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Call this ugly river?

  
 
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Elninho
Old 07-23-2006, 07:58 AM     Post subject: Call this ugly river? #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 10
Elninho
POKERSTARS GAME #5651066432: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) -

Table 'Walhalla' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: kingcobraz ($41.50 in chips)
Seat 2: PlumpPete ($51.65 in chips)
Seat 3: tubasteve8 ($56.70 in chips)
Seat 4: StrikR300 ($50 in chips)
Seat 5: El Niñho ($50 in chips)
Seat 6: FTIBBS ($44.75 in chips)
Seat 7: maxthedog1 ($73.35 in chips)
Seat 8: j cleez ($26.25 in chips)
Seat 9: FyrManMyke ($30.75 in chips)

FTIBBS: posts small blind $0.25
maxthedog1: posts big blind $0.50

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to El Niñho [Tc 8c]

j cleez: folds
FyrManMyke: calls $0.50
kingcobraz: folds
PlumpPete: folds
tubasteve8: folds
StrikR300: folds
El Niñho: raises $2 to $2.50
FTIBBS: folds
maxthedog1: calls $2
FyrManMyke: calls $2

*** FLOP *** [Qs Jc 9s]

maxthedog1: bets $3
FyrManMyke: folds
El Niñho: raises $6 to $9
maxthedog1: calls $6

*** TURN *** [Qs Jc 9s] [Jh]

maxthedog1: bets $6
El Niñho: calls $6

*** RIVER *** [Qs Jc 9s Jh] [3s]
maxthedog1: bets $15
El Niñho: ??

First off, I know I probably fucked up big time at the turn. Villain in this hand is pretty tight and when he called me on the flop I was very certain he had an overpair, a set or a big flushdraw and not some kind of toppair or one-card open ended straight draw. Then when the turn pairs I kind of just freezed. He makes a very small bet, but Im not sure if it's a blocking bet or simply for value. Either way I still have the straight and folding is out of the question. Still, the call looks very weak. When the nightmare card hits on the river he fires another smallish bet (1/3-of the pot). I have $15 to call in a $50 pot and getting those odds it's very tempting... BUT, villain hasn't done much previous bluffing and it simply screams valuebet... Tough spot. Analysis appreciated.
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knoedel
Old 07-23-2006, 10:04 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 89
knoedel
Do you always raise with 8T in position? Definately bold, because you will flop a straight like 1% of the time and two pair like 5% (no exact numbers). Whatever, I would have called the river bet most likely. If villain is tight I wouldn't necessarily put him on a draw (would he call your raise on the flop unless he had AKs?). I would have raised big time on the turn to at least 18$ to see where I am at. Villain cannot put you on a atraight because of your unorthodox play (definately an advantage here, greetings to Danny N.).
Unfortunately a flush and a boat are all possibilities here after all, so call and lose 50% of the time.

Isn't a value bet a bet you make with a mediocre hand you think is the strongest? Like you hold AQ and the flop comes KKQ and villain checks to you? I might check the flop and value bet the turn or river here.

Villain might well bet out a small amount because he has a good (like two pair or trips) hand but doesn't want an expensive showdown on a dangerous board.
In order to live you have to be ready to die!
 
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Elninho
Old 07-23-2006, 05:28 PM #3 (permalink)  

Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 10
Elninho
When playing tight competition I raise a lot of hands in position, including some suited trash hands and one-gap offsuit connectors. I seem to take home a lot of small pots playing this way and I also get lots of action on my monster hands, wich can be pretty hard against nitlike competition. I agree that if villain is tight a draw is less likely than the made hands, I was figuring exactly AKs or perhaps a KJs he decided to get "crazy" with preflop

The turn is the critical point, and I have to agree I may should have raised. Remember though, as the hand played out I was able to keep the pot reasonably small, even if that quite likely was the wrong play. If we raise $18 and villain pushes, I guess there is no turning back, right? Regarding the "value bet" Im sure your definiton is right on the spot. I just used the term to describe what I perceived as a bet that wasnt a small blocking type of bet but rather a made made for pure value $$, that is he may have a great hand that he want to be payed off.
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Renton
Old 07-23-2006, 05:36 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
Renton will become famous soon enough
 I probably push the turn (not results oriented, theres just too many river cards you just don't wanna see).
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