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Do I play draws too heavily for 100nl?

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wufwugy

07-22-2007, 10:57 PM Post subject: Do I play draws too heavily for 100nl?

#1 (permalink)

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Villian is a 2p2er. After his flop raise I was sure he most likely had a set. I can't fold due to equity, but I can hardly call due to possibility of not getting paid off if another spade hits. Maybe raising is good for metagame, but I dunno about that at 100nl. Also, I may not know how to USE the image this gives me. I'm new to LAG. Run at around 23/19 for fullring. I'm doing very well, but I have some glaring weaknesses that I recognize that my opponents don't because they're quite weak as well.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($103.70)
BB ($172.10)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($35.55)
Hero ($113.75)
CO ($123.55)
Button ($98.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A

, K

.
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) 9

, Q

, 3

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB raises to $22, Hero raises to $50

-----------------------

Villian is around 28/10/5 for like 50 hands. I'll felt flop no doubt, but should I be semi-bluffing the turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($19.20)
UTG+1 ($82.10)
MP1 ($72.95)
MP2 ($104.50)
MP3 ($92.40)
Hero ($109.20)
Button ($248.35)
SB ($213.10)
BB ($179.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T

, Q

.
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 3 folds, MP2 calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) 9

, J

, T

(2 players)
MP2 bets $5, Hero raises to $15, MP2 calls $10.

Turn: ($41.50) 6

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $27

I hate the first hand, but I don't know what to do there. It's just so obvious that I'm about a 3 to 1 dog most of the time. Second hand I like, but if I get action on the turn I'm actually a dog most likely.

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gabe

07-22-2007, 11:22 PM

#2 (permalink)

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gabe is an unknown quantity at this point

if you know he has a set, hes probably not folding. what are the chances hes just check raising a cbet on a scary board? the higher it is, the more often you should 3 bet.

with AsK you are 2.5:1 dog against a set, with 2 cards to come. you are getting 2.5:1 on the call. considering you arent going broke if the board pairs, calling seems better than raising again if you KNOW he has a set.

hand 2 is close and its +EV either way you play it. i think checking is a little better here because there is a good chance he has a similiar hand to yours (QJ or QT or low flush draw) and you might be able to win a big pot if he hits a card that completes an even bigger hand for you. also, you have showdown value, so you arent scared of having it check down.

euphoricism

07-22-2007, 11:25 PM

#3 (permalink)

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I think I check through the turn on #2. I feel like youre only getting called when behind and that makes it a 0 value bet. But the FE is nice.

I dont know. I'm a FR failure ;p

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bigspenda73

07-23-2007, 12:08 AM

#4 (permalink)

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My flop raise would be much larger in the QT hand, something around pot.

BankItDrew

07-23-2007, 01:08 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Nope, not here.

I think you played these hands just fine. I don't agree with checking the turn because a pair of tens is not a good showdown hand on the turn. There's a better chance that he has you beat than villain drawing. Thus, a second barrel could gain a fold from a stronger hand.

If you want to pick a spot to check, do it on the river.

euphoricism

07-23-2007, 02:50 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Fair point -- if we think a better hand will fold.

What better hand will fold?

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BankItDrew

07-23-2007, 04:06 AM

#7 (permalink)

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All pairs that don't include queens.

wufwugy

07-23-2007, 07:03 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Thank you for indulging me, gabe.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

with AsK you are 2.5:1 dog against a set, with 2 cards to come. you are getting 2.5:1 on the call. considering you arent going broke if the board pairs, calling seems better than raising again if you KNOW he has a set.

I dont' know he has a set, but it is the most likely hand, and I'm quite sure my FE is nill since I very much doubt he would coldcall me with KsQ then raise my cbet on this board. It's less likey that he has a flush, but he could. He doesn't know I know he's 2p2, but he considers himself one of the most solid 100nl fr regs, and he probably is.

Fold: Obviously, I can't. It's just too weak.

Call: I'm confused on how exactly to decipher the pot/bet size ratios and such from HHs, so I'm not sure exactly what my pot odds are. Implied odds are greater than 2.5 l.d.o, or at least they look like they are.

Let's say I call and the turn is a fourth spade. I have to bet out and big. I can't check hoping to raise since villian will check behind. I lose a lot of value that way. So I bet big, he may then fold because I'm not going to give him the odds to draw to his boat, and he'll know his set has become a draw or bluff catcher. He won't put me on a bluff because he's not retarded.

If I call and the turn is blank, I will not be able to continue on because villian will bet big enough to take away my odds.

if I call and the turn pairs the board I must fold.

Really looks to me like the reverse odds on calling are bad, and that I'm not getting full implied odds as well.

Raise: If i do, he'll push, no doubt. Even if he was an idiot with KsQ. I won't discount that a small percentage of the time, very small, I have the best hand because he was raising a cbet or something. Very unlikely here, but unlikely things happen. So I guess I do have some FE, just not much at all. If I raise then I get his entire stack every 1 in 3.5 times, but of course I lose the others. If I call, like I illustrated, I lose other amounts in other fashions.

I really just hate this situation, but my instinct is that the bold aggressive play is the better one because folding is wrong and calling is iffy. I'm too dumb to do the math, but it might be that calling is -ev as well due to not getting paid off often enough or folding ui tuns enough. But I really don't know.

Maybe I just bite it, curse the deck, and play it heavy.

wufwugy

07-23-2007, 07:07 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

My flop raise would be much larger in the QT hand, something around pot.

When recollecting the HH in my head I thought the pot was 15 and I raised to 15. Close, but not quite.

I don't quite understand the 'raise to' thing. If the pot is 10 and he bets 5 into it then I 'raise to' 15, did I bet pot, or is true pot bet there gonna be 'raise to' 20?

I've always been a bit confused on exactly how much I'm making it to the opposition when I raise. And I'm extremely stupid with numbers so I can't quite figure it out.

wufwugy

07-23-2007, 07:14 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I agree, actually.

bigspenda73

07-23-2007, 07:45 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

My flop raise would be much larger in the QT hand, something around pot.

Yea, I used to be confused about this too but then I went to AP who doesn't have a bet pot button and I figured it out. The pot was $11.50, MP2 bets $5 so it's $16.50 once it get to you. When you raise you still call his $5 bet so before you raise the pot is $21.50. So betting pot would be much larger than $15 total (your raise was only $10), I would have made it at least $20 but more like $23-25. Don't be fooled by his little less than 1/2 pot bet.

wufwugy

07-23-2007, 09:55 PM

#12 (permalink)

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So to raise pot, I just add what I need to call to pot size?

So if pot is 43 and I need to call 17 to continue then a pot raise is to 60?

Pants_101

07-24-2007, 12:24 PM

#13 (permalink)

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I think in hand 1 you should check behind on the flop. You have a draw to the nuts and not betting prevents the c/r which has put you in this nasty spot. On the turn you can try a delayed c-bet if he checks again and you havn't improved or check behind again. If he bets you only have 1 card to come and can figure the odds easily. At worst you get bluffed out of a small pot which is a small mistake. If you make your flush then you can bet for value or slowplay and try to trap him for a bet on the river.

As played meh. Calling seems bad, your're getting 2.5-1 but you may face another bet on the turn if no spade comes and he must put you on the ace after a call so it seems unlikely you'll win much more. Seems you are risking your whole stack to win $36. The re-raise is nice if he's messing about but if he has a set and pushes you are priced in and have to call and you're playing for your stack as a 2.5-1 dog. I would actually fold. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic though

I mean if he has QJ or something you're actually favourite right? And you have position.

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wufwugy

07-24-2007, 11:03 PM

#14 (permalink)

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You may be right about checking behind. I actually check a lot of flops with a wide range of hand strengths. I likely should have done that here.

As played, I think I have to 3 bet, though. Folding seems just too weak. It seems a part of LAG play is gambling with outs.

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Do I play draws too heavily for 100nl?

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