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Analysis help sought!

  
 
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Phill_555
Old 09-16-2006, 07:42 AM     Post subject: Analysis help sought! #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7
Phill_555
Hi all, I wonder if you could offer some help with the following hand:

(6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:16:28 ET - 2006/09/16
Seat 1: webly ($41.20)
Seat 2: Phill_555 ($114.10)
Seat 3: Piotor_pb ($87.50)
Seat 4: king of love ($42.50)
Seat 5: 1North40 ($223.65), is sitting out
Seat 6: mewinyoulose ($145.70)
mewinyoulose posts the small blind of $0.50
webly posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Phill_555 [Js Jc]
Phill_555 raises to $3.50
Piotor_pb calls $3.50
king of love folds
mewinyoulose folds
king of love stands up
webly folds
*** FLOP *** [8s 5s 7s]
Phill_555 bets $7
Piotor_pb raises to $29.50
Phill_555 has 15 seconds left to act
Piotor_pb: KK
Phill_555 is sitting out
Phill_555 has timed out
Phill_555 folds
Uncalled bet of $22.50 returned to Piotor_pb
Piotor_pb mucks
Piotor_pb wins the pot ($21.40)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $22.50 | Rake $1.10
Board: [8s 5s 7s]


Some background info i try to play a LAGG style but still learning and moving away from TAG. Im a winning player with over 60k hands under my belt.

Only had 20 hands on the opponent but he was running at 27/11 and didnt notice any over-agressive tendancies.

Now i put him on a set so folded but I ran it through an odds site and even if he had a set i was still about 35% to win IF my FD or set is good. Should i have pushed? I do find myself folding overpairs to flops like this to seemingly decent opponents.

Any thoughts greatly appreciated!
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Drewbie
Old 09-16-2006, 12:16 PM #2 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 88
Drewbie
Good laydown, this used to be one of my weaknesses not being able to lay down the overpair.
and good flop bet, it saved you some money.
I dont like Jack high flushes with 4 on the board, there is a good chance you are beat.
If he had KK, I am sure one of them was the Ks, in which case you are drawing nearly dead.
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bode
Old 09-16-2006, 01:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 good laydown.
Quote:
eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
 
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martindcx1e
Old 09-16-2006, 10:05 PM #4 (permalink)  
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martindcx1e
why push if you might have a 35% chance to win?

EDIT: Why does everyone seem to want to abandon ole TAG?
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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BigPalms123
Old 09-17-2006, 01:35 AM #5 (permalink)  

Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9
BigPalms123
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bode-ist
good laydown.
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Chris4tw
Old 09-17-2006, 05:19 AM #6 (permalink)  

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Maybe because of the thrill being a LAG player brings. The highs of bluffing people off hands and winning with strange hole cards. With TAG, you for the most part play the same type of cards and such. At low limits, being a TAG will make you a good amount of money though, and it allows you to move up in stakes with less buyins than if you were a LAG player as there isn't as dramatic swings in your bankroll.
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TerryToma
Old 09-17-2006, 05:27 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
why push if you might have a 35% chance to win?
Oldest TerryBlog (the good ole days): http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-40661.htm

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Phill_555
Old 09-18-2006, 05:22 PM #8 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7
Phill_555
Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryToma
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
why push if you might have a 35% chance to win?
Well because he still has some Fold Equity and there is also a certain amount of chance he is bluffing or I am ahead! I know that is wishful thinking but I see so many crazy plays each day at .50/1 im usually in there unless i have previous hands on a player and he's proved to be decent.
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