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Chasing a draw on implied odds.

  
 
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Blinky
Old 10-11-2006, 03:22 PM     Post subject: Chasing a draw on implied odds. #1 (permalink)  
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EDIT: after posting this and reviewing the HH, I think I've come up with my answers for most of these questions... but I'll leave this up for discussion and see how my answers correlate with the general wisdom.

1. Opp is quite loose preflop and has been limping the majority of hands preflop. Postflop he's a bit passive.

2. I haven't done anything in about 20-30 odd hands at this table except win a pot with pfr/cbet.

3. What is the payback that I need on the turn+river to justify my loose flopcall? Is it roughly 10:1 on implied odds, meaning that I need to make about $30?

4. Is this an appropriate situation to go for an implied odds draw? Rainbow board but it's quite coordinated.

5. What is suggested turn line? Lead strong? Lead weak? Check (probably not given the read, but worth mentioning)?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button ($19.50)
Hero ($100.50)
BB ($100)
UTG ($170.15)
UTG+1 ($58.55)
MP1 ($63)
MP2 ($100.75)
CO ($109.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) , , (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $3, Button folds, Hero calls $3, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($11) (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero ....
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Originally Posted by Rondavu
We will not support your pocket pair aggression.
 
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DaHorror
Old 10-11-2006, 03:29 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I don't think his hand is strong enough to pay you off here and it's a limped pot to boot - implied odds == not worth it.

As it stands, I would want to know now how much he likes his hand and would lead out on the turn.
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zook
Old 10-11-2006, 04:57 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I don't like it, mainly because your straight is obvious if it hits and the pot is small, so you're going to have trouble getting enough money in the pot to justify the call if you do hit. On the turn, bet $10 and hope that's big enough to make him think you're trying to push him out.
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bode
Old 10-11-2006, 05:01 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 implied odds arent really that good here.

as played, defiinitly lead out for atleast 2/3 pot
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Blinky
Old 10-12-2006, 05:54 PM #5 (permalink)  
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well... since this was such a popular topic

It's not a great situation to go for an implied-odds draw.:

1) it's an unraised, A-high flop.
2) draw is not particularly well concealed. It's not a likely draw but it is apparent to the eye.
3) perhaps most important, Opp is PASSIVE. If opp is laggtard or the type who frequenly tries to push others off hands, chasing the draw is more likely +ev.

As played:

I lead for something like $6 on the turn; flat called. River was a blank. I lead for something like $10 on river. Flat called. Opp turned over A4... a pity he didn't raise the turn but oh well...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
We will not support your pocket pair aggression.
 
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Rondavu
Old 10-12-2006, 08:46 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I like the direction you're thinking after each flop. Most people don't properly assess postflop implied odds. Of course, this hand is a very bad implied odds situation, even if the villain has a set.

The fact is it is proper to overpay for certain draws on certain boards against certain players with certain ranges. This is very generally stated, but that's just how it works. It's a very robust topic to be certain.

You can also improve your own implied odds. I do this by floating a phantom flush draw early in a session in position against someone who both won't semi bluff OOP, and is capable of folding. When 3 to a suit hits, raise that sucker hard, and show complete garbage. IMO this sets up implied odds for your made flushes against every person at the table. Getting implied odds for a future flush or two is VERY valuable. Flushes rarely pay off as you know, so valuewise this is a big deal for your sessions.

I was in a tournament two nights ago, and in a hand with Action Jeff Garza. I raised a flushing turn hard in position, made him fold and showed him garbage. A few hands later he payed off my set with half his stack holding second pair 4 kicker.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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