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Ducks vs. decent tag OOP

  
 
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badgers
Old 04-01-2008, 01:54 PM     Post subject: Ducks vs. decent tag OOP #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 11/9/3 over 300 hands with 30% attempt to steal and 35% w$wsf. He's repping 55/77 (i don't think he shows up very often with 87 or 67) but I think he's FOS a lot so I call with the intention of c/rai on the turn as I would with my monsters here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($17.50)
BB ($27.80)
UTG ($96.75)
UTG+1 ($8.50)
MP1 ($48.75)
MP2 ($65.20)
MP3 ($11.90)
Hero ($52.45)
Button ($60.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with , .
5 folds, Hero raises to $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, Button raises to $9, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($22.75) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7, Hero raises to $41.45.....
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badgers
Old 04-01-2008, 02:15 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I mean... I think his range is 22-TT here and maybe AQ/KQ (KJ/AJ/AK) with a bit of random crap thrown in. I think he plays almost all his pocket pairs this way and folds them to this shove.
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AHiltz
Old 04-01-2008, 02:22 PM #3 (permalink)  
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How does he view you? I think that plays into this analysis a lot.
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badgers
Old 04-01-2008, 02:30 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I would think he thinks I'm a mediocre tag who is aggressive in position and will cbet this flop with nearly 100% of my fairly wide opening range. FWIW he doesn't play many tables so he will have time to think about it (and he did)
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Miffed22001
Old 04-01-2008, 05:18 PM #5 (permalink)  
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id c/r the flop then the hand is over if it goes to a turn
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aka_red
Old 04-01-2008, 08:32 PM #6 (permalink)  
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he just flatted preflop so maybe hes is being creative with sc in lp and maybe he has that 7 and you are drawing to 2 oots? thats exactly how i would have played if i had a 7. but fwiw i dont think his range is going to help him find a fold and you get called.
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Fnord
Old 04-01-2008, 08:46 PM #7 (permalink)  
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If he's bluffing, then WTF is up with his turn bet size?
 
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badgers
Old 04-01-2008, 08:53 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
If he's bluffing, then WTF is up with his turn bet size?
Zing very good. Opp had JJ (which I really did not put in his range at all, note taken) good game me.

I think my plan on the flop was OK but once he bet so small on the turn I should have realised the game was up, changed my plan and folded.
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Fnord
Old 04-01-2008, 09:32 PM #9 (permalink)  
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PLAYER NOTE!
 
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sweetlemon69
Old 04-01-2008, 09:49 PM #10 (permalink)  
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How come you don't put JJ in his range here? Just curious.
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badgers
Old 04-01-2008, 10:12 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetlemon69
How come you don't put JJ in his range here? Just curious.
I thought he'd know he was far enough of my range to 3 bet very profitably here. I also thought he wouldn't want to get involved in a 3/4-way pot with jacks and by calling he's giving the blinds good odds to get in on the action. Perhaps I should have considered it more though, the average 50NL reg doesn't 3-bet nearly enough and admitedly I hadn't seen this opp showdown less than QQ after 3betting.

Actually the more I look at this hand the more I dislike my play because my reads aren't strong enough and I the stacks aren't quite deep enough for a meaningful shove. Also I don't think he will bet enough of his range on the turn for this to be good.
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HybridTt
Old 04-02-2008, 03:06 PM #12 (permalink)  

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martindcx1e
Old 04-02-2008, 03:19 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HybridTt
4. its a dry board he can put you on a bluff easily...
don't drawy boards make it look bluffier?

also, b/f the flop. he isn't drawing, and you shouldn't want to play a big pot here.
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HybridTt
Old 04-02-2008, 03:27 PM #14 (permalink)  

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Fnord
Old 04-02-2008, 03:39 PM #15 (permalink)  
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I think frequency is pretty key here.

Doing this once in a while is good poker. Hero just picked the wrong person at the wrong time and misread his opponent's turn bet size.
 
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martindcx1e
Old 04-02-2008, 07:42 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HybridTt
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by HybridTt
4. its a dry board he can put you on a bluff easily...
don't drawy boards make it look bluffier?

also, b/f the flop. he isn't drawing, and you shouldn't want to play a big pot here.
thats what i said... its a dry board he can put us on a bluff, meaning he is more likely to call light and or reshove light.
i was saying it looks less like a bluff cuz we are obviously not semi-bluffing
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