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to bluff or not to bluff 600NL

  
 
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Deanglow
Old 10-31-2009, 02:48 PM     Post subject: to bluff or not to bluff 600NL #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is an ok reg running 15/12 with 5% 3bet. He tanked for a while before betting the turn and even longer when calling. Shove or no?

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saw flop

UTG+1 ($1290)
MP1 ($619.05)
MP2 ($600)
CO ($258.75)
Hero (Button) ($1114)
SB ($400)
BB ($600)
UTG ($105.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 9
3 folds, MP2 bets $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $18, 2 folds

Flop: ($45) 8, 7, A (2 players)
MP2 bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($93) 9 (2 players)
MP2 bets $60, Hero raises to $156, MP2 calls $96

River: ($405) Q (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero has a pot bet left
 
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Pelion
Old 10-31-2009, 03:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Whats your stats/image and gameflow?

Its possible hes tanking extra long to induce a bluff. I doubt many people call the raise with TP+ OOP and then fold to a mere pot sized bet when no real scarecard comes.
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Deanglow
Old 10-31-2009, 08:24 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 He should view me as pretty damn tight and not really bluffing here much.
 
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daven
Old 10-31-2009, 09:24 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 my instinct is to check behind cos i'm a nit.

But... your line looks strong and if he c-folds the river >1/2 it's worth bluffing. You have showdown value against a tiny part of his range (9T/66).

a typical open range for a 15-12 villain here is some scs/Axs/broadways/pairs and he's going to be c-betting this flop with about all of that range.

Given fullstacks in the blinds his perception of your preflop calling range is going to be biased towards 22-JJ/AJs+/AQ+ and a few scs I guess?

His flop c-bet sizing differs from what I am used to, any reads etc? does he typically cbet 1/2 pot? He's barrelling stronger aces, 66-TT, and any luckboxed TJ (unlikely).

On the turn your raise credibly reps sets and that's about it, cos he won't be expecting you to call too many gutshots. Whether the river bluff is good depends entirely on hit turn bet-call range, and what part of this range is folding when he knows he needs to be good 1/3 of the time. I dunno, it doesn't feel as though you get enough fold equity for this to be a good spot to bluff - just cos his call of the turn bet affects his range and his headspace so much.
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badgers
Old 11-01-2009, 09:24 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I don't think I like to bet on this river. There's still a lot of nut hands in his range, possibly even AQ as well as sets/JT. I think all he folds is AK/AJ and he may fold them on the turn if your image is that nitty.
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