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Do implied odds cover this situation?

  
 
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lowBoy
Old 05-28-2005, 12:05 AM     Post subject: Do implied odds cover this situation? #1 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 513
lowBoy
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+2 ($27.15)
MP1 ($9.75)
MP2 ($7.75)
MP3 ($77.8)
CO ($31.34)
Button ($22.35)
SB ($16.05)
BB ($13.85)
Hero ($32.9)
UTG+1 ($29.3)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T, A. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
Hero raises to $1, UTG+1 calls $1, UTG+2 calls $1, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1, 4 folds.

Flop: ($4.35) 5, 4, 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $2.5, UTG+1 raises to $5, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls $5, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($19.35) J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets $10, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls $10.

River: ($39.35) 9 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks.

Final Pot: $39.35

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has 4c 4d (three of a kind, fours).
MP3 has 7d 7h (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: MP3 wins $39.35.

The flop bet was to see if I could take down the flop right there after being the preflop raiser (yes, marginal play I know... gotta stop raising in EP with that stuff). The flop call after UTG+1 raised was with good odds.

What I'm wondering is if I should have called the turn bet. I knew that I was beat by one of them, but figured that my odds were good *if* UTG+1 called... I deliberated, and decided that I wasn't sure that he would call, so I folded this hand. The river came down and I cried a little, but I know to play the theory, not the results. Should I have called the 10$ bet?
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BobbySalami
Old 05-28-2005, 12:14 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Flush

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Limbo
Posts: 433
BobbySalami
Well....if you had position on UTG +1, there would have been ~$40 in the pot with a $10 bet to call....giving you 4:1 pot odds. You are getting about 5:1 odds to hit the flush. Also, given your position you were only getting 3:1. Therefore you made the right lay down on pot odds alone.

For implied odds, you have to be almost CERTAIN that they are going to call or bet if you hit your flush allowing you to take more of their money adding to your odds. Thats where you make your decision based on playing styles and stack sizes, if your implied odds are good enough to take your 3:1 odds to 5:1 odds.....

Hopefully I stated the above correctly.....
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Bmxicle
Old 05-28-2005, 12:50 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Generally speaking flushes don't have great implied odds because they are quite obvious. So if you don';t quite have pot odds then you can rely on getting a small bet in to make up for it.

I only really rely on implied odds with flushes when i have really disguised my hand by raising someones bet, and even then i need a read that they are willing to give their stack away often when i hit.
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 05-28-2005, 05:11 AM #4 (permalink)  
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If it was a straight draw, Yes definity. You can hide a straight draw very easily.

You can't call on the turn becuase your call doesnt close the action. If it did, you might have something to think about. But with someone behind you that could still reraise, you've gotta junk it.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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lowBoy
Old 05-28-2005, 08:12 AM #5 (permalink)  
Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 513
lowBoy
'rilla, I thought about those two things after posting this as well. Both of them had the set, and both came to a screeching halt on the flop, so I might not have gotten too much money from them when the flush did come... maybe UTG+1, as he might have felt pot comitted.

Thanks for the insights.
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