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Catching a set with 3 to a suit and many limpers

  
 
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Lodogg
Old 04-07-2006, 10:26 PM     Post subject: Catching a set with 3 to a suit and many limpers #1 (permalink)  
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Lodogg :
Limps from UTG
4 other limpers jump in
Flops comes:

What's your move?

1.) Raise to take away drawing odds, but risk walking into a made hand?
2.) Check/Call and hope to catch a boat?
3.) Raise Preflop in order to avoid these kind of situations?
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 04-07-2006, 10:41 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Chances are that nobody flopped the flush. There is a very good chance that at least someone has a heart though. Even if you get called and another heart comes, they aren't going to be able to bet it very hard with any obvious flush out there. In that case you very may well be given the odds to draw to the boat.
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bair
Old 04-07-2006, 10:46 PM #3 (permalink)  
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it would be nice to know the action to you, what stakes you are playing, etc...i cant really tell you to raise since you didnt tell me someone bet and how much
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Fnord
Old 04-07-2006, 11:17 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Bet and see what happens.
 
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littlewashu
Old 04-08-2006, 03:26 PM #5 (permalink)  
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large bet here maybe 7xbb if hes drawing to a flush make him pay for the next card
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jackvance
Old 04-08-2006, 03:44 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Also remember this, if you have hit a set on the flop, you can count on 1/3 to hit a boat (or quads) on turn+river. Odds-wise, chasing a flush if you know your opp has TP, is the same as playing a set if you know for a fact your opp has hit his flush/straight. Ofcourse the practical difference is that your set usually is the winner, regardless if you hit a boat/quads or not, and typically when you chase a straight or flush, you always lose if you don't hit. Just remember that with a set you're pretty good. Even if you're beat by a flush or straight, 1/3 you'll still win.

Case scenario.
Your hand: 6d 6h
Opp hand: 2c Jc

Flop: Ac 6c Tc

You still have 34.4% chance to win over turn+river.

Let's say the pot is $100. Your opp has a made flush, as in the above example, and raises $80. Here you have to invest $80 into a $260 pot, or roughly 30% to call. So pot odds justify it. Ofcourse, there's always the eternal question of "but I have to pay a turn raise too if I don't hit on the turn" vs "implied odds when I hit".
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Pelion
Old 04-08-2006, 05:26 PM     Post subject: Re: Catching a set with 3 to a suit and many limpers #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lodogg
Lodogg :
Limps from UTG
4 other limpers jump in
Flops comes:

What's your move?

1.) Raise to take away drawing odds, but risk walking into a made hand?
2.) Check/Call and hope to catch a boat?
3.) Raise Preflop in order to avoid these kind of situations?
Ive been struggling with these lately. It seems like im almost always up against a flopped flush if anyone plays back at me.

How about the board above but then : You bet in earlyish position and someone late minraises.

Do you raise or call?

If you call and the turn and river come blanks how much more are you prepared to commit to this pot against your average slightly-loose slightly too passive 10NL or 25NL player.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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sejje
Old 04-08-2006, 06:12 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
Let's say the pot is $100. Your opp has a made flush, as in the above example, and raises $80. Here you have to invest $80 into a $260 pot, or roughly 30% to call. So pot odds justify it. Ofcourse, there's always the eternal question of "but I have to pay a turn raise too if I don't hit on the turn" vs "implied odds when I hit".
I think you mean your opponent bets $80. So you're investing $80 to win a $180 pot.

You can't count your money in the pot before you put it in there.
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jackvance
Old 04-08-2006, 06:20 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sejje
I think you mean your opponent bets $80. So you're investing $80 to win a $180 pot.

You can't count your money in the pot before you put it in there.
Ugh, please not again..

If you want to calculate your % for pot odd calculation, you have to count your input vs what the pot will be if you would make the call.

Otherwise in a $1000 raise on a $10 pot you'd need $1000 into $1010 or 99% to win to call. Obviously everything over 50% is a good call, so you need to calculate $1000 into a $2010 pot or 48%. Which would make intuitive sense.
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Pelion
Old 04-08-2006, 06:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Sejje is comparing pot odds to odds of making a hand and seeing which is greater.

Jackvance is comparing the price of a call to his pot equity and seeing if it is worth "buying" that equity or giving it up.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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jackvance
Old 04-08-2006, 06:53 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Sejje is comparing pot odds to odds of making a hand and seeing which is greater.
Hm. The thing is, unless you read it like 80 into 180 or 80:180 or 4:9 or about 30%, which is the same as the calculation I made.. I don't really see the merit. For example 80 into 180 would give you 44%. Now, what good is this number? Can you derive anything practical from it?

Just curious.
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nutsinho
Old 04-08-2006, 07:12 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
Quote:
Originally Posted by sejje
I think you mean your opponent bets $80. So you're investing $80 to win a $180 pot.

You can't count your money in the pot before you put it in there.
Ugh, please not again..

If you want to calculate your % for pot odd calculation, you have to count your input vs what the pot will be if you would make the call.

Otherwise in a $1000 raise on a $10 pot you'd need $1000 into $1010 or 99% to win to call. Obviously everything over 50% is a good call, so you need to calculate $1000 into a $2010 pot or 48%. Which would make intuitive sense.
No.
Pot is 100 on the flop you and your opponent each have 200$

flop is Qh 8s 7s , your opponent open pushes and flips over AdQd, you have 2s3s.

Should you call? No. You are getting 3:2 necessitating 40% equity not 5:2 where you need only 29%
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jackvance
Old 04-08-2006, 07:21 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
No.
Pot is 100 on the flop you and your opponent each have 200$

flop is Qh 8s 7s , your opponent open pushes and flips over AdQd, you have 2s3s.

Should you call? No. You are getting 3:2 necessitating 40% equity not 5:2 where you need only 29%
Ehm, $200 into a $500 pot, the way I calculate it, *is* 40%, not 29%.

200/500=0.4=40%.

EDIT:
So it's basically that 2:3=2/5 that is leading to this confusion. I just find it easier to use fractions because they calculate easier in practice. Personal preference.
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sejje
Old 04-08-2006, 07:47 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
Ehm, $200 into a $500 pot, the way I calculate it, *is* 40%, not 29%.

200/500=0.4=40%.
That's what he said. In the example, when you call 200 off to win 300 in the pot, that's 3:2, 40%. Calling with the flush draw is wrong here.

Your example requires 500 already in the pot to call with a draw that hits over 29% of the time.
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jackvance
Old 04-08-2006, 08:19 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sejje
That's what he said. In the example, when you call 200 off to win 300 in the pot, that's 3:2, 40%. Calling with the flush draw is wrong here.

Your example requires 500 already in the pot to call with a draw that hits over 29% of the time.
No, we're doing exactly the same calculation, using a different route. If you reread the strategy article here on FTR, you can see that there they also add what you have to call for to the pot, and then use this amount again as a fraction.

So basically,
me: $200 into what will be a $500 pot, 2/5=40%
you: $200 into a $300 pot, 2:3=40%

See? Same thing.
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