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Easy fold here I blew, am I right?

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joshuadzl

12-29-2005, 08:52 AM Post subject: Easy fold here I blew, am I right?

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2005

Location: Seattle, Wa

Posts: 287

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+2 ($20.45)
MP1 ($28.10)
MP2 ($25.25)
MP3 ($28.10)
joshua dzl ($24.75)
Button ($15.90)
SB ($76.90)
BB ($29.60)
UTG ($22.80)
UTG+1 ($17)

Preflop: joshua dzl is CO with K

, K

. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 3 folds, joshua dzl raises to $1.25, 3 folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $1.

Flop: ($3.10) 9

, 4

, 6

(2 players)
UTG+2 checks, joshua dzl bets $2, UTG+2 calls $2.

Turn: ($7.10) J

(2 players)
UTG+2 checks, joshua dzl bets $6.75, UTG+2 calls $6.75.

River: ($20.60) J

(2 players)
UTG+2 calls $10.45 (All-In), joshua dzl calls $10.45.

Final Pot: $41.50

Results in white below:
UTG+2 has Js Td (three of a kind, jacks).
joshua dzl has Kd Ks (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins $41.50.

I got stupid, I know, just couldn't beleive he acctually was calling those bets down - though I do want that.

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TripsChaos

12-29-2005, 08:57 AM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2005

Posts: 86

Well, the fact that he is a total donk is irrelevant, but you should have laid it down to the possibility of him catching the flush he seemed to be chasing. He semi-disguised his hand on the river by simply going all-in, but the same move could have been done if he had say a 910, 1010, or even qq, but it is more likely that he would have reraised you on the flop or even pushed all in. The fact that the board paired Js would make me lower the possiblity that he caught runner runner. At first glance, its a laydown to a fish who doesn't know his pot odds, but its a very understandable call. I probably would have called too, considering his all in push on the river, which looks like a steal attempt.

just bad luck

dan

12-29-2005, 09:02 AM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Posts: 288

pfr is good, i wouldve bet pot on the flop, turn was fine imo, river - well....kings would be hard to lay down.

http://www.takinstax.blogspot.com

dalecooper

12-29-2005, 01:10 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2004

Posts: 3,107

Rough hand. You are getting about 2:1 to call that push, which seems reasonable if you have seen him bluff at all previously. But if he's a standard donkfish, that bet on the river is often a very bad sign. They only do that when they hit whatever improbable piece of crap they've been chasing. That was a terrible card - paired the board and completed the flush draw. I'd be tempted to give him credit for the flush and fold it.

EricE

12-29-2005, 04:25 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 894

How can you not fold the river? He is calling large bets and you hold - a pair. When he goes AI on the river you HAVE to figure you are beat. 94, 96, Jx, or flush all beat you. I don’t see him calling any bet but the flop with only a pair of 9s.

I probably bet the flop and the turn the same.

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

dalecooper

12-29-2005, 05:05 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2004

Posts: 3,107

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricE

How can you not fold the river? He is calling large bets and you hold - a pair. When he goes AI on the river you HAVE to figure you are beat.

Much depends on reads. The river card is an obvious scare card and there are various reasons he would push:

1. He's a bad player, sees a made hand (trips or FH or flush) and wants to get paaaaaaiiiiiid
2. He's a decent player, sees a scare card, and thinks he can get you to fold
3. He's a good and tricky player, sees a scare card that happens to make his hand, and thinks if he does the most obvious thing (push) it will cause you to think that #2 is the case - when it's really hidden option #3: pay me off

So out of these types of players, what fits with his line of action? This is where the read becomes all important. The likelihood of that being a bluff varies wildly between player types. Against bad players and really good, devious players this is not a good call. Against a decent but not great player (the type who slowplays every set and religiously check-raises when he flops two pair or draws a flush on the turn) this is probably a profitable call, even though sometimes they will have what they're repping. On this board he could easily be calling down with any two overs, 78, 57, TT, 88, 77, or a flush draw, depending what type of player he is. Some of those hands have turned into something by the river, and some haven't. It's far from impossible that he's full of crap with that bet. But with this particular guy, I'd make a note: big river bet probably means big holdings. He looks like a standard fish: call call call, then bet huge when you make a hand.

Lukie

12-29-2005, 05:53 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: back with a vengeance

Posts: 3,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricE

I'm not too worried about 94 or 96 due to raising to 5x preflop. If that's what they have, so be it. Oh yeah, and due to the rivered jack, hero is now crushing these hands.

This is such a fishy hand on so many different levels. Against some opponents I call here, against some I fold. My first impression was to fold, but getting 2:1 here isn't reasonably bad if there is some chance villain is full of shit.

EricE

12-29-2005, 06:13 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 894

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

Oh yeah, and due to the rivered jack, hero is now crushing these hands.

hehe. True, I didn't look close enough. Oh well, I am weak which is why I don't call big river bets. I loose some value by not knowing which to call and which to fold but I save big time over calling all of them.

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

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