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AQs Paired flop - TPGK + Flush draw faces massive overbet

  
 
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Pelion
Old 06-18-2006, 01:06 PM     Post subject: AQs Paired flop - TPGK + Flush draw faces massive overbet #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 24/5 after 21 hands. Trips are unlikely here so wtf does he have and what do I do about it?



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($50)
MP3 ($78.49)
CO ($8.75)
Button ($63.90)
SB ($80.15)
BB ($68.42)
UTG ($98.75)
Hero ($50)
MP1 ($108.64)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 calls $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, SB (poster) calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($14) A, 3, 3 (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets $8, Hero calls $8, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($30) 9 (2 players)
BB calls $58.42 (All-In), Hero ???
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Ravageur
Old 06-18-2006, 01:20 PM #2 (permalink)  
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To such a massive overbet, I lay this down reluctantly. With that unreal amount of callers, it's highly likely someone is holding a 3. And in that case you're dead to 9 outs on the river and you're definitely not getting odds.
It does seem ridiculous that someone would play a 3 like this...but I've seen crazier things. In a some odd fish's mind he's greedily rubbing his hands together thinking you have an ace and can't get away from it.

Sidenote : If that many people are regularly calling your raises, I'd start raising it 5 or 6x BB. I can't envision winning many 7-way pots (Not saying you did anything wrong, but damn...that is one tiiiiiight table).
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Pelion
Old 06-18-2006, 01:34 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ravageur
If that many people are regularly calling your raises, I'd start raising it 5 or 6x BB. I can't envision winning many 7-way pots (Not saying you did anything wrong, but damn...that is one loose? table).
This was the first time one of my raises got more than 1 or 2 callers.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Miffed22001
Old 06-18-2006, 04:02 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 i want to call here, it doesnt make sense.
Lay it down however i think.
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Renton
Old 06-18-2006, 04:17 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 i think this is an somewhat easy fold because of the number of players he bet into on the flop.
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Pelion
Old 06-18-2006, 11:21 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Ok. What do you think he has though?

Also do you like the flop call?
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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zenbitz
Old 06-19-2006, 06:28 PM #7 (permalink)  
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BB has a 3 here I think. Maybe even A3. Possibly a very aggressive A9, since you are the one guy who DOESN'T have a 3.

If it was K33 then I could see a bluff, but not with the A out.

Raising the flop here is not horrible, especailly if you are not willing to call down with TPGK.

He would have to have a huge read on you to bluff thinking you will lay down an A.
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cardsman1992
Old 06-19-2006, 06:34 PM #8 (permalink)  
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He has 99 and your flush is dead. Want to take a chance on a 2 outer? I would have to fold this.....

Either that or a stone cold bluff, PP that missed and doesn't believe you have an A. I don't have the balls to pick it off, though...
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jackvance
Old 06-19-2006, 06:48 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 Easy fold. Be thankful he didn't make you waste more money on a second-best hand.
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Pelion
Old 06-20-2006, 10:06 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Just for the results orientated I called since his play made no sense to me at all and usually when something doesnt make sense to me its a bluff or something i need to make a note of.

He flipped AK and I rivered the flush.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Miffed22001
Old 06-20-2006, 11:50 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Just for the results orientated I called since his play made no sense to me at all and usually when something doesnt make sense to me its a bluff or something i need to make a note of.

He flipped AK and I rivered the flush.
i can see why you called

Make that note! :P
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 06-20-2006, 05:51 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Not to be results oriented(or not)....

Flop:I think a raise or fold is the move-just calling really doesn't tell a whole lot.If your FD was to the flop then a call is better.

Turn:looks ok.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 06-20-2006, 07:51 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 overbet=strength
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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Miffed22001
Old 06-20-2006, 08:57 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
overbet=strength
he had tptk, we call that strength?
Why bet all in oop after the flop action, it looks more like protection with fold equity than anything monstorish
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