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Chasing the obvious draw - is this a good time?

  
 
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DaHorror
Old 08-03-2006, 10:39 PM     Post subject: Chasing the obvious draw - is this a good time? #1 (permalink)  
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$25 NL on Hold'em Poker, which is extremely fishy, though a lot of the $25 NL players are at least reasonable. All of the players in this hand were between 20-30 VPIP%, 5%ish pfr or less, and avg. agro factors, 1.5-2.

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No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.15/$0.25
10 players
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Stack sizes:
UTG: $18.85
UTG+1: $30.35
UTG+2: $24.55
MP1: $15
MP2: $26.10
MP3: $38.35
CO: $12.90
Button: $23.20
xTheHorrorx: $52.60
BB: $4.60

Pre-flop: (10 players) xTheHorrorx is SB with A K
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.5, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, xTheHorrorx calls, BB folds.

I figured that I had zero fold equity preflop, and my position is poor, thus no preflop reraise. I'll call and reevaluate based on the flop and action.

Flop: 4 T 8 ($7.75, 5 players)
xTheHorrorx checks, UTG+2 bets $4.5, MP1 raises all-in $13.5, MP2 calls, Button folds,

Alright so I hit the nut flush draw. Headsup or 3-way if I was driving the action I would certainly lead out here. But in this case, I'll just check my odds. Preflop raiser leads for 2/3 pot, shortstack pushes - that could be top pair or worse...MP2 simply calls - that could seriously just be a draw at this site but I can no longer expect my overs to be good at this point. But the pot has $39.50 in it and I have to call $13.5 into that, or push.

What's your play? Is it legit to call here, and then obviously to call a push from the other players involved?
Needless to say, it's a gamble...but they payoff is appealing.

More to follow...
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Miffed22001
Old 08-03-2006, 10:41 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 call or push.
you aret folding the turn anyway, and with all the money in meh.
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givememyleg
Old 08-03-2006, 11:13 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I'm folding here. Go ahead and draw to your (maybe) 9 outs if you feel frisky.

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Miffed22001
Old 08-03-2006, 11:23 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
I'm folding here. Go ahead and draw to your (maybe) 9 outs if you feel frisky.
hes getting close to the right odds on the flop if he calls and if other opp pushes hes still getting odds, as well as getting them on turn.
never a fold imo
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givememyleg
Old 08-03-2006, 11:32 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I didn't notice the overcall....

If you push I know MP2 is calling, but UTG+2?

I think if I were to gambool here, I would rather push then just see a turn. Is the reason behind calling to get utg+2's stack in as well rather than scaring him out?

I guess I'm just not good at gambling...

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DaHorror
Old 08-04-2006, 04:31 AM #6 (permalink)  
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You hit it leggy - I want UTG+2's money in the pot. I don't want to risk scaring him off an overpair by pushing, whereas I think if I just call...well if he's gonna play at all he'll push.

I think I was trying to second-guess myself as to whether or not this was a clear +EV situation to take my 30% chance to win and put all my money in. But I think running the numbers, 7 times in 10 I lose $26, but 3 times in 10 I get $92 (my $26 back + $66 in profit), for a clear net gain.

Am I missing something about the calculation, or is this, as Miffed indicated, never a fold?
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Ravageur
Old 08-04-2006, 05:05 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I would push here, but that's me. A lot of the time you're up against top pair, a worse flush draw or a meaningless straight draw just as much as you're up against a set. You're leading QQ, JJ here remember....

I guess it depends how agressive you want to play your draws. I definitely think it's call or push though, because you want to give yourself a chance to see the turn and river, and not check/fold a missed turn.
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DaHorror
Old 08-04-2006, 05:11 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I elected to call to give myself the best shot at getting UTG+2's money in there as well. I think this was a semi-unique situation, as with all the action and two callers, it looks more like UTG+2 has the best hand at this point, so he does in fact push, which is what I was hoping. Turns out it was a questionable play as I was up against 2 sets and an overpair!
Fortunately for me, I ended up in the 30% this time around...and built my biggest NL $25 stack to date.
I almost felt bad about it, thus the post questioning the play and the massive suckout.

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.15/$0.25
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $18.85
UTG+1: $30.35
UTG+2: $24.55
MP1: $15
MP2: $26.10
MP3: $38.35
CO: $12.90
Button: $23.20
xTheHorrorx: $52.60
BB: $4.60

Pre-flop: (10 players) xTheHorrorx is SB with A K
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.5, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, xTheHorrorx calls, BB folds.

Flop: 4 T 8 ($7.75, 5 players)
xTheHorrorx checks, UTG+2 bets $4.5, MP1 raises all-in $13.5, MP2 calls, Button folds, xTheHorrorx calls, UTG+2 raises all-in $18.55, MP2 calls all-in $11.1, xTheHorrorx calls.

b]Turn:[/b] 6 ($89, 1 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $61.75, Sidepot 1: $15.15, Sidepot 2: $12.1)


River: 7 ($89, 1 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $61.75, Sidepot 1: $15.15, Sidepot 2: $12.1)


Results:
Final pot: $89
MP2 shows 10H10D
xTheHorrorx shows AC KC
UTG+2 shows AD AS
MP1 shows 8H 8C


Odds:
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc 4c 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Td Th 514 62.68 306 37.32 0 0.00 0.627
Ac Kc 237 28.90 583 71.10 0 0.00 0.289
As Ad 30 3.66 790 96.34 0 0.00 0.037
8c 8h 39 4.76 781 95.24 0 0.00 0.048
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Miffed22001
Old 08-04-2006, 07:15 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 when this much money is involved on one street and the pot odds are too good you just cant fold.
Nice suckout btw
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DaHorror
Old 08-04-2006, 07:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Thx for the support and the gratz

The oddest thing about this hand - I would have folded if MP2 had pushed with his set of tens instead of calling...his call, along with the assumption that UTG+2 would push if I just called, gave me the odds.

Nice work on the XX btw
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