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Sed
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01-20-2005, 02:49 PM
Post subject: Call vs. odds...
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wastin' away again in margaritaville....
Posts: 1,102
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Been working on my ring game skills...
Here is the situation (not exactly correct but close enough)
I am dealt
 
in the small blind and limp after 2 other limpers. BB raises to 3x
It is called around.
flop comes
  
giving me an OESD and middle pair...
I bet out ~1/2 pot and the BB raises all-in ~2x the pot at that point.
1 limper folds and the big stack (got me covered) calls. The BB bet smells like an overpair but not a high overpair maybe 99-JJ and I figure the big stack for overcards. I also figure the two other sixes as extra outs. 8-10 outs
I am getting pot odds of ~2.4:1, do you call?
- sed
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I would call only if you stand to make extra money off the big stack by hitting one of your outs. How much money has he got left? You have to be able to get enough to offset what is essentially a call against unfavorable pot odds.
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Sed
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wastin' away again in margaritaville....
Posts: 1,102
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The calll would be about 1/3 of my stack and the big stack has more than me.
- sed
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No fear, go deep or go home!
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sed
The calll would be about 1/3 of my stack and the big stack has more than me.
- sed
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Then it's really a question of your opinion of the big stack player. Is he loose, tight, aggressive, passive? Do you think you can get a significant amount of his chips if you hit one of your outs? Your outs make you about a 4:1 dog, so you want somewhere around 5:1 on this call as the payout to make this a good move, or at least 4:1 to break even. Since the pot is already giving you 2.4:1, you need that other 2:1 from him. So if this call is 1/3 of your stack, you would need him to pay off a bet of the rest of your chips to get that extra 2:1. That doesn't factor in any possibility that he's bluffing and that you already have him beat, which may be irrelevant if the big blind already has YOU beat (i.e. you end up only winning the side pot with the big stack).
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Sed
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wastin' away again in margaritaville....
Posts: 1,102
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With 8-10 outs I thought I was coming close to being 2.5 : 1 dog justifying the call...
10 outs is about 40% right?
- sed
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No fear, go deep or go home!
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sed
With 8-10 outs I thought I was coming close to being 2.5 : 1 dog justifying the call...
10 outs is about 40% right?
- sed
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Not quite - you've only seen 5 cards, leaving 47 mystery cards out there. Your 10 outs are roughly a 4:1 shot to land on the turn. 40% is about right with two cards to come, but you're presuming that you're going to get both cards for the price of one call - and the typical big stack player is going to bet into you on the turn when you miss the draw.
For me, calculating pot odds on the flop starts with the odds of hitting on the next card, not the next two. You can't assume you're going to get a free look at that second card.
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magicmntn
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 37
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this seems like an easy call to me. you already have the odds to call with the big stack calling as well. Even if you miss your draw on the turn, odds are the big stack will be more than happy to check around with someone all in, unless he made his hand already.
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