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A couple of interesting spots...

  
 
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gametight
Old 09-09-2007, 11:54 PM     Post subject: A couple of interesting spots... #1 (permalink)  
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Hand 1

Dont have much of a read on either of the villains. So far they just seem to be normal weekend donks...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($102.55)
MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($119.85)
Button ($72.30)
Hero ($98.45)
BB ($131.60)
UTG ($111.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A.
5 folds, Button raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $6, Button calls $5.

Flop: ($21) 6, J, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $17, BB calls $17, Button calls $17.

Turn: ($72) K (3 players)
Hero bets $74.45 (All-In), BB folds, Button folds.

Final Pot: $-2.45


Hand 2

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($105.85)
Hero ($97)
UTG ($98.25)
UTG+1 ($40.25)
MP1 ($95)
MP2 ($87.35)
CO ($54.25)
Button ($41.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
UTG calls $1, 4 folds, Button calls $1, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4) , , (4 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, UTG calls $12, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($32) (2 players)
Hero bets $24, UTG raises to $85.25, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $80


I was kind of lost on this turn raise. Looking back I guess I should have called. But I was thinking that it was probable he had a set, which would kill some of my flush outs. I also thought that he may have a hand like AT suited spades, which I would also be in trouble against.

Should I call here everytime? Or is this reeeally boarderline?
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gametight
Old 09-10-2007, 03:39 AM #2 (permalink)  
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gametight
Old 09-10-2007, 03:39 AM #3 (permalink)  
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bigspenda73
Old 09-10-2007, 03:49 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 you're not getting the right price on hand 2?

I thought that's why you bet the turn that big, so you're committed.
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Unibomber14
Old 09-10-2007, 03:50 AM #5 (permalink)  
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H1: looks fine

H2: Turn is fine, c/f the river since he is probably not calling the turn without a showdown hand.
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daven
Old 09-10-2007, 04:07 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 ok. I'll have a go.
Hand 1) Way to get rid of those draws. I play way too scared of sets/two pairs masquerading as draws but either of these would have to be incredibly stupid to smooth call with a flush draw on the board. I think you're ahead, but too risky to see the river for cheap. I like it.
Hand 2) so you're losing this hand unless you hit the river. And maybe even then. $60 dollars more to return $200-ish right. Absolute best case scenario is 15 outs, and a set or two spades you're probably in all kinds of trouble. Good fold
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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bigspenda73
Old 09-10-2007, 04:11 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 wait, you just said $60 to win $200 and you have 15 outs, good fold?

Um, that'd be a horrible fold.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-10-2007, 04:11 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Also it isn't 60 to win 200, it's 60 to win 140 I believe which makes it a call getting better than 2:1 on your money.
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daven
Old 09-10-2007, 05:37 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
wait, you just said $60 to win $200 and you have 15 outs, good fold?

Um, that'd be a horrible fold.
umm, i said at best 15 outs. If they were clean it would be different. But the next thing I said is that they are most likely not clean outs... I think he most likely has either exactly three outs (the jacks if villain has higer spades AND a pair, likely) or 12 outs (villain has a set).
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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Unibomber14
Old 09-10-2007, 07:05 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Sorry for my first post, I read the hand wrong.

I think it is marginal. I did the math, but had an interesting time. Math really isn't my thing. Could someone do the math here please?
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gametight
Old 09-10-2007, 07:09 AM #11 (permalink)  
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When he pushed the turn, I figured that his most likely holding was a set. That would give me 8 striaght outs and 7 flush outs.

So its 15 outs and $60 to win $140 with one card to come.

If I know he has a set, I think its just barely a call. He could also play AT spades this way which would give me 11 outs.

I guess this is one of those situations where it doesnt matter what I do because its so close.

Let me know if my calculations are off. If someone could show how they figure this out quickly at the table I would like to see it posted please.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-10-2007, 07:10 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 I get us, worst case scenario against a range of sets, top 2pr and higher FD's with pairs as a 30% underdog.

That makes it a call, and that's worst case scenario.
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salsa4ever
Old 09-10-2007, 09:37 AM #13 (permalink)  
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hand 2 is like insta call...
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Pants_101
Old 09-10-2007, 11:39 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Hand 2 is close your break even percentage is 30% and you are 30% to win not counting redraws. But I think the bet itself is a mistake, it puts a third of your stack in which pot commits you so if you're going to fold to an allin you shouldn't make that bet. Either check and see what odds you are offered or bet bigger so you will have the odds to easily call the shove.
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Miffed22001
Old 09-10-2007, 07:23 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 raise to $15 on flop in 1 and pot turn then i think you get odds, but i did quick math...
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bigspenda73
Old 09-10-2007, 07:36 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 I think hand 2 is a triple barrell if opponent never raises.

I'd find a turn bet size that allows me to shove every river card but also one that coommits me to the pot.
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Old 09-10-2007, 08:16 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unibomber14
I think it is marginal. I did the math, but had an interesting time. Math really isn't my thing. Could someone do the math here please?
Hero has to call 60 to win 140 which is 2.33:1 so he needs 30.03% equity against villains range. Against a range of TT/99/55 hero has 29.54% equity. Of course the range is probably wider, making this a call.

Simple math:
($4 + $28 +$24 +$24 +$60 +$60) *(.2954) - $60 = -0.92 everytime he makes this call.

equation above.
(preflop + flop + turn bet + his bet + his raise + your call) * (your equity) - your call = your profit.
to figure out the percentage it's (1/3.33). add 1 to whatever it is :1
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BankItDrew
Old 09-11-2007, 02:23 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 If we are calling this raise in hand 2, why aren't we just pushing the turn?


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Jack Sawyer
Old 09-11-2007, 02:37 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 1) no comment
2) push
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