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Is this -EV?

  
 
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bigred
Old 02-29-2008, 06:11 PM     Post subject: Is this -EV? #1 (permalink)  
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 No pokemon here...

Op is 31/12/.5

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($23.65)
UTG+1 ($39.10)
MP1 ($25.00)
MP2 ($30.20)
MP3 ($21.85)
CO ($13.70)
BTN ($23.50)
Hero ($27.50)
BB ($15.15)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is SB
4 folds, MP3 raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, MP3 calls $3

Flop: ($8.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, 1 fold

Final Pot: $8.25

Hero wins $13.85 ( won +$3.85 )
MP3 lost -$4.00

I don't think it's bad preflop, but what do we think of cont bet on flop? Op isn't very aggressive and will most likely call or fold. A call doesn't give me any info and I'm out of position. Thoughts on preflop/cont bet?
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pokerfan
Old 02-29-2008, 06:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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his stat sounds to me like a loose fish. So i wouldnt 3 bet him oop with JTs knowing that my hand is probably not ahead of his raising range and that he 's more than likely a station. As played, i definitely c/f on this monotone flop. Keep it in mind that playing marginal hand oop is not so profitable as you think it is even though you are against a loose guy.. fold preflop and look for another spot.
side note: this move is making much sense against a tight guy who has wide preflop raising range lp. In this case, i might 3 bet from blinds or call with the intention of C/R any good flop when he cb.
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Fnord
Old 02-29-2008, 06:27 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Standard.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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bigred
Old 02-29-2008, 06:30 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Standard.
You honestly think villain folds a monotone board enough on flop to make this cbet profitable? I'm not so sure.
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pankfish
Old 02-29-2008, 06:42 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I think 3 betting JT is horrible if you aren't going to fire at any river. You are obviously representing a much stronger hand and a much stronger hand isn't checking that flop.
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bigred
Old 02-29-2008, 06:48 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pankfish
I think 3 betting JT is horrible if you aren't going to fire at any river. You are obviously representing a much stronger hand and a much stronger hand isn't checking that flop.
I don't agree with this at all. I don't think the sole purpose of three betting TJs (or any hand) is to auto fire at any flop OOP. I think there's a range of flops that are extremely +EV to fire at but there are also dangerous ones that I think are losing cbet flops in the long run. I'm thinking this may be one of them.

I'm not sure for a few reasons. One, he's probably more scared of that flop than I am. Two, his odds of holding a high heart (J-A) is relatively low.

Kind of split on which way to go.
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swiggidy
Old 02-29-2008, 07:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Mathematically his misses that flop a ton, he's passive so he's not going to raise an obvious cbet. I think betting here is mandatory
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Warpe
Old 02-29-2008, 07:07 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I like it if he knows how to fold postflop. That flop is perfect for firing at.



 
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Fnord
Old 02-29-2008, 07:10 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
You honestly think villain folds a monotone board enough on flop to make this cbet profitable?
Yes, even if he calls with any Heart or Queen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Vrax
Old 03-01-2008, 02:04 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Standard.
Standard?

Maybe im too much of preflop nit but I don't think that building pot OOP with drawing hand is standard. I do it sometimes to mix up with usual {KK+, AK} but it's definitely not "OMG JTs in blinds, gotta 3bet everytime". Position would help with that light 3-bet.

Even when the guy is frequent pf raiser, then it's good to know his folding tendencies to 3bets and general postflop play before making that re-raise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
You honestly think villain folds a monotone board enough on flop to make this cbet profitable?
Yes, even if he calls with any Heart or Queen.
Yeah, a bunch of better hands that also missed that board will fold, like non heart AK, AJ, and all missed non heart king high and queen high broadways. Not that KJish offsuit is worth calling vs obvious big pair representation, but lots of players on make calls in such spots with such hands.
"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy
 
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pokerfan
Old 03-01-2008, 03:32 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Do you plan to double barrel on any non-heart turn? i still think its -EV playing JTs in 3 bet pot out of position against such a villain given his loose passive stats.
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Cocco_Bill
Old 03-01-2008, 03:42 PM #12 (permalink)  
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not standard preflop, standard to bet the flop.
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Fnord
Old 03-01-2008, 10:48 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
not standard preflop, standard to bet the flop.
/agree

pre-flop I would usually just fold here. I think an occasional 3-bet in this spot is just fine. Really depends on how things are flowing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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