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bluff catch or zomgfold?

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09-05-2009, 12:35 PM Post subject: bluff catch or zomgfold?

#1 (permalink)

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Villain is 17/14/3, steals from SB 41%, cbet flop 64%, Cbet turn 50%, river sample too small. 2 hands with him today, one where he vbet 3 streets with a flopped flush and I called down with an overpair, another he cbet TT from EP on Q25 rainbow, then bet A turn and checked a blank river, I showed A4s.

Do I call the river? T9 and HH draws missed, but QT hit and there are lots of 2pair/sets in his range.

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($227.85)
MP2 ($153)
MP3 ($245.80)
CO ($205.50)
Button ($237)
SB ($343)
Hero (BB) ($377.95)
UTG ($346.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, 9

7 folds, SB bets $5, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12) J

, 8

, A

(2 players)
SB bets $8, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($28) 6

(2 players)
SB bets $18, Hero calls $18

River: ($64) K

(2 players)
SB bets $42, Hero ?

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darkwing

09-05-2009, 02:10 PM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2009

Posts: 2

Nope, can't call river. You are crushed here. Fold >> Raise >> Call. If you are super nitty, a raise on the river might be best

BankItDrew

09-07-2009, 04:15 AM

#3 (permalink)

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No way you should be calling river. Line until then is fine... there are other options but I think it's probably results oriented.

Check out the bet sizing: 2/3 2/3 2/3

After you called turn, it looks like you'd be willing to call river too.

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settecba

09-07-2009, 12:19 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

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Posts: 326

Board: Jh 8h As 6d Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.343% 31.34% 00.00% 21 0.00 { Ad9h }
Hand 1: 68.657% 68.66% 00.00% 46 0.00 { AA, JJ, 88, 66, AJs+, KhQh, QTs-Q9s, T9s, 9h7h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h4h, 5h4h, AJo+, QTo, T9o }

You cant call river IMO.

wakeup

09-07-2009, 12:35 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2008

Location: Oz

Posts: 117

if u call with a9 on the turn and fold river tho, ur pretty much folding all ur turn calling range on the river, the rest u raise the turn no?

badgers

09-07-2009, 12:37 PM

#6 (permalink)

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but we only need 28.5% equity to call...

I don't really agree with your range though and I think this is a fold but your post is wtf.

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09-07-2009, 03:18 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

is this bet sizing meaningful in some way?

BankItDrew

09-07-2009, 06:20 PM

#8 (permalink)

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It just feels like villain is convinced you will call another 2/3 bet on the river because you did on the flop and turn. Here's the most important part of this hand imo:

Your range as perceived by villain is probably missed draws, and an ace. If I knew you had this range, I wouldn't be betting so much, I could get a fold from a smaller bet. 2/3 looks like he wants an ace to call.

09-08-2009, 05:05 AM

#9 (permalink)

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so if Ax can't call here, doesn't it look like he wants A9 to FOLD?

BankItDrew

09-08-2009, 07:40 AM

#10 (permalink)

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I think that's too many levels to be honest.

09-08-2009, 02:17 PM

#11 (permalink)

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all right new question;
i called and he showed KThh.
was his play good? or bad?

BankItDrew

09-08-2009, 06:10 PM

#12 (permalink)

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His play was good in the sense that he found a player not willing to call this line with A9.

It's spewy imo because I don't think he gets a fold often enough. He doesn't even have history on you to think that this play is good vs you.

badgers

09-08-2009, 11:09 PM

#13 (permalink)

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I think his play may be spewy, but only as spewy as bluffing with something like T9 since villain has correctly worked out KT has no SD value here.

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oskar

09-09-2009, 02:41 AM

#14 (permalink)

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I'd be tempted to call because of the bet sizing. From what you said he looks pretty smart... his SB steal prolly goes down significantly once you start to 3b light.
I'm feeling that his vbet sizing would be half pot or less just because Ax is a lot of your range here.
On the other hand when a reg repps a really thin range he usually has something in that range.

I guess it comes down to Aces up+ and flushdraws. I assume he's opening almost any 2 suited, so that would make it a call, and then there's the sizing. I think you can take off a couple of nut combos just because he would bet less with them... unless you have reads that he will vbet big I guess.
I call and make a note if he has a nut hand that he's vbetting too big when there's not much of a calling range. - 'repps blufs wif river vbet' or sumthin.

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bluff catch or zomgfold?

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