www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

Combo draw hand...

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

DLC11

03-09-2007, 11:49 AM Post subject: Combo draw hand...

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Indiana

Posts: 71

To become less predictable, I have been trying to play my combo draws the same way I would play a set. Problem is, I continue to run into sets when I do this. I would really like some input on the hand below. I feel there is a strong chance that villian (no reads) has a set here. Even if I think he does have a set, I shouldn't fold this, should I?

Is this how I should play almost all of my combo draws?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($162.55)
Hero ($199)
SB ($398.70)
BB ($82.70)
UTG ($261.45)
UTG+1 ($471.95)
MP1 ($125.15)
MP2 ($306.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7

, J

.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 calls $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($11) 8

, 9

, 4

(5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $11, CO calls $11, Hero raises to $40, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $123.15, CO folds, Hero ?????

Think big, or suck.

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

Muzzard

03-09-2007, 12:10 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

Its a decent flop for you, but the 3 bet on th flop is either 89 or 4's, or Axh - most probably a set of 4's. This is an easy fold IMO you are drawing thin to all these hands.

Don't go broke in an unraised pot.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 419 42.32 571 57.68 0 0.00 0.423
8s 9d 571 57.68 419 42.32 0 0.00 0.577

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 280 28.28 710 71.72 0 0.00 0.283
Ah 5h 710 71.72 280 28.28 0 0.00 0.717

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 335 33.84 655 66.16 0 0.00 0.338
4s 4c 655 66.16 335 33.84 0 0.00 0.662

89 is your best hope but I feel this is 4's mostly. The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

zenbitz

03-09-2007, 09:12 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Posts: 2,911

raise or fold preflop. I would say fold outright, but you do have the button.

2_Thumbs_Up

03-10-2007, 04:52 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

Check your math here. He is getting over 2:1 on his call. The dead money makes this a call even if villain has a set.

Muzzard

03-10-2007, 05:03 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

Check your math here. He is getting over 2:1 on his call. The dead money makes this a call even if villain has a set.

Please explain.. my poker math isn't great I know..I didn't add the CO call on the flop so the pot is 185. But still I don't understand how that makes it a 2:1 shot?

koolmoe

03-10-2007, 05:18 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

Please explain.. my poker math isn't great I know..I didn't add the CO call on the flop so the pot is 185. But still I don't understand how that makes it a 2:1 shot?

185:83 is approximately 2.2:1

Poker is freedom

bigspenda73

03-10-2007, 05:18 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,546

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

He wins the pot at least 1 time out of every 3 total times we see both a turn and river card therefore to break even on this call he would only need to call 1/2 of the pot, or he would need to win $2 for every $1 he calls with. 2 times out of 3 he calls 83 and loses it which is -$166. 1 time out of the 3 he calls 83 and wins an extra $190. Therefore, every time he makes this call he should expect to make $8 on average.

It's early and Im not sure if I calculated correctly but that is the jist of it.

2_Thumbs_Up

03-10-2007, 05:22 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

Check your math here. He is getting over 2:1 on his call. The dead money makes this a call even if villain has a set.

Please explain.. my poker math isn't great I know..I didn't add the CO call on the flop so the pot is 185. But still I don't understand how that makes it a 2:1 shot?

Well, explaining math on internet is hard but i'll give it a shot.

His pot odds are 185:83. If you simplify that you get a little over 2.2 : 1 (185/83 = 2.2). For every time he wins the pot he can afford to lose it 2.2 times.

And then we have his equity vs. a set.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 335 33.84 655 66.16 0 0.00 0.338
4s 4c 655 66.16 335 33.84 0 0.00 0.662

It's the same thing here. His odds to win are 0.662 : 0.338. Simplify that and you get 1.95 : 1 (0.662/0.338 = 1.95).

If he would get 1.95:1 on his money he would break even by calling. Now his pot odds are greater than that.

griffey24

03-10-2007, 05:25 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: Toronto'ish

Posts: 4,611

The pot is about $174 and hero is faced with about an $83 call. So her needs 83/(83+174) = 0.32 or 32% chance of winning to make this call.

So its a call, even against a set.

Muzzard

03-10-2007, 05:43 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

Thankyou, I understand now!

So if I add his call to the pot also.. that gives me 83/(185+83)= 0.31. Which is less than the EV vs 4's so it makes it a call!

On a further note could someone explain how to calculate the actual $ that we win on average every time we make this call.

I'll have a stab..

We lose 2 out of three times at a cost of -$83
We win once gaining an extra $185

(-83 x 2)+185 =19... 19/3=6.333

So on average we win $6.33?

koolmoe

03-10-2007, 08:16 PM

#11 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

(-83 x 2)+185 =19... 19/3=6.333

So on average we win $6.33?

you got it

Poker is freedom

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 04:57 PM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

Full Ring NL Hold'em

Combo draw hand...

Play for FREE and practice your game at...