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AK top 2 pr scary board, WHAT TO DO?

  
 
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JL
Old 04-21-2006, 04:26 AM     Post subject: AK top 2 pr scary board, WHAT TO DO? #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,095
JL will become famous soon enough
 Villain is a shortstack Fish....Fish dont raise without a good hand usually, but I cant fold this can I?? Am I pot committed?? HELP!! Im playing over my head here, I usually play $25nl and $50nl....


Seat 1: newbe888 ($53.40 in chips)
Seat 2: Brodys1 ($65.85 in chips)
Seat 3: e1759f ($182 in chips)
Seat 4: scrow37 [AC,KS] ($103.70 in chips)
Seat 5: Okonomiyaki ($99 in chips)
Seat 6: xsumdumfukx ($73.10 in chips)
Seat 7: PHA-Q1 ($6.30 in chips)
Seat 8: TDXBeaster ($92.25 in chips)
Seat 9: Kasovana ($24 in chips)
Seat 10: lilmoma32 ($71.85 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
Brodys1 posts blind ($1), e1759f posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
scrow37 bets $4, Okonomiyaki folds, xsumdumfukx folds, PHA-Q1 folds, TDXBeaster folds, Kasovana folds, lilmoma32 calls $4, newbe888 calls $4, Brodys1 calls $3, e1759f folds.

Gotta love getting 3 callers after raising 4x BB UTG!!

FLOP [board cards KD,JS,AD ]
Brodys1 checks, scrow37 bets $16, lilmoma32 folds, newbe888 bets $32, Brodys1 folds, scrow37 bets $83.70 and is all-in, newbe888 calls $17.40 and is all-in.

TURN [board cards KD,JS,AD,6H ]


RIVER [board cards KD,JS,AD,6H,9S ]
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martindcx1e
Old 04-21-2006, 05:06 AM #2 (permalink)  
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martindcx1e
Don't fold this ever against a short stack. I think it's pretty close even if you both have 100BB stacks. He could play other 2 pairs like this and it's $17.40 more to win like $80:
AcKs ~44%
KK+,JJ,AKs,AJs,KJs,QTs,AKo,AJo,KJo,QTo ~56%

EDIT: Since AA & KK are unlikely your % is higher.
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yorib
Old 04-21-2006, 05:11 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Location: Oak Park, IL
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yorib
Since the Villian is clearly not a calling station, we can eliminate JJ/KK/AA from his holdings. That means he either has QT/or two cards higher than J (JQ/JK/JA/QK).

Assuming you have absolutely no reads on him (i.e. you don't know if he bought in for $50 or lost half his stack) given his raise the rest of his money is going in the pot. I can see him doing this with KJ or AJ and possibly JQd. If he was on a draw, he'd just check and get the card cheap. So his hand is made.

It seems foolish to say, but I'd make the exact same decision and instantly regret it. Of course I'd regret folding as well.

Ultimately you ahve to trust your "gut" right?
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bdawg56kg
Old 04-21-2006, 05:50 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JL
Am I pot committed?? HELP!! Im playing over my head here, I usually play $25nl and $50nl....
Are you playing above your bankroll? Adjust the bet amounts to 25NL, and are you even posting this hand? Scared money is lost money.
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