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sk8r_daniel
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11-09-2009, 02:26 AM
Post subject: Can I Fold The Set??
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 330
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$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hero is in CO, Dealt 5c5s
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was running 12/11 over 200 hands or so and I had never checkraised a flop or turn, and had never seen him bluff. So I knew his raise was for value...
Stacks:
UTG ($52.15)
UTG+1 ($160.90)
MP1 ($96.70)
MP2 ($104.60)
CO ($109.98)
BTN ($44.84)
SB ($97.50)
BB ($108.05)
Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 8 players)
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2
Flop:    ($15.50, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $11, 1 fold, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $11, MP2 folds
Turn:  ($37.50, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets $22, UTG+1 goes all-in $146.90, [color=#cc0000][b]
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Kbryce23
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Michigan
Posts: 152
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yea
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Snap fold
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sk8r_daniel
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 330
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sorry, i have never seen him checkraise...
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sk8r_daniel
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.
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I don't get this. Isn't it about whether or not he has AA or KK? Why would i care about pot odds.
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Belt
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Istanbul
Posts: 95
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I'm a micro stakes player, so I may be missing something here... But the guy reps a very tight range. We only need 32% equity and against AA, 99-66 we have %36. We even don't need KK in his range. Can we really put this guy on only sets + str8? And also, I can't see any str8s in his range (except 88 of course).
I would have called this...
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sk8r_daniel
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.
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I don't get this. Isn't it about whether or not he has AA or KK? Why would i care about pot odds. |
I rarely see FR nits turn AA/KK into bluff at this stake.You rep a very strong rang on the turn and the guy happily CRAI.Sorry,I don't think bottom set is good enough to call here. Maybe I call with Mid or top set here depending on game flow and his tendency blah blah.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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I'm pretty sure you have less than 36% equity. I think his range is weighted mostly towards 77 and 88. This would be a really strange line with AA.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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BTW,if you can't find the fold button and always get married to your set in these marginal situations vs nits,you will not improve your win rate drastically in the long run.
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sk8r_daniel
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 330
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I totally understand what his range is made up of and I know it would be really stupid for anyone to bet AA or KK like this...infact I knew he had the goods.
What I don't understand is the 36% equity you are talking about. Does that mean that he would have to show up with AA/KK 36% of the time for it to be profitable, since its such a huge overbet?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Read this and all will be understood: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html
P.S. Ignore the "extra credit" portions.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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sk8r_daniel
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 330
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I feel like a noob
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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You're supposed to.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,455
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lol @ betting this turn
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"the world def needs more bikeses"
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jaycism
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: bay area
Posts: 1
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i would say its an easy lay down. too much money and you can always wait for a sure hand
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,807
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why are you betting the turn?
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sk8r_daniel
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by daven
why are you betting the turn?
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Honestly... I was trying to put him on a range...while my time was running out quickly(Titan sucks for this) so i thought .. hey i have a set and now I'll bet...I'm so used to playing live, where the regs all limp 77 and 88 so maybe I was thinking he must just be playing AA really weird.
I just didn't factor that he is almost never going to have 2 pair or a drawing hand here and i'm probably already crushed. The bet also looks pretty bad because TT-AA(the only hands that I'm beating right now) may fold to the turn bet, but would call a river value bet.
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ljove
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 80
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yes you must fold here
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