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JeffreyGB
Old 04-03-2005, 05:58 PM     Post subject: AKs hand #1 (permalink)  
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Sidenote: Should I have folded preflop to a reraise?

No reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

MP2 ($48.5)
MP3 ($19.95)
CO ($90.25)
Button ($48.75)
SB ($50)
BB ($53.45)
UTG ($40.74)
UTG+1 ($22.5)
Hero ($27.05)
MP1 ($32.37)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K, A. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3, MP1 calls $3, MP2 raises to $7, 5 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $4, MP1 calls $4.

Flop: ($22.75) Q, 6, 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $4, Hero calls $4, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($30.75) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $20, Hero calls to act.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 04-03-2005, 06:26 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Ouch, bad turn card for you.

Something tells me you lose your stack to queens full.

And no, I wouldn't fold to the flop reraise.

When you do that, you might find yourself facing more and more flop reraises. (Atleast at the higher stakes)

Doesn't look like Hero has much of a stack left, you've gotta call.

With deeper stacks, this could be a difficult hand.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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LeFou
Old 04-03-2005, 09:57 PM #3 (permalink)  
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gotta call that PF, esp. as you've got MP1's $ in already.

That's a fairly modest bet on the flop. Most of the games I sit that means a couple jacks in the hole trying to find out of someone's got the queen, and with this strong a draw I'd go ahead and rep it. Sometimes. Probably not without any reads.

Same guy puts you AI on the turn. Tough hand but you've got the nut flush. The only probable boat is the set of queens, and if that's what it is then you both played it perfectly.
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-03-2005, 10:20 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Doesn't look like Hero has much of a stack left, you've gotta call.

-'rilla
Actually, I'd about doubled my buy-in (and yes, lost 1/2 of it pf/on the flop), since I use the unique small stack buy-in strat...
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a500lbgorilla
Old 04-03-2005, 10:48 PM #5 (permalink)  
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You still gotta call. Evne tough it smells a lot like Queens, you never know if it's some moron trying to get action on aces.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-04-2005, 01:39 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Agreed, and that's what I did and QQ is what he had. Just wanted to make sure that call wasn't a mistake.
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dsaxton
Old 04-04-2005, 03:35 AM #7 (permalink)  
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No, you can expect Q-Q or J-J, probably Q-Q, in which case you still have overcards as well as the ace high flush potential (though this probably won't matter much).
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Fnord
Old 04-04-2005, 03:37 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Anyone make a move on the flop?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 04-04-2005, 03:44 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Anyone make a move on the flop?
Usually. Depends on how many times I've seen the opponent fold to aggression.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-04-2005, 04:36 AM #10 (permalink)  
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I thought about making a move on the flop. I even heard a bit of Fnord in the back of my head saying "with 2 overs and a flush draw, a push is good on this flop." My only reservation was that I wasn't sure my overcard outs were good. Honestly, I didn't even think about QQ (was more thinking AA/KK/AK/AQ) until the turn came, at which point it's semi-moot.

And on the response from 'rilla, I mentioned no reads, so yeah...hadn't noticed anything about the opp folding to strong aggression.

I was 4 tabling for the first time (and possibly the last... -17BB/100 for about 1.2k hands) to speed through a 7x, 30% bonus (which, for the record, didn't even cover the amount I lost playing those hands...).

I was playing tighter than normal (18% VP$IP rather than my normal 22%...translating to not playing ATo/KT/KJo/QJo/etc except from the button or CO).

I'm really interested to take the time this week and see where I made bad plays. There were a number of hands like this where I felt I made the right call and just ended up on the wrong side of the track with it. Look for many histories from me this week
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Cocco_Bill
Old 04-04-2005, 12:55 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
I thought about making a move on the flop. I even heard a bit of Fnord in the back of my head saying "with 2 overs and a flush draw, a push is good on this flop." My only reservation was that I wasn't sure my overcard outs were good. Honestly, I didn't even think about QQ (was more thinking AA/KK/AK/AQ) until the turn came, at which point it's semi-moot.

And on the response from 'rilla, I mentioned no reads, so yeah...hadn't noticed anything about the opp folding to strong aggression.

I was 4 tabling for the first time (and possibly the last... -17BB/100 for about 1.2k hands) to speed through a 7x, 30% bonus (which, for the record, didn't even cover the amount I lost playing those hands...).

I was playing tighter than normal (18% VP$IP rather than my normal 22%...translating to not playing ATo/KT/KJo/QJo/etc except from the button or CO).

I'm really interested to take the time this week and see where I made bad plays. There were a number of hands like this where I felt I made the right call and just ended up on the wrong side of the track with it. Look for many histories from me this week

Just as information, you had a 25.556% chance to win on that flop. Still want to push?
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-04-2005, 02:07 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
Just as information, you had a 25.556% chance to win on that flop. Still want to push?
Note that I mentioned it in the context of assuming all my outs (over cards + flush cards) were good, and that when I concluded they weren't, I didn't push. Had they been good, I do like the push here. Gives opp a chance to fold + gives me better than 50% to win (9 flush cards + 6 overs = 15 outs). Fnord's recommended this before. Do you see why?
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LeFou
Old 04-04-2005, 02:11 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Cocco the point of the push is not to get maximum value versus a set of queens. The point of a push is to make opp fold if heshe doesn't have queens. So that you don't need to complete your flush to win.

Pushing nut flush draws is, in my opinion, extremely effective. Say there's $15 in a pot and you push $30 more with the nut flush draw.

The times you get called you have a 35% chance of taking the $75. It doesn't take a lot of fold to make this even-money for you. Maybe 20%? Haven't got ToP on hand right now, I think it's in there.
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wobbler
Old 04-04-2005, 03:38 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
Cocco the point of the push is not to get maximum value versus a set of queens. The point of a push is to make opp fold if heshe doesn't have queens. So that you don't need to complete your flush to win.

Pushing nut flush draws is, in my opinion, extremely effective. Say there's $15 in a pot and you push $30 more with the nut flush draw.

The times you get called you have a 35% chance of taking the $75. It doesn't take a lot of fold to make this even-money for you. Maybe 20%? Haven't got ToP on hand right now, I think it's in there.
seems right to me:
0 = $15*n + $45*35 - $30*65,
solve for n gives n=25,
25/(25+35+65) = 0.2 = 20% correct

in Jeffrey's example, assuming 25% chance of winning if called, I get:
0 = $22.75*n + $42.75*25 + $20*75
n=19, and 19/119 = 0.16 = 16 %
so if opponent folds more than 16% of the time, an all-in is +EV

(correct me if I made a mistake here)
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Cocco_Bill
Old 04-04-2005, 06:35 PM #15 (permalink)  
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There are many ways to make AKs a profitable hand on a flush draw board. Pushing is likely one of them, but the question is does it maximize your profits or are other plausable plays more profitable?
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-04-2005, 07:26 PM #16 (permalink)  
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I agree with not pushing here. Even if my outs were live, I'd still agree because I'm not sure taking a cheap turn card significantly reduces the amount I make, while pushing increases the amount I lose if I don't hit.
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