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dev

03-12-2008, 10:35 PM Post subject: Calling station ranges

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: swonging and swonging

Posts: 1,550

Ok, so the table itself is absurdly taggy. This V was calling a lot, everyone else raised or folded everything. Button was a reg, 9/6/1, so I was ready to just give up if he ever woke up.

V is 60/15/3, only over 35 hands, but it's enough to say he's loose.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($17.10)
BB ($14.35)
UTG ($13.30)
UTG+1 ($27.20)
MP1 ($24.60)
MP2 ($80.55)
Hero ($28.50)
Button ($29.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8

, 9

.
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50.

Flop: ($1.60) 4

, 2

, 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1.

Turn: ($3.60) T

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB folds.

Final Pot: $3.60

Here's the issue:
V's calling range preflop is huge, his calling range on the flop I don't think changes too much here. Since I had seen him fold on later streets before, I figure I have some FE. My question is how much FE? Without a sample set, all we have to work with is a stereotype, this guy is a calling station. This is such a common situation at this limit. Even playing during the day, I rarely have a decent sample set on more than 2 players at a given table.

So to find out if a c-bet is good here, we need his calling range, his folding range, and his raising range.

Calling range:
66,44,22,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo,T9o
(7.4% of total hands, we have 22%EQ)

folding range:
AJs,A9s-A2s,KJs+,K9s-K8s,QJs,97s+,87s,76s,AJo+,A9o-A2o,KJo+,K9o,QJo,J9o,97o+,87o (22% of total hands)

raising range:
I have no idea, but we're folding if he does.

So we'll say he raises 10% of the time and if he does, we forfeit all equity by folding.

-starts math-
-stops math-

I stopped halfway thru the math because if my ranges are correct than this bet is super +++++EV. At the time I made it I thought it was a really unique situation. I was going based on a non-stat-based read. He folded on the turn before, he folded on the river before. He was loose. The more I look at it I get into these situations fairly often. How often can you expect a guy like this to fold to a second or third barrel? At what point can we say it's better to take the free card for a str8. We have a hand that's beat by anything and everything if we blank the river, so we're not playing for a call-down, we're playing for a fold. With a hand so weak we either completely give up on it or we try to bluff here and then make the same decision again on the river.

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Muzzard

03-13-2008, 01:31 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

I can't be bothered to read your post fully because after I looked at the hand and the title it does not make sense.

We dont need to bluff callign stsations ever, becasue when we do hit a hand we take them to valuetown.

pokerfan

03-13-2008, 03:58 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007

Location: NS, Canada

Posts: 1,736

dont bluff loose stations in lower stake games. However, it's an excellent spot to double barrel against standard players. Usually, if tightish players still call my turn bet, i shove his ass on the river, which works like a charm.

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