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Call/Raise/Fold?

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Knytestorme

06-21-2007, 12:09 PM Post subject: Call/Raise/Fold?

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

MP2 is 13.2/2.6 over about 300 hands so far

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($44.95)
MP3 ($46.65)
CO ($57)
Button ($42.60)
Hero ($70.65)
BB ($57.15)
UTG ($71.25)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($44.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T

, J

.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.50) J

, T

, 9

(5 players)
Hero bets $1.5, BB folds, MP1 calls $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50, CO folds.

Turn: ($7) 4

(3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $7, Hero ???

My thoughts on stuff

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overflow

06-21-2007, 05:11 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 356

My advice here would be, call $7, try to get MP1 to take bad odds on what is probably a flush draw. If the diamond hits on the river I'd shut it down, if the river is a blank I check and call a value bet, but fold to a push. J or a T and I'd probably lead out around 10-15 depending on whether or not MP1 called behind you.

Fnord

06-21-2007, 05:26 PM

#3 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,334

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

I hate the pot control in this hand. I would often check this flop or fail that bet bigger.

With so much money behind, I like a turn bet since you can't commit with a c/r.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

overflow

06-21-2007, 05:38 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 356

Fnord: As played do you like my line? After a bit more thought it would be a shame to flat call and get squeezed if MP1 pushes with KQ and we don't get odds to draw to our boat.

Fnord

06-21-2007, 05:45 PM

#5 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,334

Not really.

I think we need a plan on the flop.

In a loose game, I'm checking for information intending on playing a turn. If people aren't betting out draws on flops like that I would just pot it myself and probably vommit if raised.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

overflow

06-21-2007, 06:08 PM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 356

That's not what I meant, I mean what's your line once we find ourselves in the predicament we find ourselves in on the turn? That's what I was referring to.

mixchange

06-21-2007, 06:18 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2006

Location: San Francisco, CA

Posts: 1,665

Really two ways I would play this hand, you do need a plan and stick to it

- Basically we are up against an OESFD but with multiple players. We have a 40% chance of our hand holding till the river so I'd prefer a big flop raise and turn raise looking to take it down, because each player has less equity at this point (unless they've flopped the straight). Shutdown on a scarecard...
- Or we can play it weak, knowing our hand is likely not holding to the river, and hope to take a small pot. If no scare cards fall, perhaps we get good value from top pair.

Fnord

06-21-2007, 06:23 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,334

Quote:

Originally Posted by overflow

That's not what I meant, I mean what's your line once we find ourselves in the predicament we find ourselves in on the turn? That's what I was referring to.

Don't get into those spots in the first place.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Fnord

06-21-2007, 06:26 PM

#9 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,334

Being a 40% favorite in a 3-way pot with lots of money behind sucks.

On the flop we want to define hands and get a pot going so we can play a turn. Since the pot is so small, a weak laydown is certainly in line.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Penfold

06-21-2007, 06:37 PM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2007

Posts: 87

to even consider folding here is horrible. this player could and should be betting tpgk and any two pairs when checked to in position. the reason we cant fold to one street of aggression is because our hand is very under represented. if he fires big again on the river we can think about folding. if we check this turn we have to call a bet. if we bet, we can fold to a raise.

Knytestorme

06-22-2007, 12:20 AM

#11 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

The more I think about this the more I hate my play.

My flop lead was too small, and then the check on the turn reaks of being on the flush draw and not wanting to get too committed.

The other option is that MP1 or 2 already had the made hand and were just flat calling to let me do the pot building for them and when I stopped they decided to do so since KQ or 78 were reall holdings in an unraised pot (then again so woiuld JT be I guess).

I was way too weak here and folded but say I lead the turn again for $5 or 6 and then got raised?...or if I again got flat called, river didn't bring a diamond or my boat and I get raised ai, what would be the plays there?

bigspenda73

06-22-2007, 12:35 AM

#12 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,546

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

Your relative position sucks hard

Ontop of that the river brings so many bad cards especially if the 3rd player calls the turn bet. It's a nitty fold but it seems like a reverse implied spot. We're not getting too great of a price on our call and once he pots the turn our hand shrinks greatly.

Knytestorme

06-22-2007, 12:42 AM

#13 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

Just run it through PS with their preflop ranges in place and seems like I was getting odds for the turn bet but that isn't taking into account MP1 still to act with a possible c/r

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,870,134 games 0.593 secs 3,153,682 games/sec

Board: Jd Td 9c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.117% 53.57% 00.55% 1001780 10283.00 { JsTh }
Hand 1: 19.037% 18.00% 01.04% 336601 19420.50 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 26.846% 25.88% 00.97% 483945 18104.50 { 77+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }

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