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Deanglow
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02-05-2008, 10:33 PM
Post subject: Even tougher NFD hand
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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No reads on villain, I'm TAG. I called pre because original raiser is a drooler/I have position. No reads on SB/Villain. Comments on all streets please.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
BB ($585.35)
UTG ($2301.65)
UTG+1 ($613.95)
MP1 ($558)
MP2 ($87)
MP3 ($606)
CO ($338.75)
Hero ($591)
SB ($557)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 4.
UTG raises to $12, 1 fold, MP1 calls $12, 3 folds, Hero calls $12, SB calls $9, BB calls $6.
Flop: ($60) 5, 7, A (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $42, SB raises to $125, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls $83.
Turn: ($310) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $270 and has $150 left
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Pythonic
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: In S-mart Swallowing Your Soul!
Posts: 586
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With two pair, NFD, and pot committed this is an instacall.
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Never bet on a white man in the heavyweight division!
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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shove
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pythonic
With two pair, NFD, and pot committed this is an instacall.
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We're not committed yet.
As played, the turn is pretty tough. I don't think a 600nl unknown will have less than a pair here, so that puts us at like 55, 77, maybe A5s/A7s, and the occasional 8c6c which owns us now that the 4 hit. We're like 25% or worse against all of these hands unless I suck at counting outs, so I guess it's a fold.
If we jump back to the flop, I think we're like 40% against most of that same range if I figure right, well maybe a little less so like 37-40%. I wonder if he can get away from A5s and/or A7s enough to make this a +EV push? There's three 55s, three 77s, one 86s, three A5s and three A7s, so that's almost half his range, but I don't know. He'd have to be folding like 20%-25% of the time or something to make this +EV, so maybe it's close to a push.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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I think there are a lot of outs that help us split here. Axs and gutshot flushdraws are also possible. I see his range including a few more hands, but yea, I think getting it in on the flop with what may be more equity than you have now might be a better play. I don't think we need to see a set everytime, and if we do, we have tons of outs still.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pythonic
With two pair, NFD, and pot committed this is an instacall.
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I have $137 invested and could put in $420 more. I'm not pot committed at all. I think the four only gives me two more outs against his range (two pair/set), changing very little.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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if i wanted to bet the flop in position id be betting like 25$. i think its a good spot to check.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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