win. In my mind that's the straw that breaks the camels back in terms of calling or not.
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Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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edudlive
Old 10-06-2005, 05:47 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Don't you have to take into account that sometimes your opponent is on a stone cold bluff here from a desperate lowstack? How does that effect the theoretical odds? Sometimes you need no outs to win. In my mind that's the straw that breaks the camels back in terms of calling or not.
This is what though, 25NL? while my odds are very good against XY random hand, I'm not sure I'd be willing to call off 1/3 of it and hoping to win with ace high, and you have no chance to push him out of his bluff
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PokerPatNEU
Old 10-06-2005, 05:59 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Don't you have to take into account that sometimes your opponent is on a stone cold bluff here from a desperate lowstack? How does that effect the theoretical odds? Sometimes you need no outs to win. In my mind that's the straw that breaks the camels back in terms of calling or not.
That's what i was going to say. Fishy villains at low limits will make this ridiculous push wtih AQ, KQ, AJ, etc etc that completely missed. If he actually was holding an over pair, why not value bet? The push looks suspicious as is.

You are a slight favorite against a pair 99-QQ
You are a huge favorite against a bluff (AQ, AJ, KQs, etc)
You are a slight dog against KK/AA but who would really play these hands that way?

Call every time.
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PokerPatNEU
Old 10-06-2005, 06:00 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edudlive
This is what though, 25NL? while my odds are very good against XY random hand, I'm not sure I'd be willing to call off 1/3 of it and hoping to win with ace high, and you have no chance to push him out of his bluff
You are arguing that a fold is appropriate because the play is only marginally +EV?
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edudlive
Old 10-06-2005, 06:03 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPatNEU
Quote:
Originally Posted by edudlive
This is what though, 25NL? while my odds are very good against XY random hand, I'm not sure I'd be willing to call off 1/3 of it and hoping to win with ace high, and you have no chance to push him out of his bluff
You are arguing that a fold is appropriate because the play is only marginally +EV?
What you quoted was just saying that you can't hardly ever say that your ace high is good in 25NL, especially PARTY 25NL...since they'll literally call yuo with anything at the micro level (meaning that your ace high is almost never good)

As for the marginally +EV, you're talking about barely any winnings (over time) for a lot of your stack, but it is +EV so its up to you
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Aces
Old 10-06-2005, 07:08 PM #11 (permalink)  
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First off, 14outs ~ 51% not 56%( the 4x is closer if you subtract one for each out over 8, which gets you to 50%. actual number is 51.2% if the FTR table is correct)

Second, I don't see how you could not call this unless you think there is a good chance he is trying to draw a call with AA/KK or possibly raised 8x UTG with 88. ( FWIW, I think some might make the same AI move with AA or KK with 3 hearts on the flop). As long as your getting even money or better it shoud be a call and you're getting 1.4 to 1.

Nuts, could you explain your reasoning maybe I'm missing something.
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