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jmontis
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07-13-2005, 06:46 PM
Post subject: AKs hand, big decision
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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25 NL
UTG limped, table folds
Hero:   on the button, raise to $1
SB calls, UTG calls
flop:   
SB bets $2, UTG raises $5, hero ??
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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ALL IN, BABY
What size of stacks are we talking about?
Mr. Limp-Call could have a baby set but you should easily have 12 live outs, maybe more if he only has a pair. If he only has a pair you're a favorite and this is an obvious push situation. If he has two pair or a set you're somewhere between 33% and 43% to win the hand.
hmmmmm.
On further consideration I think the stack sizes matter greatly here. There's also a solid argument for flat-calling or putting out a smaller re-raise (like another $5) to see how he reacts.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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well, I pushed, and he said "hmm, if you have a higher set,.... oh well" and called with a set of 6s, and i did not improve
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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That's the thing - it's not 50/50 against a set. You're in great shape against a pair, OK shape against two pair, bad shape against a set. So it might be helpful to have a better idea what he has before you push. I think stack size is very important though. The pot was $10 when action came to you, and you have to put in at least $5 to keep playing. You obviously have odds to call, but if you know he'll call any raise, how much can you profitably raise?
On further reflection, I think you'd do well to flat call here, hope for an overcall from the first player, and then hope for one of your hearts or queens to land on the turn. If it doesn't then it's a pot odds problem - you call a reasonable bet, fold to an unreasonable one.
The argument for calling instead of raising here is simple: overcalls from the first player improve your pot odds significantly and juice the pot if you land your draw. And you save some money if it doesn't come. Also, since your information on player 2's hand is very incomplete, you can assume the worst and approach it from a pure draw angle, rather than an "I might be the favorite" angle.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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it looked good enough for a push, even though I knew was a dog to win. I took a shot at winning a huge pot and lost, ce la vie right
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xxDFOCxx
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Canada
Posts: 83
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I would raise like 45-50$. You have lots of outs to hit the flush or the straight...
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
I took a shot at winning a huge pot and lost
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There are lots of opportunities to take shots... the key is taking them when they're profitable.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Push and say you have TT.
-'rilla
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lowBoy
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 513
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Hah... I like rilla's line on this one.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Ha! That's brilliant, 'rilla.
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RERAISE5823
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 14
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Keep the pot as small as possible by calling. You want to nail a Q or a heart on the turn or get out of there.
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bair
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 953
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i like pushing
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