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zook
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02-08-2007, 04:31 PM
Post subject: AKo tough spot pre-flop
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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None of these guys are total fish. Re-raiser is a solid tagg (14/9/4 over 800+) but I don't have any notes about his 3-betting range/frequency. First caller is 15/7, no specific reads, second caller is 19/2 and calls with marginal hands in position (stacked me with JTo vs. my AA when he flopped two pair on a drawy board).
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $1/$2 - 8 players - Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $97.40
Hero: $200
MP1: $204
MP2: $428
CO: $62
Button: $439.30
SB: $194.25
BB: $333.20
Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, MP1 raises to $24, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds, Hero...
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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i fold
MP1 has KK+ a massive percent of the time to reraise a solid early posiion raiser, and you are out of position.
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Fjaman
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 176
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fold, you raise early pos. only to 7 though, i would probably have bet at least 8-10, and get reraised by a tagg and called by yet another player, i would put the first villain on 1010-AA and AKs and the second on at least QQ, i would lay this down and observe the hand closely to see if i can pick up anything on the patterns from the 2 villains.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fjaman
fold, you raise early pos. only to 7 though, i would probably have bet at least 8-10
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I bet less in early position, esp with hands I don't want to play a big pot with. And at most 200NL full-ring tables, $7 is enough to thin the field. Obv not in this case though 
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Fjaman
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 176
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ok, if its enough to thin the field then its an ok raise, my logic goes something along the line: bigger raise early thins the field more since it takes only one call after your raise to start a massive call fest and all of a sudden your up against 4 opponents... 
On the other hand i might be on the loosest table on the planet as well
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Yeah, I used to think that way but now I'm realizing that loose players are as likely to call a raise to $10 as they are one to $7. And if I get three callers I'd much rather be playing a $28 pot OOP with AK/AQ/AJ when the flop comes down Axx two-toned than a $40 one
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Erudito
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 150
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Given the stack sizes, I would call the raise and see the flop. It is possible that Villain also has the same hand, AK.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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fold or make a spewy push. Large reraise considering your an ep raisor. Definitly do not call.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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fold. A push looks bad, based on my math. I figure there are 3 likely scenarios that can occur if you push PF. My math is approximate(no calculator so ignoring the $7 PF raise lol), and the percentages are based on TAGG's general reraising range (Q-Q+, A-K).
1). Push, all fold PF. Probability: 50%. Result: +$75
2). Push , 1 call and you win. Probability: 10%. Result: +$245
3). Push, 1 call and you lose. Probability: 40%. Result: -$200
Calling range of TAGG
K-K = ~ 30% win
A-A = ~ 10% win
($75 x .5) + ($245 x .1) + (-$200 x .4) = -EV
($37.5) + ($24.5) + (-$80) = -$18
I agree with miffed that you can't take this A-K to a flop. There isn't a flop that can come out that you won't be second guessing the strength of your hand on. (i.e. A-J-4 rainbow = behind J-J(reasonable for callers), A-A (reasonable for PF reraiser. Every hand that beats you also raises you flop bet, and you get no action from Q-Q, 10-10, etc. hands). And you don't get any information about how the flop helped your opponents before you have to act. Position and the number of callers make this a spot where you cannot call preflop.
I don't like raising either because any sizable raise ($80-90) leaves us pretty committed to any A-x-x/ K-x-x flop, and were are behind or tied if we get called PF by TAGG reraiser. We do have the option of bluffing out the LAGG's if they call a PF raise with an AI bet on the flop, though they would be pretty dumb to call with anything less than a big pair PF in which case they aren't folding anyways. So, as just about every choice is bad, i'd fold.
Obviously against a looser reraiser, shoving PF would be a very profitable play, since he folds to your shove much more often than he calls it.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Thanks for the replies. And for the EV analysis Vi-Zero. I tend to think that the re-raiser might be have a slightly wider range than your average 200NL player (maybe JJ+, AQs+, AKo) b/c he seems solid and I have a laggy image. That pushes the all fold to a push probability higher imo, to at least 60%. Still, it's probably neutral EV to marginally positive, so I think a fold is in order here, which is what I did. Flop came with an A, reraiser c-bet, two folds. So most likely AA or AK.
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