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Bluffin the nit

  
 
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Im_new
Old 02-24-2009, 03:34 PM     Post subject: Bluffin the nit #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 7/3, so we know what he has very often here. BB was kind of a nit too, thats why i opted not to three bet, figuring he'd fold.
Can I push the nit off of an overpair enough?

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CO ($2.65)
Button ($46)
Hero (SB) ($26.85)
BB ($14.05)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($27.25)
MP1 ($4.65)
MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($53.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $1, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3) 3, 9, 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 checks

Turn: ($3) 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.90, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1.90

River: ($6.80) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.20, MP2 calls $3.20

Total pot: $13.20 | Rake: $0.60
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d0zer
Old 02-24-2009, 03:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 why would the nit check the flop with an overpair?
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Im_new
Old 02-24-2009, 04:10 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
why would the nit check the flop with an overpair?
that's exactly why I'm confused here. His range is so obsure to me after he checks the flop. I think that the turn bet is okay, but the river may be a mistake because he isn't calling with much that I beat, maybe an underpair (?). Though, if he has an underpair, the river bet should push them out. I have the Ad, so that robs him of the nut FD or nut flush.

What all is in his range after the flop? Should I rightfully put AT in there?
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mxiu
Old 02-24-2009, 04:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Flop and turn were fine, I don`t like betting the river when the nit already stated he likes his hand.
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Im_new
Old 02-24-2009, 04:30 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mxiu
Flop and turn were fine, I don`t like betting the river when the nit already stated he likes his hand.
yeah, agreed.
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badgers
Old 02-24-2009, 05:22 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mxiu
Flop and turn were fine, I don`t like betting the river when the nit already stated he likes his hand.
yep also it's quite easy to put you on a missed D draw and he's getting 3:1 so it's unlikely he's going to fold anything really on the river.
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Parasurama
Old 02-24-2009, 08:53 PM     Post subject: Re: Bluffin the nit #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Im_new
Can I push the nit off of an overpair enough?
Not when you're betting these small amounts
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mixchange
Old 02-24-2009, 10:47 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I don't like betting turn on such a drawy board. BB still to act as he standard checked to raiser on flop who checked behind.
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 12:05 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I really hate calling preflop with AK. Calling will put you in alot of spots where you lose alot of money and raising preflop will let you know where your at.

For your argument that you think he would fold preflop, winning 1$ with AK at NL25 means your running over expectation in the long run.
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badgers
Old 02-25-2009, 12:09 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
I really hate calling preflop with AK. Calling will put you in alot of spots where you lose alot of money and raising preflop will let you know where your at.

For your argument that you think he would fold preflop, winning 1$ with AK at NL25 means your running over expectation in the long run.
I would like to quote your avatar at this point...

wtf?

Dude runs at 7/3, we have equity against his raising range but it's pretty hard to play this oop once we 3bet..... I much prefer calling here, hell we can c/r some flops with AK here because we're likely to have equity and fold equity on a lot of flops that we miss.
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mixchange
Old 02-25-2009, 12:25 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Flatting AK here doesn't put us in many spots to lose a lot (villain cbets 90% and 1/3 of the time we hit), while it can put a tight player into a tough spot with AJ/AQ/KQ. 3betting puts you in a much bigger spot to lose $$ as we are cbetting OOP vs. a tight player who is likely to hold a pair and we miss 2/3.

As played you can c/f turn



remember when we flat also we represent a wider range than whan we 3bet, therefore there are lots of flops where even OOP we can flat and own MP. That is a big reason I also prefer flatting.
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 12:32 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
I really hate calling preflop with AK. Calling will put you in alot of spots where you lose alot of money and raising preflop will let you know where your at.

For your argument that you think he would fold preflop, winning 1$ with AK at NL25 means your running over expectation in the long run.
I would like to quote your avatar at this point...

wtf?

Dude runs at 7/3, we have equity against his raising range but it's pretty hard to play this oop once we 3bet..... I much prefer calling here, hell we can c/r some flops with AK here because we're likely to have equity and fold equity on a lot of flops that we miss.
A guy raising TT+AK, calling a 3bet with TT-QQ, AK and 4betting KK+ is gonna be a hell of alot easier to play vs postflop. You can check back A/K high boards and cbet dry boards for example. He is gonna play his cards face up and we have the initiative.

As i said calling preflop will widen villains range and put you in alot of though spots, many where you will lose money just as OP experienced.
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Im_new
Old 02-25-2009, 12:35 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
I really hate calling preflop with AK. Calling will put you in alot of spots where you lose alot of money and raising preflop will let you know where your at.

For your argument that you think he would fold preflop, winning 1$ with AK at NL25 means your running over expectation in the long run.
I would like to quote your avatar at this point...

wtf?

Dude runs at 7/3, we have equity against his raising range but it's pretty hard to play this oop once we 3bet..... I much prefer calling here, hell we can c/r some flops with AK here because we're likely to have equity and fold equity on a lot of flops that we miss.
A guy raising TT+AK, calling a 3bet with TT-QQ, AK and 4betting KK+ is gonna be a hell of alot easier to play vs postflop. You can check back A/K high boards and cbet dry boards for example. He is gonna play his cards face up and we have the initiative.

As i said calling preflop will widen villains range and put you in alot of though spots, many where you will lose money just as OP experienced.


I never said that I lost money.

He turned over AK. After seeing that, I was forced to look at this hand a bit differently.
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 12:39 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Well, if you are gonna be result orientated. He was holding AK and you would most likely take this pot down with a 3bet and a cbet.

But were not, and when he is calling that river you will lose 90% of the time
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mixchange
Old 02-25-2009, 12:40 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
I really hate calling preflop with AK. Calling will put you in alot of spots where you lose alot of money and raising preflop will let you know where your at.

For your argument that you think he would fold preflop, winning 1$ with AK at NL25 means your running over expectation in the long run.
I would like to quote your avatar at this point...

wtf?

Dude runs at 7/3, we have equity against his raising range but it's pretty hard to play this oop once we 3bet..... I much prefer calling here, hell we can c/r some flops with AK here because we're likely to have equity and fold equity on a lot of flops that we miss.
A guy raising TT+AK, calling a 3bet with TT-QQ, AK and 4betting KK+ is gonna be a hell of alot easier to play vs postflop. You can check back A/K high boards and cbet dry boards for example. He is gonna play his cards face up and we have the initiative.

As i said calling preflop will widen villains range and put you in alot of though spots, many where you will lose money just as OP experienced.
What? Villain's range is static when we flat, our range is wider.
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Im_new
Old 02-25-2009, 12:44 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Well, if you are gonna be result orientated. He was holding AK and you would most likely take this pot down with a 3bet and a cbet.

But were not, and when he is calling that river you will lose 90% of the time
Not entirely sure what you saying here. Are you just saying that the river bet is bad? If so, gotcha-- I definitely agree.
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badgers
Old 02-25-2009, 01:05 AM #17 (permalink)  
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lots of these supernits are just calling the 3bet with KK because they are scared of AA, and also call AA for deception. This almost inadvertently balances their ranges and makes them a lot harder to play against oop in 3bet pots. We're forced to either c/f the majority of flops, or double barrel into an extremely strong range (since TT+ as an overpair is not likely to fold to one bet...) This does not sound like a good plan.
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 01:07 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Yeah, sorry. I didn't mean that it would be wider. It would still be TT+AK, but wider than his 3bet calling range.

Anyways, im not saying that calling is bad. Just that i hate doing it, i almost never do it. I like easy Decisions.

Lets say his range is TT+AK. We call preflop.

1st scenario: The board is dry
Our best option is to checkfold. The next best option is to checkcall. Bluffing is terrible on the flop. Either way we lose money

2nd scenario: The board comes A or K high.
There is many options now, but most likely
AA and KK is gonna get more then one street of value from us
AK is gonna split the pot vs us
Were gonna get one max two streets of value from TT-QQ

Now if we 3bet preflop.
We lose money to a 4bet, but find out we had the worst hand.
Were gonna check A/K high flop and get 2 streets of value(sometimes one, sometimes split)
Were gonna cbet a dry board and take it down most of the time.

Note that the streets of value is gonna be bigger when we 3bet
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 01:18 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Im_new
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Well, if you are gonna be result orientated. He was holding AK and you would most likely take this pot down with a 3bet and a cbet.

But were not, and when he is calling that river you will lose 90% of the time
Not entirely sure what you saying here. Are you just saying that the river bet is bad? If so, gotcha-- I definitely agree.
The only hand i can put him on by the river is AK and if you only made it a bit bigger i think he would have folded. He really doesn't have a pair here enough to make it wrong for you to bluff him. I just though you lost the pot every time he called. Looking back it may have looked like you were drawing, so it makes perfect sense that you split the pot here.
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badgers
Old 02-25-2009, 01:22 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Yeah, sorry. I didn't mean that it would be wider. It would still be TT+AK, but wider than his 3bet calling range.

Anyways, im not saying that calling is bad. Just that i hate doing it, i almost never do it. I like easy Decisions.

Lets say his range is TT+AK. We call preflop.

1st scenario: The board is dry
Our best option is to checkfold. The next best option is to checkcall. Bluffing is terrible on the flop. Either way we lose money

2nd scenario: The board comes A or K high.
There is many options now, but most likely
AA and KK is gonna get more then one street of value from us
AK is gonna split the pot vs us
Were gonna get one max two streets of value from TT-QQ

Now if we 3bet preflop.
We lose money to a 4bet, but find out we had the worst hand.
Were gonna check A/K high flop and get 2 streets of value(sometimes one, sometimes split)
Were gonna cbet a dry board and take it down most of the time.

Note that the streets of value is gonna be bigger when we 3bet
ugh I disagree with most of this and it's making me not go to bed :s

1st scenario - now our range is wider and there is a lot more we can do. Our options include c/r, c/c flop (with equity) with the intention of c/raising turns. You could also donk certain textures but I don't think that's likely to be profitable a lot in this case. I'm just making examples.

2nd scenario - Agree

3rd

to a 4bet - agree we lose money

when he calls the 3bet and we hit - we're going to struggle to get one decent street of value here. 2 small bets could perhaps get more value, but rather than turning villains range face up (which it already is because lol3% of hands) it is now our hand that is face up. We will also get stacked by AA/KK occasionally.

cbetting a dry board will take it down most of the time? Reallllly? If we have AK there are 9 combos left of AK, 6 each of TT-QQ and 3 each of KK/AA. On a lot of boards, that leaves 24 combos that are calling and 9 folding which isn't going to be profitable unless we bet mega small at which point AK is going to start playing back.....
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 01:43 AM #21 (permalink)  
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@badgers

1st scenario:
Given what we know about villain, that he doesn't have a good understanding about poker. I think its really bad to c/r flop or turns on dry boards.

3bet scenario:
Again given what we know about villain. My experience with these guys is that checking back flop is gonna confuse them. Now betting the turn you would get a call and if you size your bet right on the river your gonna see a call more then you think. Your gonna know your only worth of 2 streets of value so your not gonna stack off vs KK/AA plus he almost certainly never calls with it preflop.

@ Dry boards:
Your cbet size in 3bet pots should be half pot. That means your villain needs to be folding only 33% of the time. You cant say that AA/KK is in his calling range preflop. Plus we got equity if he calls
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badgers
Old 02-25-2009, 02:06 AM #22 (permalink)  
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You don't think the nit is going to b/f AK/TT/JJ maybe even QQ on a load of dry boards? We don't have to do it that frequently to make calling pretty profitable, also it is the perfect hand to have in our range to balance with the times we have a set since it has the most equity vs his calling range on most flops.

I am pretty confident in my ability to outplay a retarded nitfish on a narrow range with a hand that is ahead of his range, without the need to 3bet preflop, drastically narrow our own range and generally put us in a bit of a shitty spot (you must admit, even if the cbet in a 3bet pot is +EV it's marginal...)
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 02:09 AM #23 (permalink)  
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I think your forgetting how strong our hand looks. He is gonna 4bet KK/AA. He is gonna call a cbet with TT-QQ, and give us some equity to hit. Almost always gonna fold AK and sometimes TT, rarely JJ-QQ.

There is almost no scenario you shouldn't cbet in a 3bet pot micro-lowstakes unless you hit the board.

anyways im off to bed, check in later
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ZwiFT
Old 02-25-2009, 02:23 AM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
You don't think the nit is going to b/f AK/TT/JJ maybe even QQ on a load of dry boards? We don't have to do it that frequently to make calling pretty profitable, also it is the perfect hand to have in our range to balance with the times we have a set since it has the most equity vs his calling range on most flops.

I am pretty confident in my ability to outplay a retarded nitfish on a narrow range with a hand that is ahead of his range, without the need to 3bet preflop, drastically narrow our own range and generally put us in a bit of a shitty spot (you must admit, even if the cbet in a 3bet pot is +EV it's marginal...)
I think calling is good, but i believe 3betting is better. Also i don't see the need to balance at this limit, vs this guy to get payed of when we hit a set. And i disagree with you that we get into a shitty spot when we 3bet because we got all the scenarios figured out already. Hell the main reason i 3bet is to find out if my hand is good here.
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