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AKs with with nutflushdraw.

  
 
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Dislexsik
Old 10-03-2006, 01:03 AM     Post subject: AKs with with nutflushdraw. #1 (permalink)  
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No reads villain, i think i played this poorly.Not sure...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($34.17)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($80.30)
MP2 ($39.53)
MP3 ($88.85)
CO ($38.02)
Button ($44.50)
Hero ($48.95)
BB ($72.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises to $3.75, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $3.50, CO folds.

Flop: ($10.50) 5, 6, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $8, MP3 raises to $16, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($42.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $20, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $62.50
 
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vegascoop
Old 10-03-2006, 01:25 AM #2 (permalink)  
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This is a really strong draw because of the fact that you have two overs.

With a draw like this, I think that unless it's a NIT that you think has a set almost always, you'd want to 3-bet / push the flop. You're a favorite over KQ, and any other draws, but don't want to get pushed off your hand on the turn.

As played on flop, I think a block bet is in order on the turn. Maybe 16 or so. It seems villains always bet here when checked to so really hard to fold. It's close. I've put myself in this bad spot a lot.
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Miffed22001
Old 10-03-2006, 02:38 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 i3bet and call a push.
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Halv
Old 10-03-2006, 03:43 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegascoop
This is a really strong draw because of the fact that you have two overs.

With a draw like this, I think that unless it's a NIT that you think has a set almost always, you'd want to 3-bet / push the flop. You're a favorite over KQ, and any other draws, but don't want to get pushed off your hand on the turn.
In fact I think we are ever so slightly behind KQ, because in that case our king isn't live. Same goes for AQ, then our A isn't live. In fact we are only really ahead of QJ or worse. (If we had a combo draw we would be ahead of top pair/overpairs though)

What we do have is a lot of fold equity against some of the hands that have us beat, and a probable near coinflip situation if we are called, which is why I think we should play this hard on the flop. I 3-bet big, and if villain pushes the pot odds will justify a call (yay for artificial odds :P).

As played, I call turn. He doesn't have to call a river bet very often if we hit to make the call correct on implied odds.

Long edit follows:
checking stack sizes, we will have 9.20 behind if we call turn. Now, there is no way in hell villain will fold anything at all on the river for 9.20 in a 100$ pot. So our odds are basically 20/100.9 = 19.8%.

We have 9 outs to the flush draw, 3 K outs and 3 A outs, but some of these are tainted. If he sucks and has QJ or lower we have our full 15 outs, if he has KQ or AQ we have 12 outs (the flush + either the K or the A outs), if he has a set we have 7 outs (the 6h/8h will fill him up), if he has 65 we have 8 outs.

So on the whole, lets say we have 10 outs(is this reasonable versus an unknown villain with this action?). That gives us a 21% chance to hit on the river, giving us slightly favorable odds. 9 outs gives us 19.6% for a very slight underdog status, while the worst case of 7 outs gives us 15.2%. The tiny reverse implied odds should he hit two pair with a K or A also needs to be considered, as does the times he has air or a worse draw, but someone else is going to have to calculate those.("Holy mackerel! To the Mathcave!" )

Bottom line, when the odds are close it is a bigger mistake to make a bad fold in a big pot than it is to make a bad call.

But let's face it, it would absolutely SUCK to check fold river for 9$ if we miss, so we'll probably have to add in a river call the times he doesn't check behind his TP, but let's treat that one as metagame expense .

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BankItDrew
Old 10-03-2006, 05:53 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
i3bet and call a push.
Then you would be getting it all in with the worst of it. If you could come up with a couple of reasons to, I'd love to hear them.

I suggest calling and leading the turn. Another raise from villain would have to turn you into a calling station, hoping to get lucky. The other problem with this line however, is that it also bloats the pot when behind. By leading, you could get a fold from <KQ.
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vegascoop
Old 10-03-2006, 06:16 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvSame
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegascoop
This is a really strong draw because of the fact that you have two overs.

With a draw like this, I think that unless it's a NIT that you think has a set almost always, you'd want to 3-bet / push the flop. You're a favorite over KQ, and any other draws, but don't want to get pushed off your hand on the turn.
In fact I think we are ever so slightly behind KQ, because in that case our king isn't live. Same goes for AQ, then our A isn't live. In fact we are only really ahead of QJ or worse. (If we had a combo draw we would be ahead of top pair/overpairs though)
Yeah, my bad on being favorite over KQ. I actually poker stove'd QJ, which I doubt he has.

I would somewhat discount AQ limping PF, I know some do it.

Looking at it again, smells like a poket pair. Without a read this seems like a trick question or maybe its just long day.
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Miffed22001
Old 10-03-2006, 04:47 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
i3bet and call a push.
Then you would be getting it all in with the worst of it. If you could come up with a couple of reasons to, I'd love to hear them.

I suggest calling and leading the turn. Another raise from villain would have to turn you into a calling station, hoping to get lucky. The other problem with this line however, is that it also bloats the pot when behind. By leading, you could get a fold from <KQ.
1. He isnt folding tp to a call/lead line, opp simply wont understand that and we need to bluff teh river to win the pot if we dont hit. That also wont happen so we need to do something now. If he has a set then GAMBooL!
If he has a flush draw then bam, GAMBooL with the best of it.
2. Long term if we stack off here hes making some huge losses vs our potential range. Pushing tells him we like our hand, and if he sees us stacking off with AK here he'll for sure call when we have AA or a monster and go busto.
3. Stop being so damn passive. The game rewards aggression in the right places.
Call/leading or calling looks so much like you missed its unreal
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BankItDrew
Old 10-03-2006, 05:52 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 So push everytime we have an overpair facing a raise on the flop? Seems too easy to stack off against better hands, like a set or two pair. If I knew that villain would push all in with a big overpair everytime I flopped two pair or a set, I'd call preflop with almost any hand.
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Miffed22001
Old 10-04-2006, 12:54 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
So push everytime we have an overpair facing a raise on the flop? Seems too easy to stack off against better hands, like a set or two pair. If I knew that villain would push all in with a big overpair everytime I flopped two pair or a set, I'd call preflop with almost any hand.
No i said dont play it like a passive and declare your hand to everyone and anyone. You either want to gambOOl or push thsi guy off his hand.
If we play it passivly we are likely to see a big turn bet that we cant really call and expect to get paid off with.
IMO folding is better than calling the raise and leading the turn.
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BankItDrew
Old 10-04-2006, 01:06 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I agree with your point regarding tipping your hand. AA doesn't call each remaining street. Either end it or push it, right?


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Miffed22001
Old 10-04-2006, 01:14 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I agree with your point regarding tipping your hand. AA doesn't call each remaining street. Either end it or push it, right?
I agree that going busto with the nut flush draw vs two pair/set isnt good here. But we also need to push opp off tp if possible, which is why i three bet. Ofc if this guy is the biggest calling station ever then passive chasing is probably ok anyway becuase he'll pay us if we hit.
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homeboy604
Old 10-04-2006, 11:52 AM #12 (permalink)  
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much in this hand depends on whether you think villian will fold to a re raise all in on the flop with KQ/AQ?
if you think he will then you should push. I think you're up against a set here like 40% of the time, so it might be ev+++ to push here.
tough decision.
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