|
vegaas2
|
09-19-2005, 03:28 AM
Post subject: Bought Poker Flash Cards, they seem wrong.
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 51
|
|
Hey all, saw an article at the ESPN Poker Club about Poker Flash Cards, they seemed to like them so I ordered them. They stats they give just seem wrong to me. Here are some examples:
They say the odds of the board pairing is 45% on the turn or river.
You have a gutshot straight draw after the flop, they say you will hit the straight about 20% of the time.
They say if you hold an Ace you will flop one 20% of the time.
They say that if you hold an Ace the chance someone else also holds one at a full ten person table is 75%!
I am n0t a math wizard, but these numbers sure seem wrong to me.
|
|
Ram and Jam!
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
ensign_lee
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
|
|
They sure sound wrong to me...
|
|
|
|
Ivory
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 117
|
|
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=9366
maybe you can find something in here to confirm your suspicions
|
|
|
|
vegaas2
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 51
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ivory
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=9366
maybe you can find something in here to confirm your suspicions
|
Wow, a lot of info in that thread.
The cards only cost like $8, so not big loss there. But damn, if they are going to make them, get the damn numbers right.
|
|
Ram and Jam!
|
|
DoGGz
|
|
|
|
Um...
Gut shot draw is 4 outs on the turn 4 on the river. That's 8/46.5 . I'm not really sure why these are wrong.
|
|
|
|
IowaSkinsFan
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
|
|
these seem utterly right to me....
|
|
|
|
a500lbgorilla
|
|
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
|
|
How awesome is that!
Teaching the new generation incorrectly makes me so hot.
-'rilla
|
Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
|
|
zenbitz
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
|
|
Gut shot draw on flop by river is 1 - (41/45 * 40/44) = 17.2%. If you are heads up and the other guy doesn't have any of your outs it's 1-(39/43 * 38/42) = 18%.
Throw is some backdoor straights and I think you are close to 20%.
Odds of board pairing assuming all "outs" are live, 2 players : 1-(34/43*33/42) = 38% PLUS chance that turn pairs river = 34/43*3/42 = 5.6%, total ~43.6%.
if you hold an ace (and opponent does not), you flop at least 1 more 1-(45/48* 44/47* 43/46) = 18% of the time.
So, it looks like they just rounded up some.
|
|
|
|
Greedo017
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
|
|
yea, i didn't like check it to the exactness, but just in my head, they're all right in the ballpark, maybe high by 1-2%.
|
|
i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
|
|
vegaas2
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 51
|
|
Ok, as I said, I am not a mathmatician, so its looks as if they are right, just a little bit inflated. Wow, the things you learn as you delve deeper into the game.
|
|
Ram and Jam!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by vegaas2
Ok, as I said, I am not a mathmatician, so its looks as if they are right, just a little bit inflated. Wow, the things you learn as you delve deeper into the game.
|
Not inflated, rounded.
|
|
|
|
nickthefool
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: here
Posts: 338
|
|
If you hold one Ace, the chance of at least one other person at a 10 person table holding one is 74.69% to 2 decimal places. So that one is pretty accurate. I would say they are probably fairly accurate given conditions, such as live outs, how many other players in the hand, etc.
|
|
The poker gods love me really, they are just testing my faith !
|
|
Darby
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 209
|
|
FTR should come out with bogus flash cards to market and sell to unknowing fish....
Such as, you will hit your inside straight about 60% of the time...
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
