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Bottom set vs. suspicious villain line

  
 
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martindcx1e
Old 05-17-2006, 08:18 PM     Post subject: Bottom set vs. suspicious villain line #1 (permalink)  
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should my line be obvious here?

***** Hand History for Game 4293808664 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, May 17, 15:59:46 ET 2006
Table Table 95911 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: dj_adamb ( $14.02 )
Seat 3: gianiny12 ( $15.55 )
Seat 5: R3vo7v3r ( $45.58 )
Seat 6: Asgardi ( $23.65 )
Seat 7: RemixThis ( $19.15 )
Seat 9: MartinDCX1E ( $25.45 )
Seat 8: Bfarrington ( $24 )
Seat 2: SNOB_ ( $2.75 )
Seat 10: scottewan ( $32.10 )
Seat 4: Wigs4PM ( $24.75 )
Bfarrington posts small blind [$0.10].
MartinDCX1E posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to MartinDCX1E [ 4s 4c ]
scottewan calls [$0.25].
dj_adamb folds.
SNOB_ calls [$0.25].
gianiny12 calls [$0.25].
Wigs4PM folds.
R3vo7v3r raises [$1.22].
Asgardi folds.
RemixThis folds.
Bfarrington calls [$1.12].
MartinDCX1E calls [$0.97].
scottewan calls [$0.97].
SNOB_ folds.
gianiny12 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, 4h, 7d ]
Bfarrington checks.
MartinDCX1E checks.
scottewan checks.
R3vo7v3r bets [$1.65].
Bfarrington calls [$1.65].
MartinDCX1E raises [$7].
scottewan folds.
R3vo7v3r folds.
Bfarrington raises [$10.70].
Hero ?
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Rondavu
Old 05-17-2006, 08:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Man up and push. Most likely AK.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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martindcx1e
Old 05-17-2006, 08:41 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Man up and push. Most likely AK.
oh i pushed alright lol. but do you really think AK is the most likely hand here?
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ProZachNation
Old 05-17-2006, 09:18 PM #4 (permalink)  
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At 25Nl I think most of the time you are looking at AK here, or a medium/high pocket pair.

The hands that make most sense to me are AK and and 77, preflop AK and 77 are both not usually raising. I could see both AK and 77 calling behind and looking to raise the turn too.

I think it look most likely like 77 because once you raise he probably thinks he can get most of his money in here instead of on the turn.

I would still reraise all-in here at 25NL your ahead of most donk moves here of people calling preflop with like K7.
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 05-17-2006, 09:32 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Push and pray.
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yorib
Old 05-17-2006, 09:34 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Assuming no reads of any sort (you haven't shown down junk, or been pushed off of hands) I'm betting he has 56s and figures you'll either fold, or, if not, he's got rough odds to try and call and win.
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martindcx1e
Old 05-17-2006, 09:39 PM #7 (permalink)  
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i don't know yall this line screams 77 to me.
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andy-akb
Old 05-17-2006, 09:45 PM #8 (permalink)  
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You cant be laying this hand down. Barring any reads this is a push, with most reads, this is a push, you are going to be ahead more than enough to make this play very profitable.

In a 4way pot I think you should be leading this, the board is fairly dry so slowplaying doesnt hurt much, but I still like to play my sets fast and this is the action I hope for and then I push.

Please tell me you pushed.
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martindcx1e
Old 05-17-2006, 09:50 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Please tell me you pushed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Man up and push. Most likely AK.
oh i pushed alright lol. but do you really think AK is the most likely hand here?
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nutsinho
Old 05-17-2006, 09:52 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 it does scream 77, and at a higher level you might find a laydown
however at this level, opponents are in general not very solid so this could be any two pair combination in my opinion. AK is a longshot. 77 is the most likely hand by far, but it is still slightly +EV to get it all in here most likely
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martindcx1e
Old 05-17-2006, 09:55 PM #11 (permalink)  
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ok so what is villain's range here? most likely not anything capable of hitting 2 pair. he probably doesn't have middle or bottom pair. so that leaves us with TP, KK, 77, or a draw. maybe i haven't played long enough but i def. haven't seen many people play a draw like this. pretty much every time i've seen somebody flat call and then re-raise on the same street it's been the nuts or extremely close to it. thoughts?
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jackvance
Old 05-17-2006, 09:58 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 I agree with ya here Martin. Not saying I would lay it down, but I'm expecting to go bust here.. set under set is about the only thing I am willing to go bust on without beating myself up over it.
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Renton
Old 05-17-2006, 10:03 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 call and get all in on turn
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martindcx1e
Old 05-17-2006, 10:04 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
call and get all in on turn
why wait? i think it's obvious we both like our hands enough to not give them up at any point.
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andy-akb
Old 05-17-2006, 10:07 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
ok so what is villain's range here?
With no read its very hard to put villain on a range. At $25NL on party Ive seen 70/60s all the way to 7/1s so it really makes a big difference as to who the villain is and what you have observed.
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renegaderob1
Old 05-18-2006, 12:23 AM #16 (permalink)  
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I also think push. I know it screams 77, and I think 45% of the time it IS 77, but at this level he could also have AA, AK, 56, K7/4s, KQ or KJ (unlikely, but still a possibility). This is slightly +EV which makes it a pushable edge for me
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nutsinho
Old 05-18-2006, 12:56 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by renegaderob1
I also think push. I know it screams 77, and I think 45% of the time it IS 77, but at this level he could also have AA, AK, 56, K7/4s, KQ or KJ (unlikely, but still a possibility). This is slightly +EV which makes it a pushable edge for me
my thoughts exacttly
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martindcx1e
Old 05-18-2006, 02:46 AM #18 (permalink)  
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i forgot about AA - i like push a little better now. still though doesn't it raise red flags like crazy when you see a player flat call and re-raise on the same street? it always scares the crap out of me.
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Tony
Old 05-18-2006, 03:05 AM #19 (permalink)  

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I've sat with Bfarrington a few times. I have about 200 hands on him in PT and have him pegged as semi-loose passive agressive. I have seen him be passive preflop with big pairs, JJ+ and bet hard with overpairs. I don't think his line is necessarily 77, but it could be. I think there is a good possibility that he has AA here.

So far, at PP 25NL a majority of my money has come from set farming. As far as I am concernced at this level it's an insta-push. If he has 77 or KK, reload. Nothing you can do about that at this level.

Tony
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martindcx1e
Old 05-18-2006, 04:08 AM #20 (permalink)  
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does noone else agree that the flat call/re-raise on the same street line should be a huge warning every single time?
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 05-18-2006, 05:32 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
does noone else agree that the flat call/re-raise on the same street line should be a huge warning every single time?
At $25NL, generally, yes.
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
 
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martindcx1e
Old 05-18-2006, 05:46 AM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
does noone else agree that the flat call/re-raise on the same street line should be a huge warning every single time?
At $25NL, generally, yes.
so do you fold here?
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Fnord
Old 05-18-2006, 06:49 AM #23 (permalink)  
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Looks like 7s, but felting a set in a raised pot can never be a big mistake 100ish deep.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Turska
Old 05-18-2006, 06:57 AM     Post subject: At #24 (permalink)  
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I would never fold this at 25NL. Only way im folding set at
25NL (sometimes) is when obvious fl/str8 draw completes
on river.

I think there 50% probability for overpair, twopair or just donk
play. So u have odds to go for it.
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Lukie
Old 05-18-2006, 07:25 AM #25 (permalink)  
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 Just find a way to get it in, while getting as much value out of AK/AA type hands as you can. You're not laying down bottom set at 100bb deep when decent money went in preflop.

Sorry you got cold-decked.
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Lukie
Old 05-18-2006, 07:27 AM #26 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Looks like 7s, but felting a set in a raised pot can never be a big mistake 100ish deep.
haha, imagine you are hero in this hand.

villain is fearfact.

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johnny_fish
Old 05-18-2006, 04:06 PM #27 (permalink)  
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You're getting close to 2:1 effective odds. You can't fold getting 2:1 at 25NL when there's just 1 hand you're scared of.

edit: You might want to slowplay this flop and get a little more value of donkish Kx/trash (c/r turn ai).
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